Ukraine Revolt/Civil War News, Reports, Data, etc.

Local residents look at the remains of a rocket shell on a street in the town of Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine. Seven civilians have been killed and 26 wounded in rocket strikes on the town of Kramatorsk on Tuesday, the government-controlled regional administration said in a statement.
Picture: REUTERS/Gleb Garanich

Civilians wave at pro-Russian fighters in Uglegorsk 6km south west from Debaltseve. US President Barack Obama said yesterday that the United States had no desire to 'weaken' Russia, but the West had to impose a cost for Moscow's aggression in Ukraine.
Picture: DOMINIQUE FAGET/AFP/Getty Images

Standing with his tank, a Ukrainian serviceman waits near Artemivsk, eastern Ukraine. The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France agreed to meet in Belarus on Wednesday to try to broker a peace deal for Ukraine amid escalating violence there and signs of cracks in the transatlantic consensus on confronting Vladimir Putin
Picture: Gelb Garanich/Reuters


Back to bottling my Grenache

Stakhanov last night


Back to bottling my Grenache

Dannhill said:

The Minsk ceasefire deal, point by point
Published time: February 12, 2015 12:01

Here is the breakdown of the deal:

1. A comprehensive ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. Comes into force at 00.00 (Kiev time) on February 15.

2. A pullout of heavy weapons. The parties agreed to a compromise disengagement line. Kiev is to pull artillery and other hardware from the current frontline while the rebels would do it from the frontline as it was in September, before they gained ground in a January counter-offensive. The OSCE-monitored safety zone would be 50 km to 150 km wide for weapons, depending on their range. The pullout is to be completed by March 1.

3. The OSCE will use its drone fleet and monitors on the ground, as well as satellite images and radar data to ensure that both parties stick to the deal.

4. Kiev and the rebels will negotiate the terms for future local elections in the rebel-held areas, which would bring them back into Ukraine’s legal framework. Kiev would adopt legislation on self-governance that would be acceptable for the self-proclaimed republics.

5. Kiev will declare a general amnesty for the rebels.

6. An exchange of all prisoners must be completed by the fifth day after full disengagement. That’s in 19 days, if the weapons pullback takes the full time provided for by the deal.

7. Humanitarian aid convoys will be allowed full access to the needy in the war-affected areas. An international monitoring mechanism will be provided.

8. Kiev will restore economic ties, social payments and banking services in the dissenting areas, which it cut earlier in response to the elections held by the self-proclaimed republics. Their respective governments will resume taxation and payment for utilities. This provision is subject for further negotiation.

9. After the local elections are held in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, Kiev is to restore control over their borders with Russia. The transition may take time, which would be needed for a comprehensive constitutional reform in Ukraine.

10. All foreign troops, heavy weapons and mercenaries are to be withdrawn from Ukraine. Illegal armed groups would be disarmed, but local authorities in Donetsk and Lugansk would be allowed to have legal militia units.

11. Keiv will implement comprehensive constitutional reform by the end of the year, which would decentralize the Ukrainian political system and give privileges to Donetsk and Lugansk. The privileges include language self-determination, the freedom to appoint prosecutors and judges, and to establish economic ties with Russia.

12. The OSCE’s election monitors are to see that local elections in the self-proclaimed republics are up to international standards. The exact procedure for the elections is subject to further negotiations.

13. Talks between the “contact group” will be intensified in various ways./

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If these points are accurate...and if both sides adhere to them (which is always the big "if"), then I believe this deals provides a pathway back to sanity and peace.

I hope it holds.

On Saker:



The Minsk "Agreement"

by Alexander Mercouris

Already there is debate about who has "won" and who has "lost" in the Minsk talks.

The short answer is that as the German foreign minister Steinmeier correctly said there is no breakthrough but the Russians and the NAF have made progress.

One point needs to be explained or reiterated (since I have explained it already and many times).

The agreement does not make provision for federalisation or autonomy for the Donbass but still only refers to the grant of a law according the Donbass temporary special status within the Ukraine.

There could not be an agreement for federalisation out of the Minsk negotiations because they are primarily a summit meeting of five powers - Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, German and France. The Russians have always insisted that this is an internal conflict and civil war within the Ukraine and between Ukrainians and it is for the Ukrainians and them alone to resolve their internal differences between them through negotiations.

Given that this is Russia's stance, Russia and the other powers cannot impose a federalisation scheme on the Ukrainians and they have not - at least overtly - sought to do so. What the stated objective of the Minsk talks is - at least from the Russian point of view - is to set up conditions and a process for the constitutional negotiations that the Russians have been pushing for (and which were supposedly agreed on 21st February 2014 and on 17th April 2014 and 5th September 2014) to take place.

The Russians have been insisting on these negotiations since the February coup. The Russians are not publicly pre-ordaining the outcome of those negotiations because were they to do so they would not be negotiations at all. Whatever a negotiation is, it is by definition not something whose outcome is preordained.

If the Russians sought to preordain the outcome of the negotiations by insisting on federalisation as the outcome they would be imposing their views on the parties and would be admitting that they are a party to the conflict, which is what they have consistently said they are not. They would in effect be doing what the US has tried to do in the Syrian conflict, which is insist on an outcome to negotiations (Assad's resignation) before negotiations even take place. The Russians have always opposed this sort of behaviour and they are being consistent in not openly adopting it now.

Depending on what the parties agree between them, the negotiations could in theory result in decentralisation, federalisation, a confederation or even outright independence for the Donbass (the Russians floated that idea as a serious possibility in the summer). The latter is not by the way contrary to the reaffirmation of respect or even support for the Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity that we saw in the statement today. If the internal parties to the conflict were to decide on a formal partition as the solution to the Ukraine's conflict, then international actors like Russia could recognise it without calling into question their previous declared support for the Ukraine's territorial integrity, as they previously did when Czechoslovakia split up.

In reality everybody knows that the Russians' preferred option is federalisation and the Europeans are now edging towards that solution. Whether it is a viable solution is another matter.

Once this key point is understood everything else starts to fall into place.

Last spring and summer the Russians sought a ceasefire so the constitutional negotiations could begin. The Europeans are now also demanding a ceasefire (they were less keen on the idea last spring and summer). There is now therefore an agreement for a ceasefire.

Back in August the Russians demanded the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the Donbass. There is now an agreement for the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the Donbass.

If that happens it will be a major weakening of the Junta's position in the Donbass because it is the Junta whose military has the big preponderance in heavy weapons. If the opposing sides are left with light infantry forces, the advantage on the ground will pass decisively to the NAF.

The political machinery that was supposed to have been agreed in Minsk on 5th September 2014 to create the conditions for the constitutional elections is being revived. Thus there is to be a law of special status for the Donbass pending the constitutional negotiations to clarify its current legal status and provide legal mechanisms for its internal administration by the NAF (Ukraine passed one previously and then reneged on it), more elections etc.

There is a new provision, which is the first indications of some sort of timeline for this process with the constitutional negotiations supposed to have been concluded by the end of the year.

There are also some ideas for a beefed up monitoring process via the OSCE.

Will any of this happen? Highly doubtful I would say. Consider what happened after the Minsk process of 5th September 2014. The Junta did not withdraw its heavy weapons. It did not retreat to the agreed boundary line. It imposed an economic blockade on the Donbass (it is now obliged to lift it). It rescinded the law on the Donbass's special status. It reinforced its army and in January it attempted to renew its offensive.

Is there any more prospect of this process succeeding than did the one that was agreed in Minsk in September?

The big difference between this process and the previous process is that the Europeans are now formally involved. Its success or failure ultimately depends on whether the Europeans are going to insist on the Junta fulfilling its obligations. They spectacularly failed to do so before and I have to say I think it is very unlikely they will do so now. If the Europeans fail to insist on the Junta fulfilling its obligations then the process will unravel as the previous Minsk process did and with the balance of advantage continuing to shift every day on the ground towards the NAF we will see a further renewal of the fighting and a further NAF advance in the spring.

In the meantime control of the border, disarmament of "illegal armed groups" etc are now overtly linked to the successful conclusion of the constitutional negotiations, which is supposed to happen before the end of the year. Of course if the constitutional negotiations succeed, then when all these things happen we will have a different Ukraine from the one we have now. At that point the control of border posts etc will be in the hands of differently constituted authorities from those that exist today.

Will those negotiations actually happen? Will they succeed if they do? I doubt it. The Junta will resist them tooth and nail if only because those negotiations put in jeopardy the whole Maidan project and by their mere fact call into question the Junta's legitimacy.

It depends in the end on what the Europeans do. This has been true of the conflict from the start.

That it depends on what the Europeans do is in itself a good reason to doubt this process will succeed. The probability is more conflict down the road but in the meantime Poroshenko's admission that there is "no good news for the Ukraine" from this process tells us who is winning.

From Saker again:



Full text of the Minsk-2 agreement

, the following is based on a translation of the Russian document:

Complex of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreement

1. Immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in certain areas in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine and strict implementation of it starting at 00.00, Kiev time, February 15th

2. Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both parties at equal distances to create a security zone of at least 50km from each other for artillery systems of 100mm calibre or more, a security zone 70km wide for multiple-launch rocket systems and a security zone 140km wide for multiple-launch rocket systems Tornado, Uragan, Smerch and tactical missile systems Tochka.

For the Ukrainian troops these distances apply from the actual line of contact. For the armed forces of certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine they apply from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk memorandum of September 19th, 2014.

Withdrawal of heavy weapons above shall begin no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and be completed within 14 days.

The OSCE, with the support of the Three-Party Contact Group, will contribute to this process.

3. The effective monitoring and verification of the ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy weapons will be ensured from the side of the OSCE from the first day of the withdrawal, with the help of all necessary means including satellites, drones, radar systems etc.

4. On the first day after the withdrawal a dialogue is to begin on the modalities of local elections in accordance with Ukrainian law and [in particular] Ukrainian Law ‘On the temporary regime of local government in some areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions’, as well as on how these areas are to be run in the future on the basis of that law.

Immediately and not later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution is to be adopted in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine indicating the territories covered by the special regime in accordance with the Ukrainian Law ‘On the temporary regime of local government in some areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions’, based on the line set in the Minsk memorandum of September 19th, 2014.

5. Pardons and amnesties will be granted through the enactment of a law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that took place in some areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine.

6. Hostages and illegally detained persons will be released and exchanged based on the principle ‘all for all’. This process must be completed no later than the fifth day after the withdrawal.

7. Provide secure access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian assistance to the needy on the basis of an international mechanism.

8. Determination of the modalities of the full restoration of socio-economic relations, including social transfers such as pensions and other payments (receipts and income, timely payment of all utility bills, renewal of taxation within the legal framework of Ukraine).

To this end, Ukraine will regain control of the parts of its banking system in conflict-affected areas, and there will possibly be an international mechanism to facilitate such transfers.

9. Restoration of full control over the state border of Ukraine by the government throughout the conflict zone, which should begin on the first day after the local elections and be completed after a comprehensive political settlement (local elections in some areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions on the basis of the Law of Ukraine and constitutional reform) at the end of 2015, subject to paragraph 11 — in consultation and agreement with the representatives of individual areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the framework of the Three-Party Contact Group.

10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed forces, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE. Disarmament of all illegal groups.

11. Constitutional reform will be conducted in Ukraine, and a new constitution will enter into force by the end of 2015 which is intended as a key element of decentralisation (taking into account the special characteristics of certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions as agreed with representatives of these areas). Also a permanent law is to be adopted by the end of 2015 on the special status of certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in accordance with the measures specified in Note [1].

12. On the basis of the Law of Ukraine ‘On the temporary regime of local government in some areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions’ questions regarding local elections will be discussed and agreed with certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the framework of the Three-Party Contact Group. Elections will be held in compliance with the relevant standards of the OSCE in monitoring by the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.

13. To intensify the activities of the Three-Party Contact Group, including through the establishment of working groups to implement the relevant aspects of the Minsk Agreement. They will reflect the composition of the Three-Party Contact Group.

Note 1:

Such measures, in accordance with the Law ‘On the temporary regime of local government in certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions’ include the following:

— Exemption from punishment, harassment and discrimination of individuals associated with the events that took place in some areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions;

— The right to self-determination of language;

— Participation of local governments in the appointment of heads of prosecutors and courts in certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions;

— The possibility for the central executive authorities to conclude with the relevant local authorities an agreement on economic, social and cultural development of certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions;

— The State shall support socio-economic development of certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions;

— Assistance from the central government for cross-border co-operation in selected areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions and the regions of the Russian Federation;

— The creation of people’s militia units to address local councils in order to maintain public order in certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions;

— The powers of local council deputies and officers elected in early elections, appointed by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on this law, cannot be terminated.

Signed by the participants of the Three-Party Contact Group:

Ambassador Heidi Tagliavini

The second President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma

Ambassador of the Russian Federation, to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov

Alexander Zakharchenko

Igor Plotnitsky

Dannhill said:

Signed by the participants of the Three-Party Contact Group:

Ambassador Heidi Tagliavini

The second President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma

Ambassador of the Russian Federation, to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov

Alexander Zakharchenko

Igor Plotnitsky

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So this time all the major players, including the Novorossiya leaders, did in fact signed the treaty?

What will happen to the Novorossiya government as it exists now? It sounds like the militias will be allowed to remain, but under whose command?

Jeff Head said:

...

I hope it holds.

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Jeff while I also hope people will stop killing each other in Donbass, I went through numerous comments, four languages, many countries, ... and I'm afraid most of them didn't like the deal from yesterday, from Russian Stalinists to Senator McCain

Jura said:

Jeff while I also hope people will stop killing each other in Donbass, I went through numerous comments, four languages, many countries, ... and I'm afraid most of them didn't like the deal from yesterday, from Russian Stalinists to Senator McCain

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Now that makes me wonder, would Americans wish to have John McCain as POTUS instead?

Ambassador Bhadrakumar on the situation:

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The 16-hour marathon talks through last night and this morning in Minsk regarding conflict resolution in Ukraine by the leaders of the countries involved in the so-called ‘Normandy format’ – Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine – ended in an agreement. The 13

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have carried forward the twelve-point Minsk accord of last September. But there is ‘additionality’ too insofar as timeline has been given for compliance by the warring sides and other protagonists.

The terms of the latest agreement confirms that Russia negotiated from a strong position — contrary to the blistering western propaganda all along wanted us to believe. The ‘additionality’ in regard of the future of the eastern regions to be decided by the end of the year doubtless is a major gain for Russia, as the induction of Ukraine into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization [NATO] is virtually ruled out forever if the constitutional reform goes through. This has been the core Russian demand.

However, this is also going to be biggest sticking point, since the diehard nationalist lobby in Kiev, which is strongly represented in the current set-up, will deeply resent making any concessions as regards devolution of powers to the eastern regions. President Petro Poroshenko will find himself between the rock and a hard place on this issue, as he is already under fire from the nationalist camp ruling the roost in Kiev. Again, if Washington wants to derail the entire peace process, it won’t have to look far.

Unsurprisingly, therefore, Russia has made the sealing of Ukraine’s border with Russia conditional on the constitutional reform coming through. Which is to say, when the chips are down, Moscow has ensured that it’s ‘everything, or, nothing.’

Secondly, the ceasefire will come into force only on Saturday and between now and then, it is

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that the warring parties will make attempts to gain tactical gains on the ground. Debaltseve, in particular, poses a problem, because Kiev does not even acknowledge that several thousands of its troops in that village have been surrounded by the separatist forces.

In fact, Russian President Vladmir Putin’s remarks,

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, indirectly touched on the Debaltseve issue. Conceivably, the separatists may eventually allow – under Russian pressure – to evacuate the besieged Ukrainian troops to safety.

But on the whole, while there is no dearth of doomsday predictions about the latest agreement withering away (as had happened with last September’s accord), the probability is that this German-French-Russian deal will hold and the fighting will stop — at least in immediate terms. The separatists have the upper hand and they will want to

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, while the forces deputed from Kiev have been battered out of shape and will also want to recoup.

As I said above, the catch lies in Kiev’s willingness to concede autonomy to the eastern regions. The kinetics of the Ukraine conflict will ultimately depend on the issue of constitutional reform.

Without doubt, Putin comes out on top, as Moscow’s consistent stance that it has no territorial ambitions has been vindicated. What emerges, on the other hand, is that Russia wants to preserve Ukraine’s territorial integrity and is willing to contribute to that end – provided, of course, Russia’s legitimate interest in a Ukraine that gets along well equally with both the West and Russia is ensured. German and French leaders seem to get the point. But what about their trans-Atlantic partner in Washington? President Barack Obama is almost in the same boat as Poroshenko. Today’s accord will be torn to pieces by his neocon critics who want the US to go to war, if need be, to stop Russia’s ‘aggression. Some

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have already begun appearing in the north american media. The Ukrainian lobby is very influential in Canadian politics, too.

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– February 12, 2015

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