Trade War with China

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antiterror13

Brigadier
I agree that Huawei has made a lot of effort in this area. But my post was more about the radio part and electro-optical part that consumers usually oversee. Take Huawei's Kirin SOC for example, there is only one model so far that incorporates radio baseband processing unit. All other models including the latest one has only CPU and GPU. Huawei use separate baseband chips for their phones, I don't know if it is by Huawei or not. And I hope there are substitute in this area.

ZTE's problem is not just Qualcomm's SoC for their phone, that is peanut. ZTE is a system vendor, they make routers, transport backbone networks and base stations. All these stuff need critical components. ZTE is hit hard by the fact that it relies on an US company. ZTE will survive if their mobile phone is dead, but it can not survive if it's fiber optical transport circuit is cut off of supply.

yeapp, ZTE might not survive, unless ZTE and Huawei would cooperate (unlikely?) ... perhaps ZTE is just a victim and without ZTE ... would hurt China but the impact to the Chinese is minuscule (if any). But from now on ... Chinese govt and Chinese business would have learned the hard lesson ... to not rely to any US supply chain. From now on you would see that the local Chinese hi tech industries would be booming and will be fully supported by central govt. .. perhaps with a cooperation with EU and Israel companies .. and somewhat with Japan, SK and Taiwan as well

sometime somebody has to be a victim (in this case might be ZTE) for much further advancement and booming nationalism within China

And the worst thing for the US industries ... this ZTE case also send a clear message to all business all over the world to NOT rely on US supply chain

remind me Satellites, AWACS and Intel chips cases .. and many others
 
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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
yeapp, ZTE might not survive, unless ZTE and Huawei would cooperate (unlikely?) ... perhaps ZTE is just a victim and without ZTE ... would hurt China but the impact to the Chinese is minuscule (if any). But from now on ... Chinese govt and Chinese business would have learned the hard lesson ... to not rely to any US supply chain. From now on you would see that the local Chinese hi tech industries would be booming and will be fully supported by central govt. .. perhaps with a cooperation with EU and Israel companies .. and somewhat with Japan, SK and Taiwan as well

sometime somebody has to be a victim (in this case might be ZTE) for much further advancement and booming nationalism within China

And the worst thing for the US industries ... this ZTE case also send a clear message to all business all over the world to NOT rely on US supply chain

remind me Satellites, AWACS and Intel chips cases .. and many others
I am far from saying or believe in that. All what I was trying to say is that ZTE will have a very bumpy road ahead.

On the contrary, ZTE will survive, it will just suffer extra cost and delays due to the disturbance of its supply chain. Being blocked from launching any satellite with whatever American components did not kill China's commercial space service, today China is doing turnkey business for Africa, Asia and South America. ZTE will be just fine.

Yes, the whole trade war thing is a war of "killing 1000 enemies by loosing 800 soldiers". Those American companies have to find other suppliers in place of ZTE. I think they will be dead before ZTE is severely wounded. Remember, ZTE is SOE, for it to die is like Being seeing a Chinese province to collapse without doing anything. Those American companies may not have the full backing from Washington's budget.
 
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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Just realized that the last pages are more related to the ongoing trade war. I suggest we move this discussion over to the appropriate thread.:)
 
The Soy Bean is native to East Asia and grew wild in Russia, China and Korea so there is absolutely no reason why it wouldn't grow in NE China! More of a question why it's NOT grown there en masse already!

Russia has plenty of land just across Heilongjiang or Inner Mongolia. China can provide assistance if needed and it will be a win-win solution. Russia can develop their agriculture and China gets an alternative and perhaps more secure source. Remember the US banned agricultural product to USSR back in the 70's. Trump is bombastic enough to try this also if it can cause pain for China.

Just a matter of will from the Russian side. Should do this regardless of trade war or not.
 
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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
I am far from saying or believe in that. All what I was trying to say is that ZTE will have a very bumpy road ahead.

On the contrary, ZTE will survive, it will just suffer extra cost and delays due to the disturbance of its supply chain. Being blocked from launching any satellite with whatever American components did not kill China's commercial space service, today China is doing turnkey business for Africa, Asia and South America. ZTE will be just fine.

Yes, the whole trade war thing is a war of "killing 1000 enemies by loosing 800 soldiers". Those American companies have to find other suppliers in place of ZTE. I think they will be dead before ZTE is severely wounded. Remember, ZTE is SOE, for it to die is like Being seeing a Chinese province to collapse without doing anything. Those American companies may not have the full backing from Washington's budget.


I do think this has been anticipated, and for a while now, they should already have a Plan B already being worked even before.

Huawei especially, always works with Plan B and Plan C in mind as part of their policy.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
Well looking into the US demand it doesn't leave much room for negotiation doesn't it. Those neo con probably think this is Plaza II agreement or worse Harris treaty. And China is a push over like Japan.
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Here is the list
of demand via Vincent, I agree with Vincent it is ironic May the 4th is eternally etched in the common consciousness of Chinese people as the day of humiliation and infamy

Who picked the date for the trade talk? May 4th! Anyone with a little knowledge of history would know the May 4th movement is the watershed event for the downfall of the Qing government

Trump and Navaro is smoking something REALLY good!

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By Enda Curran and Keith Zhai
May 4, 2018, 4:47 AM EDT Updated on May 4, 2018, 7:28 AM EDT

The U.S. and China issued long lists of demands at talks in Beijing this week to resolve the simmering trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies.

In a document entitled “Balancing the Trade Relationship,” seen by Bloomberg News, the U.S. divided its demands into eight sections, ranging from trade-deficit reduction to tariff barriers to implementation. Here’s a synopsis of the U.S. requests, which were presented to China at the outset of the talks:

Trade Deficit Reduction

  • The U.S. wants China to cut the two nations’ trade deficit by at least $200 billion by the end of 2020 from 2018 levels.
  • Chinese purchases of U.S. goods will represent at least 75 percent of a commitment to a $100 billion increase in purchases of U.S. exports for the 12 months beginning June 1, 2018, and at least 50 percent of China’s commitment to an additional $100 billion increase in purchases of U.S. exports in the 12 months beginning June 1, 2019.

Protection of American Technology and Intellectual Property
  • China to immediately cease providing subsidies and government support that fuels excess capacity in industries targeted by the Made in China 2025 plan.
  • Specific policies and practices linked to technology transfer are eliminated.
  • A cessation of government-sponsored cyber intrusion and cyber theft.
  • Strengthened intellectual property rights protection and enforcement.
  • By Jan. 1, 2019, China will eliminate provisions of the Regulations on the Administration of the Import and Export of Technologies and the Regulations on the Implementation of the Law on Chinese-Foreign Equity Joint Ventures identified in the U.S.
  • By July 1, 2018, China will withdraw its request for WTO consultations in United States – Tariff Measures on Certain Goods from China and take no further action on the matter
  • The document also calls on China to take no retaliatory action in response to actions taken or to be taken by the U.S.

Restrictions on Investment in Sensitive Technology
  • A demand that China does not “oppose, challenge, or otherwise retaliate against the United States’ imposition of restrictions on investments from China in sensitive U.S. technology sectors or sectors critical to U.S. national security.”

U.S. Investment in China
  • A demand that China does not distort trade through investment restrictions and any restrictions are narrow and transparent
  • U.S. investors in China to receive “fair, effective and non-discriminatory market access and treatment, including removal of the application of foreign investment restrictions and foreign ownership/shareholding requirements.”
  • China to issue an improved nationwide negative list for foreign investment by July 1, 2018. Within 90 days the U.S. will identify existing investment restrictions that deny U.S. investors market access. China is then to remove all identified investment restrictions on a timetable to be decided by both nations.

Tariff and non-tariff barriers
  • By July 1, 2020, China will reduce tariffs on all products in non-critical sectors to levels that are no higher than the levels of the U.S.’ corresponding tariffs
  • China to remove specified non-tariff barriers and recognizes that the U.S. may impose import restrictions and tariffs on products in critical sectors, including sectors identified in the Made in China 2025 industrial plan.

U.S. Services and Services Suppliers
  • A demand for China to improve market access in specified ways

U.S. Agricultural Products
  • A demand for China to improve market access in specified ways

Implementation
  • Both countries to meet quarterly to review targets and reforms
  • If the U.S. declares China is not complying with the framework, the U.S. can impose tariffs or other restrictions on Chinese products or restrict supply of services
  • A demand that China does not “oppose, challenge or take any form of action against the United States’ imposition of additional tariffs or restrictions.”
  • China to withdraw its WTO complaints regarding designations of China as a non-market economy and will refrain from future challenges
  • Within 15 days of receiving written notice of a prohibited product that may have been transshipped through one or more countries, China will provide full details of every shipment. Failure to do so will trigger tariffs.
  • If China fails to uphold commitments the U.S. will impose tariffs on imports from China and will confiscate counterfeit and pirated goods or levy tariffs to compensate for lost technologies and intellectual property.
  • A demand that China does not take any retaliatory action in response.

The following is a synopsis of China’s demands:
  • In an official document seen by Bloomberg News, China stated that measures to open up its economy will not be applicable to U.S. investors if the U.S. doesn’t meet China’s request on equal treatment of Chinese investment. Other requests of the U.S. included:
    • Lift bans on exports of integrated circuits to China.
    • Stop imposing 25 percent extra tariffs against Chinese products.
    • Open government procurement to Chinese technology products and services.
    • Give equal treatment to Chinese companies in national security review.
    • Adjust the export ban on ZTE. Corp.
    • Drop surrogate-country approach in anti-dumping, anti-remedy cases.
    • Not to initiate any Section 301 investigation against China in the future.
    • Open its e-payment market to Chinese companies.
    • Approve China International Capital Corp.’s application for a financial license.
    • Open the e-payment market to Chinese companies
The may 4th movement was in 1919 due to treaty of Versailles ending ww1. 8 years after the collapse of qing.
 
from
Statement on the United States Trade Delegation’s Visit to Beijing
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:
group-cropped-1089x684.jpg
 
now I read
China, U.S. reach agreements on some economic and trade issues
Xinhua| 2018-05-04 17:28:24
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China and the United States reached agreements on some issues in their economic and trade consultations in Beijing from Thursday to Friday, and agreed to set up a work mechanism to keep close communication.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, held candid, efficient and constructive talks with the U.S. delegation led by U.S. president's special envoy and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, on economic and trade issues of common concern.

The two sides agreed that a sound and stable China-U.S. trade relationship is crucial for both, and they are committed to resolving relevant economic and trade issues through dialogue and consultation.

The two sides had thorough exchange of views on issues including increasing U.S. exports to China, bilateral service trade, two-way investment, protection of intellectual property rights, as well as resolving tariff and non-tariff issues, reaching consensus in some areas.

Both sides recognized that given that considerable differences still exist on some issues, continued hard work is required for more progress.

They also agreed to stay in close communication on relevant issues and establish a corresponding work mechanism.
 
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