Ukrainian War Developments

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plawolf

Lieutenant General
But why did US say in December 2021 and early February 2022 before the invasion that US will not send any troops to defend Ukraine? Ukraine is a non-NATO member and Biden said there is no chance of US intervention to defend Ukraine.

December 2021:
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Early February 2022:
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As has already been pointed out, you cannot trust what the Americans say, only what they do. Putin himself called America an empire of lies let’s not forget.

But now that the die has been cast, Putin can see that NATO truly has zero appetite to challenge him so, and can thus adjust his planning and calculus accordingly.

In the short-medium term, I agree.

In the long-term, Russia and China would need to figure out weapon sales to China's enemies (e.g. Checkmates or Su-57 to India/Vietnam). How they handle competing national interests (Russian desire for export sales vs. China's core territorial disputes in SCS) will determine the viability of a long-term 'special relationship' akin to US-UK. UK doesn't sell America's enemies like Iran or Venezuela any Typhoons or Tempest in the name of export profits does it?
Any joint venture developments would automatically give China a veto on sales if it cared enough about it.

Also, as Russian economic integration with China increases, it should naturally diversify and expand their economic base where weapon sales become far less important economically.

But at the end of the day, Russian arms sales to Vietnam and India doesn’t really threaten China. And to be frank, it’s better they buy Russian weapons than western ones.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Since when American's promises worth anything?
Only 5,000 US troop reinforcement to Poland and Baltics is hardly a sign of US willingness preparing to intervene to defend Ukraine.

In geopolitics, you don't take people's words, but their actions. (e.g., Russia amassing 200K troops, but publically say 'No intention for war'). Action speaks louder than words.
Doesn't matter as long as Russkies sell the same system to China for study
If that is the case, then that's not the same as US-UK relationship then. Does UK plan to sell Tempest to America's enemies (e.g. Iran) while also selling one example of Tempest to US to alleviate concerns?

So therefore, the US-UK relationship is not appropriate model to describe. China-Russia relationship.
On this particular note, talk is always cheap. The US also said they were going to abandon South Korea, which emboldened North Korea to attack. As long as the dice hasn't been cast, Putin could not be certain.
US had a monopoly on deployable nuclear weapons at the start of Korean War.
Does US have exclusive monopoly on nuclear weapons at start of Ukraine War? The prospect of mutual assured destruction (MAD) didn't exist back in Korea (USSR detonated nukes in 1949, but first air-drop bomb in 1951, almost 1 year after start of Korean war).

That said, I think the initial offensive was meant to minimize civilian casualties. The reserves were holding back in case NATO intervened, and as we saw, when that intervention failed to materialize, Russia began committing more troops into Ukraine.
Can you explain why 5K US troop reinforcement to Poland and Baltics is sufficient to intervene in Ukrainian war? The ground reality of US troop movements/reinforcements doesn't suggest any US intention to intervene. How can 5K troop reinforcement fight over 200K Russian troops?
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Only 5,000 US troop reinforcement to Poland and Baltics is hardly a sign of US willingness preparing to intervene to defend Ukraine.
It's clearly more for packing important stuff and establish chain of supplies. Ukraine is there to be a mudhole to weakening off Russia. It's a financial hole too, anything given to Ukraine will never come back.
 

Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
Before this war I thought being Ukrainian was more a political identity than an ethnicity. A bit like being North or South Korean. In the Ukraine if you considered yourself pro western you are Ukrainian and if you are pro Russian you are a Russian living in Ukraine.

However their behaviour during the war has led me to believe that being Ukrainian is more of a death cult. They are the Russian equivalent of Falun Gong.
Here's one of their "protests":
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Can anyone think of any anti-war protest where people behaved like this that wasn't linked to cult activity?

They're a death cult, brainwashed and wrong on so many levels... duct taping people to poles, threatening to castrate Russian POWs, assaulting Roma women with a dildo...




Meanwhile....

 
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sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
They're a death cult, brainwashed and wrong on so many levels... duct taping people to poles, threatening to castrate Russian POWs, assaulting Roma women with a dildo...

No wonder the EU loves western ukranians so much, they are living the european dream of harassing and assaulting Romas and other non-white people freely without fear of being called racist.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
As has already been pointed out, you cannot trust what the Americans say, only what they do.
Indeed, actions speak louder than words. It's what American do that counts, not only what they say.
But now that the die has been cast, Putin can see that NATO truly has zero appetite to challenge him so, and can thus adjust his planning and calculus accordingly.
Nobody expected NATO to intervene. US gov't sending merely 5000 US troops reinforcement to Poland/Baltics is insufficient to fight a 200,000 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Putin likely saw such a weak reinforcement as congruent and consistent with US public statements.
Any joint venture developments would automatically give China a veto on sales if it cared enough about it.
So China should engage in joint venture of Checkmates and Su-57 to have a veto on it. Why not use it's China's economic influence on Russia to have a veto? Or would that be too insulting for Russian ego to be dictated by China on export sales? If that's the case, then offer to give Russia $10 billion to not export Su-57 or Checkmates to India/Vietnam, so Russia can still sustain it's weapons industry and still invest in R&D in innovative technology.
Also, as Russian economic integration with China increases, it should naturally diversify and expand their economic base where weapon sales become far less important economically.
I hope Chinese trade and investment via BRI/AIIB can wean Russia off it's dependence on oil and weapon exports and diversify it's economy to become more stronger to withstand pressure from West and restore it's economy to Great Power status.
But at the end of the day, Russian arms sales to Vietnam and India doesn’t really threaten China.
Fair enough.

Just don't say China-Russia relationship will develop akin to US-UK 'special relationship' when they are selling top arms to SCS dispute claimants.
And to be frank, it’s better they buy Russian weapons than western ones.
This is a false dichotomy. It's better they try to buy neither Russian or Western ones, but try to innovate themselves (good luck!).

Did US say: "Israel should sell Phalcon AWACs to China because better Western AWACs than Russian AWACS?" No, US thought it's better if China tried to innovate AWACs themselves, and just incorrectly assume Chinese can't innovate indigenous alternatives. However, I am willing to make the bet that India/Vietnam will not have indigenous 5th gen options in my lifetime or ever.
 

Darkon112

Junior Member
Registered Member
So China should engage in joint venture of Checkmates and Su-57 to have a veto on it. Why not use it's China's economic influence on Russia to have a veto? Or would that be too insulting for Russian ego to be dictated by China on export sales? If that's the case, then offer to give Russia $10 billion to not export Su-57 or Checkmates to India/Vietnam, so Russia can still sustain it's weapons industry and still invest in R&D in innovative technology.

If Russia gets to have Veto in return. Then more than likely it's possible. Also India is as vital to Russia as it is to China. i suspect. flirting has be gone from all sides. Especially the batshit action EU and Merica just pulled.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Only 5,000 US troop reinforcement to Poland and Baltics is hardly a sign of US willingness preparing to intervene to defend Ukraine.

Can you explain why 5K US troop reinforcement to Poland and Baltics is sufficient to intervene in Ukrainian war? The ground reality of US troop movements/reinforcements doesn't suggest any US intention to intervene. How can 5K troop reinforcement fight over 200K Russian troops?
A single battalion of US G.I. in Kiev can greatly complicate Russian efforts
 
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