Ukrainian War Developments

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Phead128

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Moderator - World Affairs
Either this is a big brain move or a disaster waiting to happen

"A Ukrainian vice prime minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, said that Mr. Zelensky was considering putting the question of whether to join NATO membership to a vote of the Ukrainian people."

Russia will accuse the referendum vote on NATO membership to be illegitimate and farce, just like how US/West accused the Crimean referendum vote on re-joining Russia to be illegitimate and farce. It's propaganda all around. It's "Might makes Right" pure naked power politics at this point. 97% of Ukrainians can vote for NATO membership, but Russia will say it's fake/corrupt/manipulated vote, and still carve Ukraine into pieces anyways.

Verdict: Big brain move, but will end badly no matter what happens.
 

Suetham

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Probably not an axis of attack but it could be useful as a diversion. Russia supposedly now have 140k+ troops spread out over a massive land border of about 2000km not including Belarus. That is a massive front to supply logistically so they'll probably consolidate and concentrate their forces for the real thing.
The problem is that Russian military forces in Belarus are small considering what these forces aim to achieve: Kiev.

30,000 Russian troops being dispersed to try to outflank or distract the Ukrainians is something that can go wrong in many ways. I'm sure Kiev has put a lot of troops in this area, so I can't say that dividing forces would be a good strategy. I would consider it a good strategy if around that area, Ukraine had deployed troops that could total a maximum of 20,000, about 33.3% less troops deployed than the Russians.
The number of troops also seem a bit low to mount a full scale offensive of Ukraine. The Ukrainians have 200k+ active troops near the front. Numbers aren't everything of course but I would think Russia would follow Lanchester's Law and some more for something as risky as a large scale offensive. Didn't Shoigu claim to have 300k troops mobilized for Vostock 2018 exercise in the far east? Likely inflated but I'm sure Russia can deploy more than their current number.
Yes. A Rada parliamentarian claimed that the forces concentrated on the border are insufficient for an invasion, he said that in 2021 the concentration was much greater than that year and would have ideal conditions to invade, with Moscow deploying something around 220,000 troops in the area. border. In addition to this parliamentarian, the secretary of foreign affairs also stated as well as the national security adviser.

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ZeEa5KPul

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Either this is a big brain move or a disaster waiting to happen

"A Ukrainian vice prime minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, said that Mr. Zelensky was considering putting the question of whether to join NATO membership to a vote of the Ukrainian people."
What's the point? It's already in the Ukrainian constitution. He's really grasping straws here; not that I blame him, he's in a really bad situation.
The problem is that Russian military forces in Belarus are small considering what these forces aim to achieve: Kiev.

30,000 Russian troops being dispersed to try to outflank or distract the Ukrainians is something that can go wrong in many ways. I'm sure Kiev has put a lot of troops in this area, so I can't say that dividing forces would be a good strategy. I would consider it a good strategy if around that area, Ukraine had deployed troops that could total a maximum of 20,000, about 33.3% less troops deployed than the Russians.

Yes. A Rada parliamentarian claimed that the forces concentrated on the border are insufficient for an invasion, he said that in 2021 the concentration was much greater than that year and would have ideal conditions to invade, with Moscow deploying something around 220,000 troops in the area. border. In addition to this parliamentarian, the secretary of foreign affairs also stated as well as the national security adviser.

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Sounds like a bunch of Ukrainian cope. Ukraine is to copium as Afghanistan is to opium.
 

Suetham

Senior Member
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Republican senators have introduced a bill in the upper house of the US Congress that provides for economic and political sanctions against Russia, which could be introduced in the present day, the document also refers to additional assistance to Ukraine.

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Real costs taxes on Russia:

Immediately stops construction of the Nord Stream 2 project and would mandate sanctions on the project without a waiver should Russia invade. Prior to an invasion, the bill suspends sanctions for as long as the German government continues to suspend the certification process.
Sends a clear deterrent message to Putin that an invasion of Ukraine will result in massive economic consequences to Russia’s economy, including:
Sanctions on major Russian banks; and
Secondary sanctions on banks that continue business with sanctioned Russian banks.
Putin’s cronies, enablers, and major banks before Russia further invades Ukraine to ensure Putin pays a price now for hybrid attacks already launched.
Allows any chairman or ranking member of a national security committee to force a determination from the president on whether Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and fulfills conditions to trigger a major escalation.

Supports Ukraine before, during, and after a Russian escalation:

Provides $500 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) for Ukraine, including $250 million in emergency funding, with $100 million for emergency lethal assistance for critical capabilities like air defense, anti-armor, and anti-ship capabilities.
Creates a new Ukraine Resistance Fund to help Ukraine resist attempts to occupy or subjugate any new territory Russia seizes, while sending a clear message to Putin that his military will pay a price for advances into sovereign Ukrainian territory.
Authorizes a new Lend-Lease authority for Ukraine.
Expedites congressional review of arms sales and security assistance to Ukraine.

Counters Russian malign influence and aggression throughout Europe:

Doubles funding for U.S. military exercises in Europe.
Creates a new State Department FMF program for Eastern Europe to help European allies strengthen their own defensive capabilities and encourage greater burden-sharing.
Boosts funding for State Department efforts to counter Russian disinformation, including the Global Engagement Center, and expands broadcasting by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Republicans called the document "Never Give Up the Territory of Europe", which means "we will never give up the territory of Europe". The abbreviation of the bill has a certain symbolism - NYET (from Russian "no").
 
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