Trump 2.0 official thread

[siegecrossbow]

It's hard to say, at some level a deal could be spun by local Indian media, with the help of censorship, as a win. Trump has thus far proven fairly capable of forcing other nations to sign humiliating deals. However, so far that has mostly been with states that are heavily dependent on US. This is the first test of how that will go with a nation that isn't so it could go either way.

India is pretty dependent on the U.S. too. Really boils down to how smart Trump advisors are — all they need to do is to tax US remittance to India 50 percent.

 

[ENTED64]

India is pretty dependent on the U.S. too. Really boils down to how smart Trump advisors are — all they need to do is to tax US remittance to India 50 percent.

Well it's on a sliding spectrum, thus far Trump has mostly done deals with nations that are further toward the US dependent part of the spectrum like EU. Sure India isn't as independent from US as China or Russia who are on the other end of the spectrum, but I would consider it more in the middle. That is, it is more independent than the ones Trump has successfully coerced thus far so it represents a more difficult test.

 

[AlexYe]

Nah. He’d tax companies for outsourcing IT if he wanted to do that.

India's economy lives via the IT bringing in $300-400 bn usd (actual cash too) into the country, if that happens it be like getting the sanctions that russia got.
So far trump hasnt really used digital /services type of restrictions/cards on any of the countries, use other stuff.
India is reliant on US defense sector too, tejas program will die without those ge engines.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

India will never open up her domestic agricultural market to the US or anyone for that matter, its exactly because of this issue that india still hasn't signed a free trade agreement with the EU despite almost a decade of negotiations. It will be political suicide for any indian leader to do so(just look at the little reforms Modi tried to implement in farming/agricultural industry and how it led to massive protests that even shutdown the capital city new Delhi and Modi had to back down for the 1st time). So, if trump insists on that instead of using other conditions, then those tarriffs will remain in place. You should do some research why agric industry is a no go for any indian leader.
Dont forget that approximately 45% of India's workforce is engaged in agriculture and allied activities.

This inability to carry out basic land reforms due to political constraints is the reason why the Indian economy will never develop. No nation in history has managed to successfully industrialize without first instituting large scale land reform.

 

[GodRektsNoobs]

Nah India doesnt have an option, they are too reliant/linked with US, they will/have to bend the knee and will get their tariffs reduced.
I dont see them going rogue tbh they dont have the leverage that others have,

How? I think India only does $88 billion worth of trade with the US. Other than that nothing promised by Biden to India actually materialized. All the supposed "close alliance" between India and US is basically just hot air. Thus, even if a full trade war breaks out between the two countries it would not amount to much.

Regarding the GE engines for Tejas, the F404 is already obsolete and discontinued. In fact, GE had to restart their assemble line just to deliver F404 to India. The delivery rate is also absymal and India has already reached out to Safran for re-engining the Tejas to their M88-4 (same as the Rafale). Honestly, another 5-10 year delay for a plane that will probably never achieve full combat capability is nothing.

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[4Tran]

How? I think India only does $88 billion worth of trade with the US. Other than that nothing promised by Biden to India actually materialized. All the supposed "close alliance" between India and US is basically just hot air. Thus, even if a full trade war breaks out between the two countries it would not amount to much.

The trade numbers don't cover remittances and probably not services like IT work. India is more vulnerable than the numbers indicate. For example, a crackdown in H1B visas could be a big hit on Modi. India itself might do okay in a full blown trade war, but the BJP might get wrecked.

 

[SteelBird]

How? I think India only does $88 billion worth of trade with the US. Other than that nothing promised by Biden to India actually materialized. All the supposed "close alliance" between India and US is basically just hot air. Thus, even if a full trade war breaks out between the two countries it would not amount to much.

Regarding the GE engines for Tejas, the F404 is already obsolete and discontinued. In fact, GE had to restart their assemble line just to deliver F404 to India. The delivery rate is also absymal and India has already reached out to Safran for re-engining the Tejas to their M88-4 (same as the Rafale). Honestly, another 5-10 year delay for a plane that will probably never achieve full combat capability is nothing.

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You should worry more about China. Trump is unpredictable, whatever agreement you made with him may become a piece of wastepaper in a tick. India is not the only country that buys oil from Russia. After slashing India with 50% tariff for buying Russian oil, Trump threatens to do the same to China because China also buys large amount of oil from Russia.

 

[4Tran]

You should worry more about China. Trump is unpredictable, whatever agreement you made with him may become a piece of wastepaper in a tick. India is not the only country that buys oil from Russia. After slashing India with 50% tariff for buying Russian oil, Trump threatens to do the same to China because China also buys large amount of oil from Russia.

Unlike India, China has a ton of cards to play against the US. The play with rare earths was just card #1, and it already threatens to cripple multiple American industries. While the US might actually impose a stringent tariff on China, this is unlikely to last long, and even if it did, the retaliation from China is probably going to hurt a lot more.

 

[GulfLander]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1953193672172028164

...

WASHINGTON - U.S. President Donald Trump's country-specific tariffs took effect on Thursday, with a White House official saying that Japanese imports will not be given special treatment as Tokyo had believed under a recent bilateral trade deal.

In clear contrast to the Japanese government's explanation of the terms of the trade deal, the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the Trump administration's 15 percent tariff rate for Japan will stack on top of pre-existing duty rates applied to imports from the key U.S. ally, unlike in the case of the European Union.

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....

Japan pressed the U.S. to swiftly implement an agreed cut to auto tariffs and sought clarification on levies for other goods, as conflicting interpretations of the bilateral trade deal further pressured Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's shaky administration.
In a meeting with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick in Washington on Wednesday, top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa urged the U.S. to implement at an early date an agreed cut to U.S. tariffson Japanese auto and auto parts, Japan's government said.

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[SteelBird]

Unlike India, China has a ton of cards to play against the US. The play with rare earths was just card #1, and it already threatens to cripple multiple American industries. While the US might actually impose a stringent tariff on China, this is unlikely to last long, and even if it did, the retaliation from China is probably going to hurt a lot more.

What I want to emphasize here is Trump is unpredictable and fickle. What decision he makes today, he may change it tomorrow. I really don't know what words to use to describe him.