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Taking down the arguments against Trident
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The case for Trident – disposing of common arguments against renewing Britain’s nuclear weapons capability and the Royal Navy’s Successor submarines.
In 2016 Parliament is likely to approve the construction of 4 replacement of ‘Successor’ ballistic missile submarines for the Royal Navy. Despite majority public support, a very vocal minority opposes British nuclear weapons and the subject will again be hotly debated in the coming months.
The current Vanguard class submarines, built during the 1990s needs to be replaced in order to safely and reliably maintain deterrent patrols. This project does not involve procurement of any new warheads or an upgrade in nuclear capability. The US-made Trident II D5 missile is the delivery vehicle for British-made nuclear warheads carried aboard British-built and manned submarines. In this piece we detail and then counter the classic anti-Trident arguments.
(It should be noted that in the context of this discussion “Trident” is used as shorthand for British nuclear weapons; the submarines, missiles, warheads and supporting infrastructure.)
“Trident is a waste because it has never been used”
In reality our nuclear deterrent is in use every day although obviously the level of nuclear threat to Britain has risen and fallen during different eras. In the post-Cold War 1990s, the deterrent may have seemed less relevant but Trident was sensibly maintained. As the last 5 years have demonstrated, events can change quickly and unpredictably. There are now more nuclear-armed nations than at the end of the Cold War with many other nations aspiring to own them. Some nuclear powers such as India, Pakistan and Israel are unlikely adversaries, but North Korea, Iran (still attempting to build nuclear weapons) and most importantly, Russia are a threat.
The benefit of a deterrent, or indeed “Why things don’t happen” can be a hard case to make. Without thorough examination of the issues many critics make the mistaken assumption that if we abandon Trident there would be no consequences. What is certain is that the nuclear balance, to which the UK has contributed, has prevented major world conflict since WWII. Across Europe are the graves of thousands who have died in a depressingly regular cycle of war and conflict since recorded history began. The scale of war grew pretty steadily until 1945 when the existence of nuclear weapons put an abrupt end to state-on-state conflict in the Western hemisphere. The frightening balance of mutually assured destruction worked throughout the great tensions of the Cold War, nuclear weapons were not used and have remained unused.
Although the majority of home owners will never experience a catastrophic fire that destroys their house, almost everyone agrees it is prudent to pay a small part of your income in insurance premiums that provide reassurance against disaster.
“Trident is an outdated weapon of the Cold War which is over”
UK involvement in counter insurgency conflicts in Iraq and Afghan has given birth to the dangerous fallacy, that the era of state-on-state conflict is over. The new visionaries suggest we should prepare lightweight ‘agile’ forces, equipped with drones and robots purely for asymmetric and cyber conflicts with terrorists and ‘non-state actors’. This vision of future warfare has little use for nuclear weapons or even conventional force structures. Unfortunately this ignores the reality that Russia, China and other states are spending heavily on both conventional and nuclear forces. While the unconventional conflicts in the Middle East have all the headlines and cannot be ignored, UK politicians and media pay far less attention to the large-scale modernisation of Russia’s forces. Owner of the world’s largest stock of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons, Russia is flexing its military might in ways unseen since the Soviet era, including frequent incursions close to UK waters and airspace. Putin has casually discussed the
and threatened
, should it join the NATO missile defence shield. It’s an uncomfortable truth that another kind of Cold War is already underway.
“Trident can’t protect us against terrorism”
Absolutely right. Trident has a single purpose and that is as a deterrent against other nuclear-armed states. It is a complete ‘red herring’ to suggest we should abandon Trident because it is cannot protect us from other threats that it was not designed to counter. To take the funding for Trident to spend on anti-terrorism measures would be completely disproportionate. Although terrorism remains a serious domestic threat, it is often over-played by media and politicians. Statistically a tiny number of people will be killed or injured in the UK by acts of terrorism, whereas the threat of war from another state risks the entire population and way of life.
We do not get rid of the antidote to one disease because it cannot protect us from another type of disease.
“Trident will cost £100Bn, think of all the hospitals we could build instead”
The
“£100 Billion cost of Trident” figure carelessly banded about by the CND and the SNP is a shabby propaganda tactic designed to make the cost sound disproportionately large. £100 Billion is a very rough estimate of the entire 30-year lifetime cost of the project. Other govt expenditure is rarely discussed in this way. No one talks terms of the £5 Trillion NHS or the £7 Trillion welfare bill we face if we attempted to estimate their cost over the next 30 yrs. A more rational way to consider the cost, is that our national deterrent will amount to around 0.13 per cent of total government spending. The upfront costs of building the replacement submarines will be around £30Bn, spread over 10 years, and at its peak, never more than 10% of the defence budget, averaging 6% of defence spending overall. Considering that we insure ourselves against nuclear destruction, the Trident programme while not cheap, represents very good value for money.
Scottish CND operate under the
“bairns not bombs” banner, the fallacious implication being we have to choose between our children’s future or unwanted weapons. Not only does Trident help protect our children from the terrible threat of nuclear war, but the money saved by decommissioning would make relatively small impact on the public finances. With their claims about North Sea oil revenue in tatters, the SNP now like to give the false impression that cancelling Trident could solve Scottish economic problems. Even if we were daft enough to give up our nuclear weapons, the immediate decommissioning cost of our extensive nuclear infrastructure would be at least £10Bn. That’s before even considering economic impact of several thousand job losses, with Scotland hardest hit. Independent analysts think it could be more than a decade before the UK could see any net savings from the removal of Trident."