Damn near all from Russia, almost from the moment he took power ‘til he was deposed. Heavy armor, jet fighters and bombers, many outdated, and fairly outdated SAM systems.
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
- Start date
- Status
Sr US defense off'l: The weight of evidence points to the strong possibility of a "significant invasion." About 40 to 50 percent of Putin's troops have moved into attack positions. The destabilization campaign "has begun." Putin now has 120-125 Battalion Tactical Groups amassed.
Here what I think. I dont want to write a very long post so I will just write some oversimplified opinions on each power's national comprehensive power and then write some of my thoughts
- Russia: extrenely large relative (if not absolute) decline.
- EU relative decline on the global stage but increasingly dominating in a regional scale
- US relative decline on the global stage but it is still the hegemon and has quite a lot of "savings" accumulated.
- China: meteoric rise in the global stage.
The West has managed to draw Ukraine closer to it due to various reasons. Ofc the big one is orange revolution and the CIA but the birth of all problems stem from Russia's weak economy, lack of reforms and people not liking the "Russian system" (corruption)
It all boils down to finding a random Ukrainian and asking him:
"20 years in the future, what system would you like your country to follow, the EU/West or the Russian system?" The majority of them would say "EU/West"
What Putin is facing now is that as more time passes, Ukraine will inevitably get closer to EU and like it even more. So in my opinion, Putin has seen this and has decided to end this matter now that he has time and a window of opportunity to do so (high inflation in the west)
He has accepted/took a step back that Ukraine won't be close to Russia but on the other hand, he won't simply surrender Ukraine to the West. As such he wants Ukraine to not join NATO (and probably EU). A Finland-style solution would be a good compromise for Ukraine, meaning that it would become neutral.
As for the US, I have written before (last year) that it would be ideal if it could knock out Russia by collective western sanctions to it and "only" having to sacrifice a single disposable pawn, Ukraine and increased inflation for one or two years.
On the other hand, US fears inflation so it depends on how they balance these issues. IMO even with inflation fears, this is a precious window of opportunity where the US can economically delete Russia from its future rivalry with China
Honestly, I think that this opportunity is far too important for the US Deep state to ignore. This could help them in the long run on the rivalry with China. This is why I think that US would love to have Russia attack Ukraine. It would finally be able to rope in EU to impose crippling (harsher than the Crimea sanctions) sanctions on Russia
In the end, I hope can Putin can be smart on this and have a proper game plan. The whole world knows that an actual invasion would be terrible for Russia's economy so it is very possible (if not certain) that Putin is just trying to show that he is ready to invade in order to extract concessions from the West
Anyway, these are my short thoughts. I am sure that with these being so short, people can find plenty of loopholes and problematic points but please keep in mind that I am talking from an oversimplified long term strategic point of view
Last edited:
'Nyet Means Nyet: Russia's NATO Enlargement Redlines' - Ukraine Cable from 2008 written by CIA director William J. Burns, then US ambassador to Moscow
Operational group of the MChS (emergencies ministry) has landed in Rostov to organise the reception of refugees from the DPR/LPR Currently about 5000 people are on the move. That number could rise into the 100's of thousands
I’m prepared, now, to survive for three months, at least, in the aftermath of a nuclear exchange. But, I don’t think that another 30 gallons of water would hurt. And, as I live in ‘Murcia, I ain’t sharin’! I’ll share my bullets, tho’, one each!
If I take a direct hit, oh well!
If I take a direct hit, oh well!
Last edited:
No need to be overdramatic. At most there will be higher inflation
- Status