Trade War with China

manqiangrexue said:

Josh, I think you need to read and follow some other threads which have already discussed the rare earth situation and Huawei's plans to survive in depth. You're basically bringing up those already discussed topics for discussion again here.

Regarding rare earths: https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/can-the-us-derail-2025.t8530/page-2

It's not a coordination problem; China's government is fast-acting for sure. They hold a meeting in ZhongnNanHai with CCP officials, and it's done. It's that this is a little too big a weapon to use. It's kinda like a nuke; to ban rare earths would cause incredible global disruption and turn everyone against China just as China got the moral high-ground over the US over the Huawei incident. This might still be resorted to if China were really crunched by the trade war/tech ban, to crunch the US similarly but when China is ready and it's got a fine plan ahead, it doesn't have to resort to this. No country would ever use a nuclear weapon against someone who they can defeat by conventional forces and that's why China's leaving the rare earth ban at home.

Also, since China's talking about it, it looks a little more like a head-fake rather than a real move as a real move should be kept silent until the last moment of announcement to inflict as much damage as possible. Here, it can cause some fear and panic in the US; they might start pitching their resources hurriedly into rare earth production, which won't really materialize for about 2 years, then they realize they've wasted their investment for nothing as China keeps underselling them and they have to close shop again or continue to government-subsidize operations that aren't really needed.

It's certainly not about war. China's not Afghanistan; you can't beat down nuclear China for its rare earths like you can beat down Afghanistan to rob its oil. Plus, after a Chinese ban, the US wouldn't be 100% cut off; they would just experience ugly shortages and have to invest huge amounts of money to go around looking for little bits of product. It would badly hamper them but it wouldn't grind the US industries to an absolute halt. The war option like how the US oil embargo pushed Japan to attack is not a usable tactic in a world of MAD.

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styx said:

i think that a US war on iran will be the tomb of american power. Too hard nut to crack for us

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localizer said:

You can see the hawks are trying to pick a war with Iran to reassert dominance and remind the world who's the boss.

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Josh Luo said:

I feel the Trump Administration's strategy is pretty much what a status quo power would always do. Make everyone insecure and accept your rule by forcing them to choose your side (in order to isolate the rising power) when you still possess an edge in material power to do so. Of course, no one cares about morality and rules of engagement under such a scenario. The Art of War by Sun Tzu and Mearsheimerian rules are what matter now. Games on!

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manqiangrexue said:

Yes, that is correct, but with a small yet important addition: this is how superpowers behave when they are scared for their futures and watching their dominance unravel. A confident and strong superpower speaks gently but resolutely; the world follows its leadership by will and its lead is reinforced by policies of generous reward that the superpower is happy to give out. When this stops being the case, when the world becomes hard to convince and the carrot seems less and less effective, the unsettled superpower starts to speak louder and angrier, substituting "I believe that the correct choice is obvious and I wish everyone the best however they choose," with, "You must choose me; I insist! I am your friend and they are your enemy!" It starts to replace rewards with threats, going from, "Together, we can form a cohesive network of data-sharing for the global good," to "If you don't fall in line, we will cut you out of the circle!" This is where we are right now. As we near the death bell on a superpower's reign, the rhetoric will only grow increasingly unpleasant, desperate, and full of erratic foulness.

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Josh Luo said:

Agree with you, but there is still a high chance that the U.S. could reverse its so-called "relative decline," especially if the latter were successful in "murdering" China and its state-led economic institutions.

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Josh Luo said:

Agree with you, but there is still a high chance that the U.S. could reverse its so-called "relative decline," especially if the latter were successful in "murdering" China and its state-led economic institutions.

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