Ukrainian War Developments

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Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
LawLeadsToPeace said:

I watched this video all the way through and I’d say that it was pretty good
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Yes he is. in EP-4 he was spot on in the Russian convoy and what are that convoy doing. and in this Episode he went into describing fog of war and point out how skewed people's view on the war and the bad side of shutting down Russian news. Also how such can even be a thing (the reduction of freedom in the face of common enemy).

The last point was for me is pretty fuk'up as it explain how people can live as hyppocrite by propagating Ukrainian propaganda while calling out Russian propaganda which essentially the same heart and soul.
 
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Chilled_k6

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Americans as recently as yesterday were claiming the Russians have not established air superiority. However, as far as I know there haven't been any jets shot down in the past few days by AA systems, and certainly not in air to air combat. A handful of helicopters yes. Russia has fired 900+ SRBMs and cruise missiles thus far according to the Americans, and they are mainly targeting supply, ammo depots and ground troops now. Ukrainian air force (what remains of it) looks to be grounded.

I think the issue with Russian AF is they don't (can't?) fly large sorties with dozens of aircraft at the same time to destroy the remaining isolated AA systems left and turn the ground grind around more decisively in Russia's favour. They have lots of aircraft available, but maybe not able to coordinate them for large scale attacks?
 
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tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
LawLeadsToPeace said:
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Russia says parts of a Ukraine compromise deal are close​

Summary​

  • Ukraine neutrality being discussed - Lavrov
  • Non-NATO security guarantee being discussed
  • Some parts of compromise close to being agreed
  • Rights of Russian speakers also a key issue
  • The euro extended gains on Lavrov's comments
March 16 (Reuters) - Russia said on Wednesday that some parts of a possible peace deal with Ukraine were close to being agreed after Kyiv agreed to discuss neutrality, raising hopes of an end to the biggest war in Europe since World War Two.

"Neutral status is now being seriously discussed along, of course, with security guarantees," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said told RBC news.
"Now this very thing is being discussed in negotiations - there are absolutely specific formulations which in my view are close to agreement," Lavrov said.

He said that President Vladimir Putin had spoken about neutrality, along with security guarantees for Ukraine without NATO enlargement, as one possible variant in February.

The euro extended gains after Lavrov's comments and was up 0.4% to $ 1.1005.

Lavrov cautioned that the negotiations were not easy but that there was "some hope of reaching a compromise".

Ukraine has also made cautious positive statements on peace talks. It says it is willing to negotiate to the end the war, but will not surrender or accept Russian ultimatums.

Lavrov said key issues included the security of people in eastern Ukraine, the demilitarisation of Ukraine and the rights of Russian-speaking people in Ukraine.

Announcing the invasion on Feb. 24, Putin blamed the United States for threatening Russia by enlarging the NATO military alliance eastwards into Russia's backyard.

Putin said there was no option but to launch the military operation because Russian-speaking people in Ukraine had been subjected to genocide by "nationalists and neo-Nazis" since Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea.
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I don't think Russia will want to do a deal at this point. Ukraine is currently filled with anti-Russian hatred and nationalist fervor. Doing a peace deal will mean preserving current Ukrainian state and its strategic mindset. It will be even more pro-west and anti-Russia. The west will also keep pouring Ukraine more and more Weapons and financial aid. Even Pursuing Nuclear weapons could start to happen realistically this time.

Ultimately this kind of deal will only mean temporary pause for a few years and then another war. That war will be even more unfavorable to Russia. It is much more preferable to Russia to destroy Ukraine then allow a energized and nationalistic Ukraine. Breaking it up into smaller pieces or even taking significant Chunk east of Dniper could also be a possibility.

Russia will be forced to do a deal like this if they are taking so many losses and are unable to advance any further at all.

But there is another way Russia stop their troops bleeding too much and still keep the war going. Slow the pace of the war down and keep things slow and grind out Ukraine slowly and only make much safer attacks. Reduce the axis of Advance and only focus on a few axis at a time. Focus on defense on the rest.

Perhaps this what we are seeing now. Other than the south, nothing much is happening East and North these days. I think they intend to Grind out this war into a trickle of slow advance lasting many years. That will also exhaust Ukraine quite a lot and the western support could also reduce due to distraction towards other regions.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Overbom said:
They are sending drones. If they send switchblade drones, have you seen how small they are? You can put them in your backpack and you are ready to go

In any case, I think 100 of them are not enough to defeat Russia. They probably just want to bleed the Russians as much as possible.

And who knows, maybe 1 week later they can send another 100, then 200, 300 etc
That's why Ukraine's western land borders should had been secured from the beginning
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And they'll have the stopping power of something that you can fit in your backpack.
 
SteelBird

SteelBird

Colonel
Reading this article shows that the West really worry that China would lean to Russia. So far as I know China, they will likely stand-by Russia by mouth, no actual action will be taken. So, the West worries too much!

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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Maikeru said:
Not seen any evidence whatsoever for this. But we must take this unsubstantiated claim of a Russian win as absolute Gospel, whilst ignoring the photographic evidence of Russian losses that Oryx provides.
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Big misidentification not to mention I saw another picture of the same tank from a different angle claiming it was destroyed by nlaw. This suggests to me they are taking pictures of the same scene from different angles and passing each with different stories.
 
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Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Tam said:
Big misidentification not to mention I saw another picture of the same tank from a different angle claiming it was destroyed by nlaw. This suggests to me they are taking pictures of the same scene from different angles and passing each with different stories.
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They can put it on fire too... it make another kill. There's a big fog of war right now...
 
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Bill Blazo

Junior Member
Registered Member
Tam said:
Big misidentification not to mention I saw another picture of the same tank from a different angle claiming it was destroyed by nlaw. This suggests to me they are taking pictures of the same scene from different angles and passing each with different stories.
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I think the biggest issue with inferring actual losses from Oryx, Ukraine Weapons Tracker, Military Land, and all the others like them is the huge selection bias resulting from the fact that Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are highly unlikely to publicize their own losses. So if Ukrainian choppers and aircraft are going down in the middle of Ukraine somewhere, the average villager on the ground won't be racing home to post that on Twitter. But every time anything Russian gets shot down, it's all over the Ukrainian twittersphere in a second. I can definitely believe that the Russians have lost around 1,300 ground vehicles in this war, but the idea that Ukraine has only lost about 340 vehicles, the latest count from Oryx, is absolutely laughable. I think it's safe to say Ukraine has lost at least 700 ground vehicles of all types, largely based on the course of the war and the sampling issue I raised above.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Oryx is not impartial. He deliberately undercounts available data on Ukrainian vehicle losses and counts Russian vehicle losses shown from different angles as different vehicles lost. I stopped taking his numbers into consideration when he had less Ukrainian Su-25 losses total than the ones in a single video the Russian Army TV channel posted showing the damage to an Ukrainian airbase. When people pointed that out to him he said he had little evidence some of those aircraft were disabled. Yet he has no issue marking Russian vehicles the Ukrainians photograph as disabled regardless if they show damage or not.
 
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