From your article:
North Korea has no geopolitical motive to betray China, yet China's control over North Korea remains relatively limited. Generally speaking, North Korea will align with China on most matters, particularly when China faces severe external threats. I believe North Korea would courageously step forward to form a military alliance with China. The issue, however, is that China is now sufficiently powerful and has no need to seek military alliances to safeguard its sovereignty and security. On the contrary, North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons has significantly increased the likelihood of Japan and South Korea acquiring nuclear capabilities. This very scenario poses a threat to China's very existence.NK giving up its own nukes will be the precondition to China allowing them to annex the South.
They should wait till Americans go to Hanwha, set honey pots, and detain them for prostitution as payback.The fun begins when Hanwha starts dragging their feet on the $5 billion US shipbuilding.
They should wait till Americans go to Hanwha, set honey pots, and detain them for prostitution as payback.
The South Koreans reportedly tried that on more than a couple of occasions years ago with US military and diplomatic personnel posted to Seoul, and things definitely did not go well for them when Uncle Sam found out.
There's a reason why USFK doesn't like American troops patronizing South Korean prostitutes, despite being somewhat more tolerant of Filipina "juicy girls" working bars just outside of American installations like Camp Humphreys and Osan Air Base.
North Korea has no geopolitical motive to betray China, yet China's control over North Korea remains relatively limited. Generally speaking, North Korea will align with China on most matters, particularly when China faces severe external threats. I believe North Korea would courageously step forward to form a military alliance with China. The issue, however, is that China is now sufficiently powerful and has no need to seek military alliances to safeguard its sovereignty and security. On the contrary, North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons has significantly increased the likelihood of Japan and South Korea acquiring nuclear capabilities. This very scenario poses a threat to China's very existence.
China has no reason to do any of this, including an invasion of Japan.In that scenario the chances of either obtaining nuclear weapons will be precisely zero. Any attempt to do so by either country will result in the full range of Chinese countermeasures from sanctions to embargo’s to kinetic Chinese pre-emptive strikes to prevent breakout. You can thank America and Israel for setting that precedent.
In the case with SK, forcing China to employ the military to de-nuclearfy them will almost certainly immediately lead to total annexation by North Korea, as the PLA will need to fully dismantle SK’s air force and air defences to achieve its military objectives, and after the PLA has done that, it will be a cake walk for Kim’s battle hardened troops. So I think SK will be easily deterred once China’s seriousness is firmly established.
Japan might be harder to deter and also to deal with, but if anything, Chinese resolve will also be far stronger to not allow a nuclear Japan, so if it takes the modern equivalent of Operation Downfall to get the job done, then that’s what it will be.
But the far more likely outcome is that both SK and Japan pivot back to their historic position as vassals of China after American retreat. Because it’s frankly absurd for anyone to rationally think either of them have any real military option to cross Chinese red lines without full American support.
China has no reason to do any of this, including an invasion of Japan.
I'm absolutely certain that Chinese planners would rather see the ROK and Japan go nuclear than deal with the Americans.
What the Chinese want most is for the Americans to stay out of Asia, because then Chinese hegemony will naturally be established, even if it means having other nuclear-armed states in its strategic environment.
The mere establishment of modernised missile bases and the construction of new large naval vessels by Japan and South Korea are viewed as grave provocations and threats to China. Should Japan and South Korea acquire nuclear weapons, this would signify the complete disruption of the security equilibrium surrounding China, constituting an intolerable and significant breach of China's sovereign security.China has no reason to do any of this, including an invasion of Japan.
I'm absolutely certain that Chinese planners would rather see the ROK and Japan go nuclear than deal with the Americans.
What the Chinese want most is for the Americans to stay out of Asia, because then Chinese hegemony will naturally be established, even if it means having other nuclear-armed states in its strategic environment.