Trump 2.0 official thread

[burritocannon]

Say what you will about the frictions, but nothing negates the fact that for most of history the US has allowed millions of people to immigrate and through hard work attain levels of education and a middle class QOL exceeding what was available to them back in their home countries. Now yeah, such an experiment seems to be reaching its limits, but the success of America's past ability to attract foreign talent and entrepeneurs is still something China needs to take notes on as it upgrades its industries.

my rebuttal to this is that the idea that "it was american multiculturalism that allowed for the success of the cold war" is a false narrative.
my current theory is that all of america's apparent success post-ww2 was not built upon the "american dream" and other post-ww2 policy. rather, all success thus far has ridden on the massive, convulsive outpour of human labor attained during ww2, which means it is the product of an america that operated under authoritarian scheme, as a homogenous (a white, christian) culture. it is effectively, "daddy's inheritance" that the successors of the greatest generation, rather than augmenting, instead sought to spend -- hence the pivot to "consumerism" -- transforming materiel into political power. the inheritance was so vast and lavish it easily paid for the liabilities of successive follies and made them look successful, lies like the "middle class" (a fiat class of people who are less sovereign than even a beggar) and "progressive reforms". after all, if it looks like it hasn't fucked you yet, it must be alright, right? well, the key word is yet, and nations operate on much longer timescales than the individual man. it seems to me the inheritance has finally run out and it's time to see what the debts are.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

We have observed recent rumours suggesting that Trump intends to shift US strategy from containing China and Russia towards homeland defence.
I have a question. Should the United States pursue strategic retrenchment and reduce its security commitments to South Korea and Japan, how likely is it that these nations would acquire nuclear weapons? Global nuclear non-proliferation relies upon America's global influence; should the United States gradually withdraw from its position of world leadership, it could well trigger a new wave of nuclear proliferation.

China would Bomb the hell out ROK and Japan before they allow them to get nukes. If US can bomb Iran thousands of miles away to prevent nukes, you bet China will go to extreme lengths to prevent its enemies so close its borders to have nukes.

 

[Moonscape]

If Japan seriously attempts to get nukes, not only will it never happen (because China will go to war to stop it), it can say good bye to the Ryukyu islands at a minimum when it surrenders.

 

[plawolf]

The probability is quite high that ROCK and Japan will obtain nuclear weapons.

In reality, I believe that even if there were no retreat and China invaded Taiwan and the Americans inert by the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, both the ROK and Japan would be re-evaluating the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons, because they would know that the American will to defend them is nil.

In that scenario the chances of either obtaining nuclear weapons will be precisely zero. Any attempt to do so by either country will result in the full range of Chinese countermeasures from sanctions to embargo’s to kinetic Chinese pre-emptive strikes to prevent breakout. You can thank America and Israel for setting that precedent.

In the case with SK, forcing China to employ the military to de-nuclearfy them will almost certainly immediately lead to total annexation by North Korea, as the PLA will need to fully dismantle SK’s air force and air defences to achieve its military objectives, and after the PLA has done that, it will be a cake walk for Kim’s battle hardened troops. So I think SK will be easily deterred once China’s seriousness is firmly established.

Japan might be harder to deter and also to deal with, but if anything, Chinese resolve will also be far stronger to not allow a nuclear Japan, so if it takes the modern equivalent of Operation Downfall to get the job done, then that’s what it will be.

But the far more likely outcome is that both SK and Japan pivot back to their historic position as vassals of China after American retreat. Because it’s frankly absurd for anyone to rationally think either of them have any real military option to cross Chinese red lines without full American support.

 

[plawolf]

Knowing how greedy the shareholders are the toxic gas they pump into the showers might not be functional. Might end up dying from suffocation and heat exhaustion or dehydration instead.

Sounds about right. Too cheap and inhuman to even spare a bullet for each person to at least make it quick and (relatively) painless.

 

[plawolf]

The racial/gender division is a distraction created by the ruling class to stop plebs from coming together and rebelling against the true masters.

 

[FriedButter]

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Potential Trump tariff refund bill could top $1 trillion as Supreme Court fight looms​

The United States government has already collected tens of billions of dollars from President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs.”

But that money — and a lot more — could end up being refunded if the Supreme Court agrees with lower courts that many of the levies on imports from other countries are illegal.

How much could that end up being?

Anywhere between $750 billion to a whopping $1 trillion, warned Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a declaration filed with the Supreme Court last week.

That eye-popping total could include the more than $72 billion in tariff revenue collected so far by U.S. Border and Customs enforcement since Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement, according to data as of Aug. 24.

It would also include money projected to be collected from the at-risk tariffs by next June.

“Unwinding them could cause significant disruption,” Bessent told the Supreme Court.

Bessent’s declaration was part of a request by the Trump administration to have the Supreme Court quickly rule the tariffs are legal, and not wait until next summer, the normal time frame for such a decision.

The sooner the court rules, the less money the government could be required to refund if a majority of justices find the tariffs to be illegal.

Refunding tariffs is not an unprecedented situation for the U.S. government. But the amount of tariffs the Trump administration could be forced to refund is.

Under former President Joe Biden, importers of some Chinese goods were granted refunds on Section 301 tariffs during a limited period, according to a 2022 Holland & Knight alert. But those refunds were relatively paltry.

Bessent said he is “confident” that the Trump administration will get the Supreme Court to reverse the lower court’s rulings.

But if the Supreme Court says that refunds are required, “we’d have to do it,” Bessent told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on Sunday. And that would be “terrible,” he added.

Two lower courts have ruled Trump overstepped his presidential authority when he invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify imposing steep levies on virtually every U.S. trading partner.

Last week, the Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to reverse those decisions — quickly.

“The stakes in this case could not be higher,” Solicitor General D. John Sauer wrote in the administration’s petition to the high court. “To the President and his most senior advisors, these tariffs thus present a stark choice: With tariffs, we are a rich nation; without tariffs, we are a poor nation,” Sauer wrote.

“The President predicts that if “the United States were forced to pay back the trillions of dollars committed to us, America could go from strength to failure the moment such an incorrect decision took effect,′ and ‘the economic consequences would be ruinous, instead of unprecedented success.’ ”

The Supreme Court has not indicated when it might act on the Trump administration’s request to take the case.

But the fact that the Trump administration did not wait until mid-October to ask the high court to take the case “at least increases the odds that we could see a decision from the Supreme Court by the end of the year,” said Ryan Majerus, a partner in the international trade team at King & Spalding.

Major questions remain over how a refund process would work for the administration and the companies hit hardest by the tariffs
Majerus said it is possible that importers could be required to file claims themselves to secure the refunds.

Trade experts are already urging companies to keep meticulous records and prepare to file refund claims, warning that the process could be messy.

“Documenting import histories and filing necessary paperwork promptly will be key,” a recent client alert from Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck said.

If brokers are required to file for their refunds, “the workload for our customs teams would double overnight and be met with importers very eager to get those dollars back,” Mike Short, president of global forwarding at C.H. Robinson, recently told CNBC.

The New York Times’ DealBook newsletter reported that some importers are being approached about selling their rights to potential refunds to third-party firms at pennies on the dollar.

Buyers of those rights are effectively betting that the Supreme Court will overturn Trump’s tariffs, and give them a handsome return on those wagers.

Businesses and Lutnick get $1 trillion in refunds while Consumers get zero refunds for paying the tariffs. Then prices remain unchanged as businesses pocket the extra revenue. End result in an huge transfer of wealth from the poor and workers to the rich and business operators.

 

[uguduwa]

What‘s going on in the West is that there is a generation of whites raised with soooo much entitlement that the disconnect between their expectationd and reality causes so much frustration for them. unline boomers, these douchebags are not willing to do blue collaf work, there don‘t want to work hard to get an education. However, they think that the world owes a fortunate to them for being white. Just look at all the far right influencer types. Utter oxygen wasting uneducated unproductive trash. Now add to the disaster, modern jobs are becoming more and more specialized. You would have to have a crazy amount of technical knowledge to succeed nowadays. The typical code monkey jobs in tech doesn‘t cut it anymore. If these morons get their way, the West would be the new third world in no time.

You don‘t see this behaviour from productive beducated whites because they have something going on in their lives. I am curious what would happen but either way I myself have options.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

It's unbelievably cringe, especially since the LotR character Palmer (and Thiel, and the whole gang of cosplay chuds) most resembles is Saruman.



Tolkien is rolling in his grave.

He has a mind of metal and wheels.

lol no. He has a mind of stonks and memecoins.

 

[siegecrossbow]

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Businesses and Lutnick get $1 trillion in refunds while Consumers get zero refunds for paying the tariffs. Then prices remain unchanged as businesses pocket the extra revenue. End result in an huge transfer of wealth from the poor and workers to the rich and business operators.

If you do a poll on whether they should all be sent to labor/reeducation camps 99 percent of Americans would probably say yes.