Trump 2.0 official thread

[Michael90]

Calm down, everyone. Although I also want to see India suffer a setback, it is clear that Trump is once again employing a tactic of extreme pressure. I think we will soon see India kneel at the feet of the United States, open up its domestic agricultural market, and declare that it will meet all of Trump's demands in exchange for low tariffs.

India will never open up her domestic agricultural market to the US or anyone for that matter, its exactly because of this issue that india still hasn't signed a free trade agreement with the EU despite almost a decade of negotiations. It will be political suicide for any indian leader to do so(just look at the little reforms Modi tried to implement in farming/agricultural industry and how it led to massive protests that even shutdown the capital city new Delhi and Modi had to back down for the 1st time). So, if trump insists on that instead of using other conditions, then those tarriffs will remain in place. You should do some research why agric industry is a no go for any indian leader.
Dont forget that approximately 45% of India's workforce is engaged in agriculture and allied activities.

 

[ENTED64]

Yeah given internal Indian politics it seems opening up Indian agricultural sector is a red line that even Modi will refuse to cross. Maybe Modi can give some ground on the margins but if Trump insists on fully opening up Indian agricultural sector then there will probably just be a deadlock and India will simply absorb higher tariffs. If Trump backs down on opening up Indian agricultural sector then it's plausible that Modi will bend the knee on Russian oil. It mostly just comes down to how much Trump sees as the minimum requirement.

 

[AlexYe]

Yeah given internal Indian politics it seems opening up Indian agricultural sector is a red line that even Modi will refuse to cross. Maybe Modi can give some ground on the margins but if Trump insists on fully opening up Indian agricultural sector then there will probably just be a deadlock and India will simply absorb higher tariffs. If Trump backs down on opening up Indian agricultural sector then it's plausible that Modi will bend the knee on Russian oil. It mostly just comes down to how much Trump sees as the minimum requirement.

They could work something like:
"We wont ask you to do open agri market but in return you need to stop nearly all Russian oil"
hence Indian national security advisor visit

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1953111866428833921

 

[ENTED64]

They could work something like:
"We wont ask you to do open agri market but in return you need to stop nearly all Russian oil"
hence Indian national security advisor visit

Yeah that's plausible. It just comes down to what Trump really wants and what deal Trump will actually take. If he 100% insists on opening up India's agricultural sector I think we'll just get a deadlock. If Trump gives that up (like he gave up on preventing EU regulations) then it's plausible India would bend the knee, promise various investments (that probably won't materialize), and stop buying Russian oil.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Yeah given internal Indian politics it seems opening up Indian agricultural sector is a red line that even Modi will refuse to cross. Maybe Modi can give some ground on the margins but if Trump insists on fully opening up Indian agricultural sector then there will probably just be a deadlock and India will simply absorb higher tariffs. If Trump backs down on opening up Indian agricultural sector then it's plausible that Modi will bend the knee on Russian oil. It mostly just comes down to how much Trump sees as the minimum requirement.

How about they don't bend the knee at all and just accepts the tariffs? Does that possibility come up in your mind?

India is simply incapable of bending the knee after getting publicly humiliated like this. It pretty much destroys the entire superpower india narrative of bop and modi.

India doesn't export much to US anyway. They can swallow the tariffs. Compared to their gdp, their export is tiny fraction.

 

[AlexYe]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

100% semiconductor Tariffs

How about they don't bend the knee at all and just accepts the tariffs? Does that possibility come up in your mind?

I mean that is a possibility but it will be devastating for India's situation right now,

India doesn't export much to US anyway. They can swallow the tariffs. Compared to their gdp, their export is tiny fraction.

With 50% tariffs and China at 30%, all the companies that were slowly moving stuff from China to India wont have any reason to do that now, lots of procurements will just stop happening, this will also mean that many US companies that pour FDI's into india will stop too since they wont see any benefit of doing that,
Tariffs impact far more than just the physical goods being exported

 

[valysre]

Perhaps Trump really means to stop American companies from outsourcing everything to India?

 

[siegecrossbow]

Perhaps Trump really means to stop American companies from outsourcing everything to India?

Nah. He’d tax companies for outsourcing IT if he wanted to do that.

 

[ENTED64]

How about they don't bend the knee at all and just accepts the tariffs? Does that possibility come up in your mind?

India is simply incapable of bending the knee after getting publicly humiliated like this. It pretty much destroys the entire superpower india narrative of bop and modi.

India doesn't export much to US anyway. They can swallow the tariffs. Compared to their gdp, their export is tiny fraction.

It's hard to say, at some level a deal could be spun by local Indian media, with the help of censorship, as a win. Trump has thus far proven fairly capable of forcing other nations to sign humiliating deals. However, so far that has mostly been with states that are heavily dependent on US. This is the first test of how that will go with a nation that isn't so it could go either way.

 

[daifo]

Nah. He’d tax companies for outsourcing IT if he wanted to do that.

We might see it if Trump is in a bad mood and Modi doesn't bend the knee Poor job reports could also be a factor.