Trump 2.0 is already FUBAR.
It is like they believe in time travel and want to go back to the 1950's. Some say 1890 is the real target.
Trump 2.0 official thread
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
- Start date
Trump 2.0 is already FUBAR.
It is like they believe in time travel and want to go back to the 1950's. Some say 1890 is the real target.
IMO Yanis is quite right. You can watch this video for a deeper explanation of the rationale behind Trump's tariffs:Prof Yanis Varoufakis is someone I really like reading and listening to.
On this theory, do not believe it at all.
I am merely a simple person.
More prone to believe more standard concepts like no one controls the battlefield.
Anyways, a basic counterpoint.
China is the biggest trader in the world.
We can assume that is due in part to price and quality, which are reasonable assumptions as to why China is the biggest trading nation in the world with a $1 trillion dollar trade surplus.
So, that is the counterpoint, a basic question, why would more people trade with America? Did they beat China in price and quality?
Err ... we probably know the answer to that ...
(Because if the Americans cannot beat China products in terms of price or quality, then why should China care.)
Having some manufacturing is one thing. Being competitive is another.
Check it out.
Why should China be concerned about this plan to reinvigorate American manufacturing when they sell their robot dogs for $75,000 thousand bucks?
Only an American think-tank will believe the Chinese will be worried.
Like what Wang Yi said, they will, 奉陪到底 !
What Trump is trying to create is essentially an unequal playing field. He's leveraging America's status as the biggest consumer nation to create a trade system that excludes anyone who refuses to join it. American products don't have to be competitive with Chinese ones if the US and its vassal states either tariff Chinese products massively (e.g. EVs) or simply refuse to buy them (e.g. Huawei). There are several issues with his plan due to problems facing the US that were not present with during the previous attempts by the US to shape the global trade order (i.e. Bretton-Woods, Nixon shock, Plaza accord).
First, as the Money and Macro video pointed out, one of the biggest benefits to join the US-led order was a security guarantee. That is now far less appealing after Trump's abandonment of Ukraine and his threats to annex Canada, Greenland, and Mexico. This is an absolutely crucial pillar of this strategy, and it gives me the sense that rather than having a comprehensive national strategy, Trump is separately pursuing national security and economic strategies which really should not and cannot be separated.
Second, the deal Trump presents is essentially Plaza Accord 2.0 (PA2) to the rest of the world. In order to preserve access to the US consumer market, trading partners will be asked to raise their own currency valuations thus making their exports less competitive and/or move manufacturing to the US. The Plaza Accord 1.0 (PA1) already caused significant harm to many other nations' industries, so countries involved in PA1 have mostly been sucked dry already, while those who were not involved who have significant industries (the behemoth here is of course China) are unlikely to be enticed by the security guarantees, especially given how much it's been weakened by Trump's own doing. It's hard to say if the PA1 really worked anyway. Japan's failures IMO has more to do with their inability to catch onto emerging industries than anything else, as they maintained their dominant positions in the industries they were already dominant in and their trade deficit with the US did not significantly change.
Third, the US is no longer the sole economic superpower in the world. China's response thus far suggests that it's digging in for a fight. In my assessment, this is the true beginning of Cold War 2. Before they were skirmishes, limited to gradually broadening sectors, this is now full-spectrum non-kinetic warfare. To this end, I believe that China will do what Yanis suggests, which is to rebalance the economy to increase consumption. Production can no longer rely on external demand, and seismic changes will be needed. Popping the property bubble in recent years IMO is in preparation for such a move. Stimulus measures cannot be directed toward unproductive asset bubbles like what happened in Japan, it will have to be directed at high tech products that boost a nation's strength.
This is just the beginning, let's see what moves each side will make in the years that follow. The best grand strategy IMO will always be the same, focusing on strengthening oneself rather than damaging the opponent. The side that invests the most into its own system and citizens with the best efficiency will win out in the end.
Trade Czar has spoken.
No tariff relief until the trade is balanced.
Still thinking they may cave at some point though...
Let's hope the echo chamber walls hold on.
Stay strong Comrade Navarro, tariffs to the bitter end, don't compromise with the cheaters!
1. That is only point to Prof Yanis Varoufakis' theory about this supposed US plan, is that Trump 2.0 intends to bully people.
2. Why I do not believe in it at all this plan, is that it is too easily exposed.
3. In fact, it already has been exposed as kind of unworkable plan. Once China retaliated immediately, then put on those export restrictions on the rare earths, there can be no grand negotiations or bargaining. The Chinese slammed the door shut.
That is what I mean by no one controls the battlefield.
Deng gave Grobachev three conditions for them to talk, reduced troops along the border, remove troops from Mongolia, get Vietnam to withdraw from Cambodia, forget now, something like that, and Deng was willing to met face to face with Grobachev any place anywhere.
That is where US China relations are now.
Now we get to the funny part.
So Vietnam yesterday offers a deal to reduce tariffs to zero, but was rejected by Team Trump.
The reason being is too obvious.
After the Trump 1.0 tariffs, the supply chains did not return to America, instead the supply chain in Asia branched out from China, making China an even bigger trading nation.
These Trump 2.0 tariffs does not change this. Haha! That is so funny. What the hell are they doing?
Suppose the Americans and Europeans come to a tariff agreement. But so what? China and Europe sell different types of products to America, to cause their latter's trade deficit.
Right? The Europeans are not making iPhones or consumer electronics. The Europeans sell to America high end machinery, and use to buy gas from Russia, which now the Americans insist they buy it from them. Because some pipeline blew up on its own. Hehe.
Anyways, in regards to China or the China centric supply chain, there cannot be any negotiations at the moment, the case of Vietnam clearly demonstrates this. The Americans will have to continue to import the stuff they want to buy from Asian countries and pay the tariff. In other words, the Americans will have to endure more inflation and slower growth from these Trump 2.0 tariffs.
I think it is easier to say that President Trump is kind of stupid, probably never passed, paid someone to write his exams in school, that is why it is FUBAR right now.
That supposed plan hinges on negotiations, from a position of strength. Inflation, slower growth! That plan is FUBAR.
Why is that plan FUBAR?
What can the Americans offer the Chinese, for the rare earth restrictions to be lifted? Inputs they need to build weapons?
We know the answer. The Americans have nothing they can offer the Chinese to make those rare earth restrictions to go away.
Well, the idea is clear.
Message to European Eunuchs: -vassals, serfs, and lackeys, our Domination isn't free; you have to pay for our 'protection' and access to our beuuutiful market
The second prize in the monstrous Ukrainian Gambit (2008-, 2014-): the jackpot of sacrificing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians was to overthrow Russia, and the second prize was to break relations between Europe and Russia and scare the Europeans
What we already knew:
Washington, DC, burns houses at night and sells fire insurance during the day.
Message to European Eunuchs: -vassals, serfs, and lackeys, our Domination isn't free; you have to pay for our 'protection' and access to our beuuutiful market
The second prize in the monstrous Ukrainian Gambit (2008-, 2014-): the jackpot of sacrificing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians was to overthrow Russia, and the second prize was to break relations between Europe and Russia and scare the Europeans
What we already knew:
Washington, DC, burns houses at night and sells fire insurance during the day.
I truly believe Trump 2.0 is FUBAR now.
Remember the pandemic, and how they handled it?
They did not know what they were doing.
That seems like the same case here.
The Americans will have a mid-election, next year.
The stock market better stabilize, and inflation must be held in check.
The market will probably come back, but inflation, Sleepy Joe never solved it, they lying about it all the time. If Trump 2.0 does the same, he is finished.
How are they going to prevent inflation when they increased the price via their tariff which is a tax?
The only thing I can think of, is the wild idea is to let the inflation grow, but cut income tax to zero, leaving people with more disposable income because they do not pay income taxes anymore.
The only risk there, could be hyperinflation. LOL!
But you know what, Trump is the kind of guy who would risk hyperinflation!
What a guy!
Trump! Forever!
Remember the pandemic, and how they handled it?
They did not know what they were doing.
That seems like the same case here.
The Americans will have a mid-election, next year.
The stock market better stabilize, and inflation must be held in check.
The market will probably come back, but inflation, Sleepy Joe never solved it, they lying about it all the time. If Trump 2.0 does the same, he is finished.
How are they going to prevent inflation when they increased the price via their tariff which is a tax?
The only thing I can think of, is the wild idea is to let the inflation grow, but cut income tax to zero, leaving people with more disposable income because they do not pay income taxes anymore.
The only risk there, could be hyperinflation. LOL!
But you know what, Trump is the kind of guy who would risk hyperinflation!
What a guy!
Trump! Forever!
That's exactly right -the golden era of the billionaire robber barons who could own anything,anyone and any official of any level of gov't they wanted -I've heard Trump has never actually read anything like a book so his level of ignorance is simply astonishing"does the UK have nuclear bombs","Chinese need to open up a Honda factory in Michigan or else","aren't Chinese addicted to opium nationwide","what's NATO??" etc-FUBAR globally-please an ischemic or hemorrhagic event to spare this long suffering world-Vance and Rubio too!!Trump 2.0 is already FUBAR.
It is like they believe in time travel and want to go back to the 1950's. Some say 1890 is the real target.
Even gang-bangers now? Well cue the saying "first they came for..."
"the golden era"
---
Yes, exactly 1846-1930
the 'good old days'
- At the end of my days, I look back and think I could give Al Capone some advice. As a gangster, he operated in three districts of a city, and I, as a general in the United States Marine Corps, operated on three continents.
(I'm quoting from memory)
It's exactly the spirit of that era
but, of course, without the lucid reflection of this general.
---
Yes, exactly 1846-1930
the 'good old days'
- At the end of my days, I look back and think I could give Al Capone some advice. As a gangster, he operated in three districts of a city, and I, as a general in the United States Marine Corps, operated on three continents.
(I'm quoting from memory)
It's exactly the spirit of that era
but, of course, without the lucid reflection of this general.