Ukrainian War Developments

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taxiya

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Great analysis by Karlin who puts out the notion that an invasion could very well be likely given historical and political currents:
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Looks to me like another ground-laying work (many already) for Biden's "victory". In order for Biden to claim victory, there must be a failed Russian invasion, so Biden must print that image of Russian invasion into everybody's mind.
 

taxiya

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China speaking in UN security council live
The speech published by China's mission to UN in Chinese.
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English version can be found through UN.org

In the speech, China acknowledged the diplomatic effort by Russia with France and Germany. China believe that European countries will make independent strategic decisions that serves their own interests.

China believe that every event has a reason. NATO expansion is a cause to the current Ukraine problem that can not be overlooked. NATO's expansion after the cold war is against the desire of common security. No country can build their security on the cost of others. Security must not be build by enhancing and expansion of military alliance. Some country does something and say something else etc. etc. etc.


The words that China said saying without saying are:
  • Europe (other than Russia) is not independent yet.
  • Europe (other than Russia) is not serving their own interests.
  • NATO expansion is the cause, and must stop.
  • NATO is the devil against peace.
  • USA is the root cause of the whole thing, in Europe and beyond.
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
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Well, we might have reached a point, similar to 1914, where the UN Security Council will lose its teeth (not that the League Of Nations actually had any), and even any symbolic significance.

With both China and Russia identifying NATO of being a primary contributor to global security instability, I don’t see many unanimous, non-vetoed resolutions being passed.

How might this bode for the Iranian nuclear question?
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Well, we might have reached a point, similar to 1914, where the UN Security Council will lose its teeth (not that the League Of Nations actually had any), and even any symbolic significance.

With both China and Russia identifying NATO of being a primary contributor to global security instability, I don’t see many unanimous, non-vetoed resolutions being passed.

How might this bode for the Iranian nuclear question?
Iran had already a nuclear resolution and it got busted open by the US who was a signatory. Right now international resolutions and treaties are worth Cracker Jack surprises. Russia have tried to bring their worries on the table multiple times and received political cheap talks. Right now they gained a bit more attention. Not sure how all of this will end tho.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Well, we might have reached a point, similar to 1914, where the UN Security Council will lose its teeth (not that the League Of Nations actually had any), and even any symbolic significance.

With both China and Russia identifying NATO of being a primary contributor to global security instability, I don’t see many unanimous, non-vetoed resolutions being passed.

How might this bode for the Iranian nuclear question?
It may not be too different from the past UN history. USSR and USA had been vetoing one another for most of UN history, now it is just Russia-China combo in place of USSR. Veto from one is enough to make UNSC paralyse.

The difference between UN and the League of Nations is the "veto" in UN. Although veto can paralyse UN, lack of veto enabled a great power being condemned by the league of nations and force it to leave (Japan) leading the League to collapse. Without veto power, if eventually one of the great five is overwhelmingly isolated in the UN, that would be the last day of UN.

Iranian question will continue its own course regardless what happens in Ukraine. Iran might be encouraged if Ukraine crisis ends up in favour to Russia and China, but even if it ends up the other way, Iran would not back down from its current demand.
 
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