Trump 2.0 official thread

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
From your article:

"We could go outside.”
“To do what?” asked Pulte. “To talk?”
“No,” Bessent replied. “I’m going to fucking beat your ass.”

Putin be like, "Somebody arrange a dinner with me and Scott Bessent."
russias-prime-minister-vladimir-putin-smiles-as-he-takes-part-in-a-judo-training-session-at.jpg
 
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Nevermore

Junior Member
Registered Member
NK giving up its own nukes will be the precondition to China allowing them to annex the South.
North Korea has no geopolitical motive to betray China, yet China's control over North Korea remains relatively limited. Generally speaking, North Korea will align with China on most matters, particularly when China faces severe external threats. I believe North Korea would courageously step forward to form a military alliance with China. The issue, however, is that China is now sufficiently powerful and has no need to seek military alliances to safeguard its sovereignty and security. On the contrary, North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons has significantly increased the likelihood of Japan and South Korea acquiring nuclear capabilities. This very scenario poses a threat to China's very existence.
 

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
They should wait till Americans go to Hanwha, set honey pots, and detain them for prostitution as payback.

The South Koreans reportedly tried that on more than a couple of occasions years ago with US military and diplomatic personnel posted to Seoul, and things definitely did not go well for them when Uncle Sam found out.

There's a reason why USFK doesn't like American troops patronizing South Korean prostitutes, despite being somewhat more tolerant of Filipina "juicy girls" working bars just outside of American installations like Camp Humphreys and Osan Air Base.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
The South Koreans reportedly tried that on more than a couple of occasions years ago with US military and diplomatic personnel posted to Seoul, and things definitely did not go well for them when Uncle Sam found out.

There's a reason why USFK doesn't like American troops patronizing South Korean prostitutes, despite being somewhat more tolerant of Filipina "juicy girls" working bars just outside of American installations like Camp Humphreys and Osan Air Base.

I thought it had to do with higher plastic content.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
North Korea has no geopolitical motive to betray China, yet China's control over North Korea remains relatively limited. Generally speaking, North Korea will align with China on most matters, particularly when China faces severe external threats. I believe North Korea would courageously step forward to form a military alliance with China. The issue, however, is that China is now sufficiently powerful and has no need to seek military alliances to safeguard its sovereignty and security. On the contrary, North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons has significantly increased the likelihood of Japan and South Korea acquiring nuclear capabilities. This very scenario poses a threat to China's very existence.

North Korea is already in an de facto military alliance with China as it has the unique privilege of being the only country on earth who has a formal mutual defence treaty with China.

NK pursuing its own nukes has always been a headache for China, as it significantly complicates Chinese diplomacy in the region. That is not to say it has not been useful at times, as NK nukes were instrumental in deterring American military misadventures during the Bush Jr years.

But SK and Japanese nukes was never on anyone’s bingo cards, even in the Bush Jr years. Not only would China absolutely not tolerate it, America itself would have curbstomped any nuclear breakout attempts by either as it would never tolerate vassals having that kind of power, as that would allow them to actually say no to daddy America. Today that boat has not so much sailed as sunk, since Chinese hard power is at a point that it can forcibly dismantle any attempts at nuclear breakout be either or both countries, even with full American military backing.

To be brutally honest, I think China would secretly want one or both of them to have a go at nuclear breakout. As that would give it the perfect pretext to effectively demilitarise them and either remove key staging grounds and bases for American forces in the region, or if America wants to jump in themselves, utterly devastate American military forces as well into the bargain. At which point it can force peaceful reunification on its terms immediately afterwards.
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
In that scenario the chances of either obtaining nuclear weapons will be precisely zero. Any attempt to do so by either country will result in the full range of Chinese countermeasures from sanctions to embargo’s to kinetic Chinese pre-emptive strikes to prevent breakout. You can thank America and Israel for setting that precedent.

In the case with SK, forcing China to employ the military to de-nuclearfy them will almost certainly immediately lead to total annexation by North Korea, as the PLA will need to fully dismantle SK’s air force and air defences to achieve its military objectives, and after the PLA has done that, it will be a cake walk for Kim’s battle hardened troops. So I think SK will be easily deterred once China’s seriousness is firmly established.

Japan might be harder to deter and also to deal with, but if anything, Chinese resolve will also be far stronger to not allow a nuclear Japan, so if it takes the modern equivalent of Operation Downfall to get the job done, then that’s what it will be.

But the far more likely outcome is that both SK and Japan pivot back to their historic position as vassals of China after American retreat. Because it’s frankly absurd for anyone to rationally think either of them have any real military option to cross Chinese red lines without full American support.
China has no reason to do any of this, including an invasion of Japan.

I'm absolutely certain that Chinese planners would rather see the ROK and Japan go nuclear than deal with the Americans.

What the Chinese want most is for the Americans to stay out of Asia, because then Chinese hegemony will naturally be established, even if it means having other nuclear-armed states in its strategic environment.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
China has no reason to do any of this, including an invasion of Japan.

I'm absolutely certain that Chinese planners would rather see the ROK and Japan go nuclear than deal with the Americans.

What the Chinese want most is for the Americans to stay out of Asia, because then Chinese hegemony will naturally be established, even if it means having other nuclear-armed states in its strategic environment.

Then you are absolutely wrong. Nuclear weapons armed SK and Japan are an absolute red line for China, especially given how slavish they worship America and are in turn controlled by it.

What assurances will China have that America will not use assets and useful idiots within the political and/or military leadership of either or both to launch a nuclear first strike against China and think they can get away with it by claiming those are Japanese and SK nukes and have nothing to do with America?
 

Nevermore

Junior Member
Registered Member
China has no reason to do any of this, including an invasion of Japan.

I'm absolutely certain that Chinese planners would rather see the ROK and Japan go nuclear than deal with the Americans.

What the Chinese want most is for the Americans to stay out of Asia, because then Chinese hegemony will naturally be established, even if it means having other nuclear-armed states in its strategic environment.
The mere establishment of modernised missile bases and the construction of new large naval vessels by Japan and South Korea are viewed as grave provocations and threats to China. Should Japan and South Korea acquire nuclear weapons, this would signify the complete disruption of the security equilibrium surrounding China, constituting an intolerable and significant breach of China's sovereign security.
 
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