Ukrainian War Developments

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pmc

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Koala said:
That is a good one. Mr.Putin and his crew, Mr.Lawrow and comrades, took massiv advantage of being in charge. Russia is the most corrupt state in "Europe". From the head downwards. The wolf cannot guard the sheep.
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I am not sure this correct assessment. Most corrupt states in Europe will be Germany and France once you look closely at them.
France has unreliable Nuclear plants that is increasing its electricity prices to 10 times of Russia.
Germany has lost all the skills of complex construction and has cost blow outs and delays. Germany premier Auto industry increasingly depended on Asian parts and markets. Not to mention Russia.
Both France and Germany increasingly depended on Middleast/China/Turkey in a way that Russia is not.
I am not even going to US and Israel that can squeeze them further. You have to look things very objectively before coming to a conclusion. this oligarchs very minor. hardly $10b worth of homes and Yachts.
 
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Insignius

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As soon as the Azov nazi were knocked out of the outskirts of Mariupol, it suddenly turned out that people were leaving the city by the tens of thousands.
Within a day, 31,367 civilians, including 89 foreigners, were evacuated from the unblocked city. These included 71 OSCE representatives, nine citizens of Greece and nine citizens of Pakistan.

Only 36 people out of 31,367 evacuated during the day went to settlements under the control of the Kyiv authorities in the Dnipropetrovsk region, and 99% of the rescued people wished to go to Russia, and also to settlements under the control of the Russian Army, to the liberated districts of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.
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Overheard this.
 
Koala

Koala

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FairAndUnbiased said:
Actually, reporting from before the conflict and when media had 0.1% independence instead of 0.0% we have...

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The article is from 2015. In the meanwhile Russia took the first place, leaving Ukraine only the humilating second one. Corruption is one more commonality of both states. What belongs together, should not be separated any longer. ;)

In the Western world, we do have stakeholders or lobbyists. Same procedure, other term. So no harm or shame to anyone. We are all baaaaadddd....:cool:
 
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Abominable

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Lethe said:
At this point it seems unlikely that Russia will be in a position to directly interdict supplies across Ukraine's western border in the near future. Certainly the prospect is distant enough that western provisions of armaments and materiel will almost certainly have time to arrive in volumes sufficient to further complicate an already difficult task.
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Did you miss that base being hit 30 miles from the Poland border? You wouldn't need to interdict the supplies, just destroy the roads. It seems nearly all of it is being transported in civilian vehicles.
Lethe said:
In the absence of a negotiated settlement, this then presents Russia with a number of unpalatable options. Interdiction by conventional airpower, cruise missiles, etc. is likely to prove both costly and inadequate. A remnant Ukrainian "bulwark" state may not be a stable solution, and would form a staging ground for a formidable insurgency, akin the use of the Pakistan border region by the Afghan Taliban.
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That's unlikely to happen. Ukraine may be the Afghanistan of Europe, but Ukrainians aren't Afghans.
Lethe said:
In this context, I believe Russia's leaders will at least consider the prospects for nuclear interdiction of supplies, and for nuclear compellence in disrupting further western transfers. The United States considered the threat and use of nuclear weapons to interdict the troublesome Ho Chi Minh trail in the Vietnam War. It is worth attending to both why they were considered and why they were not used:

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Now, there are some differences between the situation the US faced in Vietnam, and that which Russia would face in a protracted conflict with a western-supplied Ukraine, Ukrainian rump state, or Ukrainian insurgency. Namely, Russia has a lower level of relative conventional airpower capability than the US did in the Vietnam War. Which is to say, "use conventional airpower to do the job instead" is not nearly as viable an alternative for Moscow as it was for Washington. Coupled with the fact that the outcome of the present conflict in Ukraine is ultimately much more important to Moscow than the dispensation of Vietnam was to Washington.
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My point would that it would signal the arrival of NATO as a participant of the conflict. If NATO and Russia were at war, then it'll quickly escalate to nuclear. A repeat of the mig saga.

Maybe a better alternative would be to use this as a pretext for China to supply lethal weapons platforms to Russia. One or two squadrons of WL-2 operated by Chinese based outside of Ukraine would cover the whole country and speed things up. There would be no violation of China's position of neutrality as the drones will be the property of Russia and no Chinese soldiers would set foot in Ukraine. It's also exactly what Turkey is doing right now with the TB-2s.

It would also be good combat experience for Chinese operators against a NATO adversary, and a good advertisement for the platform if it performs well.

All in all I think it's a fair deal.
 
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