Ukraine Revolt/Civil War News, Reports, Data, etc.

pla101prc

Senior Member
This is very interesting and I think really nails the arguement about who controls the Airport
I this video we see Givi and Motorola capture the Ukrainian Army Colonel who was presumably in command and who was the very same officer that Motorola was filmed negotiating with a month or so ago


I picked this up via the Saker and he has some very interesting comments about the half heartedness of this apparent offensive. I have no idea if his notions are right, but it is something I will be bearing in mind when looking at forthcoming events.
A crucial piece of intel we could extrapolate from this video is a possible disintegration of ukrainian army's chain of command, which, by rule, is a harbinger of defeat unless similar conditions also exist on the other side. Ukraine's battle command can no longer control its units simply through standard procedures of order issuance, but instead now relying on dissemination of false intel to deceive its soldiers into conducting operations they would otherwise refuse. Attempting to sustain this "controlled" offensive operation (which i believe was what kiev had originally envisioned it to be) is futile, and consequently will require kiev to change course within matter of days, either to dramatically escalate its effort or pull back once again.
absent from this very limited range of options is an alternative that is both militarily and politically acceptable. intensifying the current offensive, as a reaction to its failure, forgoes the attacking side the prerogative of choosing the time, place and scope of its operations, therefore surrendering its initiative almost from the get go. equally undesirable is the option of pulling back, which is tantamount to admitting defeat and further undermines the legitimacy of poroshenko's administration. if one were to look for the definition of "caught between a rock and a hard place" look no further than here.
 

Dannhill

Junior Member
As referred to by SampanViking, this is Saker's take on the "offense" launched by Kiev which seems to consist of targeting civilians with massive artillery and rocket strikes but not the militia.
The main Kiev thrusts were directed at capturing the airport but very clear that they have been beaten back completely with militia gaining ground at Mariupol where Kiev forces are pulling back from the outskirts. Peski is almost taken by the militia.

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Dannhill

Junior Member
From Saker, it appears the militia caught a very big fish, a Right Sector brigarde commander no less!


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By
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Translated from Russian by
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At first he was described as a battalion commander. But it’s not so. Oleg Mikats is the commander of the 93rd Brigade. He was the third on the Right Sector party list during the recent Rada elections [he is shown in illustration above in the top row, second from the left]. So I wish to congratulate Novorossia fighters on their good catch. And I hope they realize what a big fish they caught.

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Right Sector Party list

The Ukrainian exterminators were captured during an attempt to break through to the airport. Poroshenko’s advisor Biryukov tried to explain yet another defeat (“Damn you, you Russian bastards!”). But the advisor either did not know or failed to mention that one of the prisoners turned out to be Oleg Mikats, the commanding officer of the 93rd Brigade who took part in the well known meeting with Motorola and Kupol. I hope everyone understands that brigade commanders do not lead “tens of soldiers” (as Biryukov claimed) into an attack (a Ukrainian brigade has a full personnel strength of 3,000 soldiers). Is that so hard to understand? So what kind of advice is he giving Poroshenko? And what’s the value of a brigade commander who took his troops straight into captivity.

The story gets even worse for the exterminators: this was a real assault, with tanks and everything. And they failed yet again. It failed spectacularly, with the capture of a brigade commander, one of 11 in active service.

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Background: Oleg Mikhailovich Mikats (born 23 October 1975, Novograd-Volynskiy, USSR)—Ukrainian exterminator, Ukrainian Armed Forces colonel, commander of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade. Participant of the war on the Donbass. Became known as one of the commanders of the assault on the Donetsk Airport.

Givi took in the Ukrainian Nazis and looked their commander in the eye, asking him a few direct questions. Motorola, who was supposed to have been killed several times, only asked him “So, you took your people straight to the slaughterhouse?”.

“Today for the first time in my life was felt open shame for a Ukrainian serviceman. The commander of the 93rd Brigade Oleg Mikats publically threatened me and a colleague from foreign media with a physical assault. With tens of witnesses, he told me that if he sees us one more time (he was referring to all journalists) in the village of Peski, he will personally shoot us” wrote the Ukrainian journalist Trubachev.

Now he can feel shame for a second time.

Translator's Note: It does appear possible that the entire 93rd Brigade was destroyed or at least decimated in the battle, though it is unlikely the unit was at full strength of 3,000 soldiers or that it had its full complement of vehicles and artillery. Ukrainian brigades are usually little more than battalions, comparable to individual Novorossia battalions in terms of numerical strength though certainly not fighting ability or determination. Mikats' capture suggests he, a rising star in the Right Sector, tried to prove his organization would succeed where the regular military had failed. Imagine the hero's welcome he'd have gotten in Kiev had he succeeded in retaking the Donetsk Airport. Though one should not assume his political career is over--the Right Sector will not hesitate to pin all blame for yet another military disaster on both the military leadership and the civilian one, up to and including the commander-in-chief Poroshenko.

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SampanViking

The Capitalist
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A crucial piece of intel we could extrapolate from this video is a possible disintegration of ukrainian army's chain of command, which, by rule, is a harbinger of defeat unless similar conditions also exist on the other side. Ukraine's battle command can no longer control its units simply through standard procedures of order issuance, but instead now relying on dissemination of false intel to deceive its soldiers into conducting operations they would otherwise refuse. Attempting to sustain this "controlled" offensive operation (which i believe was what kiev had originally envisioned it to be) is futile, and consequently will require kiev to change course within matter of days, either to dramatically escalate its effort or pull back once again.
absent from this very limited range of options is an alternative that is both militarily and politically acceptable. intensifying the current offensive, as a reaction to its failure, forgoes the attacking side the prerogative of choosing the time, place and scope of its operations, therefore surrendering its initiative almost from the get go. equally undesirable is the option of pulling back, which is tantamount to admitting defeat and further undermines the legitimacy of poroshenko's administration. if one were to look for the definition of "caught between a rock and a hard place" look no further than here.

The possible collapse of command is the key element that comes out of this and is probably more significant than the sector collapse around the Airport; which is what appears to be happening right now.
It is significant as the collapse in command can make all the difference between a limited sector reverse and major contagion along an entire front or multiple fronts.

Also, for the removal of any doubt about the scale of what has happened (and of course right on cue)
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Its The Russians!
 

Dizasta1

Senior Member
Question... why are they fighting so bitterly over an airport that must by now be so heavily damaged as to be practically unuseable?

Once the airport has been secured, the military which controls that airport, would quickly consolidate it's position and building defenses, which would expand in a ripple form. And as time passes on, the defenses reinforced and protecting the site from both land and air assaults. That's when or simultaneously, the airport's runway would be repaired and put back online. Provisions would be made to establish the site as a military base, with a functioning fighter-detachment deployed.

The consequences of a fully operational joint-military base for the Army & Air Force, would provide wide ranging tactical and strategic options for the military controlling the airport.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
The question is now: Will Germany have the strength to reach the obvious conclusion that continuing support of the Kiev regime is madness.

Supporting the democratically-elected government of a country with great significance given its location between the EU and Russia? Perish the thought!

There's no reason for Germany to stop supporting the Ukrainian government, especially in the face of continued Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Supporting the democratically-elected government of a country with great significance given its location between the EU and Russia? Perish the thought!

There's no reason for Germany to stop supporting the Ukrainian government, especially in the face of continued Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine.

You seem to forget that the current lot in power overthrew the democratically elected government through some very nasty and underhanded tactics.

The BBC is now reporting 9k Russian troops with 500 tanks in Ukriane. The situation must be dire indeed for Kiev to have to invent such a formidable foe to blame their imminent defeat upon.

At least this latest series of headlines coming out of Kiev solves one mystery that goes all the way back to the Iraq war - we now at last know what happened to the former Iraqi information minister nicknamed 'comical Ali'. Seems he now has found gainful employment speech writing for the new Ukrain President.
 
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