Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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Really, all nazis
There is a huge difference between nazis, facists, right-wing parties etc.
Just like calling all socialdemocrats, socialists, leftist revolutionaries etc. for communists.
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It seems to me like much of the Russian war effort on the eastern front is riding on the outcome of Mariupol. If they can capture that city, it would free up thousands of Russian troops for additional operations to encircle and trap the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas. The longer Mariupol holds out, the dimmer Russian prospects look in the conventional phase of the war.
When more accounts start coming back from these guys hopefully western media will be forced to admit how bad things really are for Ukraine.
Intrepid
Major
It is frightening how unreasonable people can be who are responsible for many other people.
Lethe
Captain
The more I think about the prospects for conflict resolution, the bleaker it looks.
At first glance there is reason to be optimistic. Russia now has a clearer sense of the costs of pursuing their strategic aims, in both military, economic, strategic and political terms, while Ukraine now knows how serious Russia is about enforcing its "red lines", and the limits of western support that it can expect.
On closer examination, however, it is the raft of western sanctions that have been applied, and the rhetoric behind them, that threatens the prospects for peace. These sanctions do not apparently serve a coercive purpose, but rather a punitive one. That is to say, the sanctions are not intended to encourage Russia to change its behaviour, but are rather intended to punish Russia for actions already taken, and weaken it going forward. The distinction is important. Even if certain key figures such as Biden were minded to offer Russia an "off-ramp" (i.e. do X and Y sanction will be removed), the number of actors/institutions and sanctions/mechanisms involved, many of which are now subject to the vagaries of domestic opinion, severely undermine the credibility of any such proposal. Would Putin (or his successor) really believe that, for example, by withdrawing from Ukraine the EU will abandon its strategic drive for freedom from Russian coal/oil/gas/etc.?
The consequence is that Russia will likely treat the sanctions that have been imposed, and the new strategic/geopolitical reality they promise to create, as a cost already incurred, with the prospect of any revision playing little role in the Russian strategic calculus. Accordingly, Russia will see little reason to deviate from its goals in Ukraine, and indeed is likely to seek a more complete Ukrainian capitulation than would've been accepted before the war began. "This has already cost us so much, we must ensure it was worth it." While it is tempting to imagine that higher than expected combat losses and greater than expected Ukrainian resistance may encourage a softening of Russia's position, it must be remembered that Russia can escalate so much further. Russia can move to a true war economy and put millions of men under arms, they can bring nuclear weapons to bear. With a vital strategic interest at stake, and plausibly the very survival of the present regime, and no more bridges left to burn, it is likely that Putin will double, triple, quadruple down on this invasion and seek the total capitulation of Ukraine.
The final point to note is that many in western decision-making circles know all of this. They know that the present path, whereby Russia is having great difficulty achieving its objectives but no plausible alternative, will see Ukraine reduced increasingly to ashes, with a horrific toll in human lives and culture, and they do. not. care. I'm not sure where the phrase first came from: that NATO is willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, but it captures an ugly truth. Russia will likely emerge from all this a shadow of its former self, and that is precisely what many decision-makers in the west intend. Ukraine may not emerge at all, and nobody is very concerned about that.
At first glance there is reason to be optimistic. Russia now has a clearer sense of the costs of pursuing their strategic aims, in both military, economic, strategic and political terms, while Ukraine now knows how serious Russia is about enforcing its "red lines", and the limits of western support that it can expect.
On closer examination, however, it is the raft of western sanctions that have been applied, and the rhetoric behind them, that threatens the prospects for peace. These sanctions do not apparently serve a coercive purpose, but rather a punitive one. That is to say, the sanctions are not intended to encourage Russia to change its behaviour, but are rather intended to punish Russia for actions already taken, and weaken it going forward. The distinction is important. Even if certain key figures such as Biden were minded to offer Russia an "off-ramp" (i.e. do X and Y sanction will be removed), the number of actors/institutions and sanctions/mechanisms involved, many of which are now subject to the vagaries of domestic opinion, severely undermine the credibility of any such proposal. Would Putin (or his successor) really believe that, for example, by withdrawing from Ukraine the EU will abandon its strategic drive for freedom from Russian coal/oil/gas/etc.?
The consequence is that Russia will likely treat the sanctions that have been imposed, and the new strategic/geopolitical reality they promise to create, as a cost already incurred, with the prospect of any revision playing little role in the Russian strategic calculus. Accordingly, Russia will see little reason to deviate from its goals in Ukraine, and indeed is likely to seek a more complete Ukrainian capitulation than would've been accepted before the war began. "This has already cost us so much, we must ensure it was worth it." While it is tempting to imagine that higher than expected combat losses and greater than expected Ukrainian resistance may encourage a softening of Russia's position, it must be remembered that Russia can escalate so much further. Russia can move to a true war economy and put millions of men under arms, they can bring nuclear weapons to bear. With a vital strategic interest at stake, and plausibly the very survival of the present regime, and no more bridges left to burn, it is likely that Putin will double, triple, quadruple down on this invasion and seek the total capitulation of Ukraine.
The final point to note is that many in western decision-making circles know all of this. They know that the present path, whereby Russia is having great difficulty achieving its objectives but no plausible alternative, will see Ukraine reduced increasingly to ashes, with a horrific toll in human lives and culture, and they do. not. care. I'm not sure where the phrase first came from: that NATO is willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, but it captures an ugly truth. Russia will likely emerge from all this a shadow of its former self, and that is precisely what many decision-makers in the west intend. Ukraine may not emerge at all, and nobody is very concerned about that.
asif iqbal
Lieutenant General
If Russia wants a swift victory in Ukraine they need to stop the weapons shipments coming in
Otherwise Russia is fighting the uphill struggle
and the only way they can stop the weapon shipments coming in is secure the Western border
and the only way they can secure the western border is by having drones
This is why I think it is possible the Russia may have requested drones from China
Otherwise Russia is fighting the uphill struggle
and the only way they can stop the weapon shipments coming in is secure the Western border
and the only way they can secure the western border is by having drones
This is why I think it is possible the Russia may have requested drones from China
Zelensky did promise to end the war, he didn’t say peacefully. Do not forget that Javelins were already in the country by 2018. Social media posts by Ukrainians (Azov?) were boasting of western origin weapons like TB-2 and Javelin to wipe out the separatist forces once and for all.Zelensky promised Ukraine during the elections that he would end the military conflict in eastern Ukraine, voters believed him, but he deceived them
First task is to destroy the Ukrainan military in the east.
They won't get too much supply from the West, the lines are too long for that, and afterwards the western ukrainan speakers are the ones those caused this much grief, without organised miltarz and heavz weapons.
and the bloody war in the east will destabilise the EU, with millions of refuges.
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