Ukrainian War Developments

A rare update from the Russian side in Mariupol:
70% has been cleared, and the Ukrainians have withdrawn to two districts.
The Azov also put out a view from a different commander. I guess the previous one is "busy"? Didn't say much other than we are winning, please help us, etc.

It also interesting to note this is the highest intensity combat so far in this war yet Ukrainian claims for kills are increasing the least, some days they are even going down!

ArmchairAnalyst said:

If legit, General Rasputitsa and General Winter are joining up

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506453063267241994

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Soooo is that a rant, an actual verbal report to his superiors on the status of his troops, or *gasp* a Ukrainian reading from a script？Im not familiar with the Russian language or their military’s communication SOP’s. However based on a translation I found in the Twitter thread, even I can tell that doesn’t sound proper. Hell, an American militia LARPing in the middle of a forest can do better than that.

AndrewS said:

The EU countries would have to buy rubles from the Russian Central Bank or commercial banks.

But I doubt those banks would accept USD or EUR.

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I have no doubt Russian central back would take dollars or euros because Russia needs those to avoid default on euro or dollar denominated bonds.

But Russia could insist that entitles under the jurisdiction of those countries which sanctioned russian banks can only purchase rubles from those Russian under sanctioned, and only by using swift transactions that these country joined in forbidding.

gadgetcool5 said:

In terms of the information war, the Ukrainians took Vladivostok weeks ago and are completing their third or fourth circumnavigation of the globe.

In terms of the actual situation, who knows.

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Notice not even in Ukrainian propaganda has the ukrainians claimed any significant ability to do tactical artillery support much less interdiction of Russian supplies and troop movements. It appears the Ukrainians have been reduced to fighting what the germans in stalingrad called rattenkrieg. They are no longer conducting military operation in any serious sense.

So it appears to me that if Belorussians invaded in the west and cut Ukraine off, then the Russian infantry and armor can largely sit on their hands and do nothing, while Russian artillery, tactical missiles and airpower whittle ukrainians down until supplies run out for either the civilians or the defenders.

So i suspect the war will enter a period of stasis and russian casualty rate will drop sharply.

Richard Santos said:

Notice not even in Ukrainian propaganda has the ukrainians claimed any significant ability to do tactical artillery support much less interdiction of Russian supplies and troop movements. It appears the Ukrainians have been reduced to fighting what the germans in stalingrad called rattenkrieg. They are no longer conducting military operation in any serious sense.

So it appears to me that if Belorussians invaded in the west and cut Ukraine off, then the Russian infantry and armor can largely sit on their hands and do nothing, while Russian artillery, tactical missiles and airpower whittle ukrainians down until supplies run out for either the civilians or the defenders.

So i suspect the war will enter a period of stasis and russian casualty rate will drop sharply.

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That is what will happen even if the Belarussians don't make an appearance.

I still don't understand why Putin isn't carpet bombing west Ukrainian cities. Navalny would have turned west Ukraine into rubble by now.

Maybe the rumours about Shogiu are true?

Abominable said:

More Ukrainian/CIA propaganda:

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Apparently Shoigu has "disappeared". Not the first time we've heard this in the war about someone close to Putin. I question the logic in trying to destabilise the rulers of a nuclear power during an armed conflict, but here we are.

The one piece of Ukrainian propaganda that the Americans weren't happy with was the nuclear threats when nuclear reactors were taken over by Russian forces. They quickly put out messages to all US embassies and officials not to propagate that. Yet they seem to be happy letting this one spread.

This isn't a new tactic, we all remember last year when Dong Jingwei also "disappeared" for a few days, with rumours he had defected. Was that a trial run?

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Jack Ma needs a golf buddy lol

Stealthflanker said:

The T-90's were supposed to use French made Catherine thermal imager. I recalled however there was already an effort to make local thermal imager. Dunno about the result.

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Didn't Russia already domesticated Thales Catherine prior to 2014? I thought they said all parts are now produced within Russia.

my overall impression is while the Russian army had shown numerous defects at a tactical level, on operational level they were competent. In addition, they have shown the ability to reorient and adapt.

they also still have a great deal of additional capability in reserve. their capacity to carpet bomb is second only the owner of B-52. Their tactical air force also remain largely uncommitted.

While ukrainians put up impressive infantry based resistance, on the operational basis they were not impressive. they seem to have largely lost the ability to do anything more that localized entrenched infantry defence. it appears Ukraine has nothing in reserve to match russia’s ability to further escalate.

What is more, it seems to me the Russians don’t need to change the situation on the ground any more to wear down the Ukrainians

So I might say it’s not that Ukraine defeat is matter of time. i would say the Ukraine has been defeated, just not dead.

the question is how capable Belarussian Army would be ? and whether they are able to do as good or even better as Russian army. They dont seem to really have the numbers.

Stealthflanker said:

the question is how capable Belarussian Army would be ? and whether they are able to do as good or even better as Russian army. They dont seem to really have the numbers.

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They will just old ground and supply link with Belarus probably, so the Russian army can move on. Don't know how many Russian reinforcement are coming but 3 weeks of war with near peer forces take a toll for sure.