Trump 2.0 official thread

generalmeng

Junior Member
Registered Member

This is for more context of what happened with the bonds
I think (speculation) the dumper is China. There are inaccuracy in this video. At the end, the person stated China as the largest foreign holder of US treasuries. actually, not true, number one is Japan at 1 trillion, China is ranked number 2 at 760b.

I am interpreting between the lines here: someone dumped US bond (probably the fed reserves and fed cabinet would know), and no one want US bond, so they need to issue higher interest rate to attract buyers. if this is actually the case, and the tariff essentially made US fed realized, no one actually want US bond, and past bond holders were forced to buy USD bonds (because there was no better alternative for their USD). If trump actually stick to the tariff, USA is actually the one with a bad hand, because everyone else can pretty much go "no, we dont want your bond, give us back the principle in cash" then US fed is essentially screwed, because the alternative is default, and sending their credit to the bottom, and interest rate through the roof, watch as USD essentially become worthless overnight (like the german marks).

also notice how the guy emphysised on the "success of bond auction" well, i think it is a fake title, since the yield is hitting record high, this contradict the "success"

here is my source "After the auction, the 10-year yield was last at 4.38% , down from 4.466% just before the 1300 EDT auction. That said, the 10-year has risen sharply this week by 37 basis points, on track for its largest weekly gain since June 2013." (
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
)

so essentially, 10 year bond yield went from 4.096 to 4.466, up 37 basis point due to the over night dumping. and when the auction came, it only recovered 8 basis point, so it is still up 29 basis point.
 
Last edited:

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
It might signal clarity in term of Trump's pain threshold, but she's kinda assuming Trump can end the pain if it's too much.
Even if Trump exempt select US companies from tariffs, who is to say China will let them.
The idea is very obvious now after how badly US got hit in the bond market (and Wall Street + overall economy outlook). Same playbook as the Tiktok "negotiation".

90 days exemption (let's be honest, there will always just be another extension) is meant to let China keep selling random bulk items to US through reroute so American consumers don't keel over. At the same time, Trump is unleashing his envoys to kiss the hand of peace in Beijing and give out as many tariff exceptions as possible when it comes to irreplaceable goods.

End result, US economy will get to stay on life support, middle/working class Americans get even more expensive costs, but not economy ending level damage. While Trump secure even more personal power at home, sidelining the traditional power factions.
Someone here said China just saved the the U.S.

So by that logic, China should have kept quiet. Eat the tariffs.
China could save Trump personally by agreeing to this little charade being offered, not save the US.

Does China want to do it though? Trump is a known quantity that harms US a lot just by being around and doing weak policies. If he is ousted due to US sustaining far too much damage, the replacement will be a Democrat, and potentially a dangerous young politician who would argue for all out war between China and NATO. But it could also simply mean US will cease any ability to compete. The alternative is to help Trump survive for now.

No idea what China would go with. Guess we'll know tomorrow.
 

Iracundus

Junior Member
Registered Member
Surely he got the hint by now that China won't talk until Trump bend the knee first.
And after he does, China still wont....

There is still that extra 21% he did just as he backed down on the other tariffs. China still has to repay him for that 21% and should do so via non-tariff means (since by that level it hardly makes a practical difference). Delay meeting him, making him sweat and panic, and maybe more export restrictions or agricultural order cancellations could work.
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
There is still that extra 21% he did just as he backed down on the other tariffs. China still has to repay him for that 21% and should do so via non-tariff means (since by that level it hardly makes a practical difference). Delay meeting him, making him sweat and panic, and maybe more export restrictions or agricultural order cancellations could work.
It's precisely because the extra 21% makes no practical difference that China should directly match it.
As for non-tariff means, China has been including them with every tariff retaliation anyway, although there's a chance there's nobody in the WH with enough technical knowledge to comprehend them.

IMO China could do the funniest thing and retaliate with +100% against the 21%, force Trump to destroy the US economy. China putting 100% tariff on US imports vs 200% vs 300% makes no difference to China, but US putting 300% tariff on China is annihilation for US industry.

As for the meeting, I don't think Xi will talk to Trump even if Trump folds completely...
 
Top