Trade War with China

MrCrazyBoyRavi said:

Regarding huwawei OS and appstore. Lets say even if huawei manage to create OS and appstore , Can’t US simply block the payment system for huawei appstore for international users? Since all international transcation has to go through US banks and institutions.

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No, international transactions don't have to use the USD or go through US networks.

Half of all Swift transactions aren't in USD.

And there are international networks run by Unionpay, Alipay and WeChat

Biscuits said:

China has widened the trade deficit gap, and data indicates most damage from the trade war has been tanked by US consumers followed by US producers. America has momentum on it’s side, but not much else. The attack on Huawei has so far been an embarrassing failure, and Trump has also alienated the Silicon Valley lobby.

While China has been slow to respond (probably due to legal quagmire), it is now moving on the way towards cutting off America’s critical imports, a move far more devastating than any disruption against Chinese factories in America Trump can perform, as sectors across the board (such as pharma, electronics and EV) are reliant, rather than lone companies.

The current trade war is only slightly in China’s favor, but this is with America applying maximum pressure and China only responding with minimum pressure. Once the relevant legal framework is laid down, it is unlikely that America can resist maximum pressure.

The greatest danger is that an overreaction in the trade war could lead into America having no choices but the military option. US military is still far larger, and as WW2 has shown “wonder weapons” and technology is not necessary enough to hold back against a much larger force. Unlike Germany through, China has a vibrant industry backing it up. Neither does it lack manpower, so at least in theory, it would not suffer the same sort of shortages.

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Yes, but do you happen to know what is taking so long for Beijing to come up with a rare earth ban? Is that a realistic option to hit back? Would such a move provoke "America having no choices but the military option?"

siegecrossbow said:

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If true, this Winglong II drone operated by the UAE just scored the most expensive kill, ever, by a drone in Libya.

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please look at disgusting

#5191 LesAdieux, Today at 10:37 AM

#5195 CMP, Today at 12:33 PM

they're like hornets against one debater

Josh Luo said:

Yes, but do you happen to know what is taking so long for Beijing to come up with a rare earth ban? Is that a realistic option to hit back? Would such a move provoke "America having no choices but the military option?"

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Hard to coordinate the entire government to act on something. Usually, central, regional and local governments just do their own thing and picks the path of least resistance when it comes to dealing with eachother. Power goes from the bottom to the top, so even if the top wants to do something, it’s worthless if they can’t convince everyone at the bottom. It takes time to convince all of them.

Because people’s livelihoods haven’t been noticeably impacted, it’s even harder to get local government to care about the conflict.

However, the central government has (seemingly) managed to rally everyone to at least know about the American threat and be willing to work on a larger scale to halt it, and that’s a big step compared to yesteryear.

Trump’s government is able to react as quickly as Trump speaks through executive orders. Even in the worst case, something might take congress approval. But the drawback is that they don’t necessary have much support behind their decisions, since they haven’t taken time to consult everyone.

Biscuits said:

Hard to coordinate the entire government to act on something. Usually, central, regional and local governments just do their own thing and picks the path of least resistance when it comes to dealing with eachother. Power goes from the bottom to the top, so even if the top wants to do something, it’s worthless if they can’t convince everyone at the bottom. It takes time to convince all of them.

Because people’s livelihoods haven’t been noticeably impacted, it’s even harder to get local government to care about the conflict.

However, the central government has (seemingly) managed to rally everyone to at least know about the American threat and be willing to work on a larger scale to halt it, and that’s a big step compared to yesteryear.

Trump’s government is able to react as quickly as Trump speaks through executive orders. Even in the worst case, something might take congress approval. But the drawback is that they don’t necessary have much support behind their decisions, since they haven’t taken time to consult everyone.

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The is high, and the emperor is far away. Always a problem when it comes to coordination between government branches in China.

Josh Luo said:

Yes, but do you happen to know what is taking so long for Beijing to come up with a rare earth ban? Is that a realistic option to hit back? Would such a move provoke "America having no choices but the military option?"

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Josh, I think you need to read and follow some other threads which have already discussed the rare earth situation and Huawei's plans to survive in depth. You're basically bringing up those already discussed topics for discussion again here.

Regarding rare earths: https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/can-the-us-derail-2025.t8530/page-2

It's not a coordination problem; China's government is fast-acting for sure. They hold a meeting in ZhongnNanHai with CCP officials, and it's done. It's that this is a little too big a weapon to use. It's kinda like a nuke; to ban rare earths would cause incredible global disruption and turn everyone against China just as China got the moral high-ground over the US over the Huawei incident. This might still be resorted to if China were really crunched by the trade war/tech ban, to crunch the US similarly but when China is ready and it's got a fine plan ahead, it doesn't have to resort to this. No country would ever use a nuclear weapon against someone who they can defeat by conventional forces and that's why China's leaving the rare earth ban at home.

Also, since China's talking about it, it looks a little more like a head-fake rather than a real move as a real move should be kept silent until the last moment of announcement to inflict as much damage as possible. Here, it can cause some fear and panic in the US; they might start pitching their resources hurriedly into rare earth production, which won't really materialize for about 2 years, then they realize they've wasted their investment for nothing as China keeps underselling them and they have to close shop again or continue to government-subsidize operations that aren't really needed.

It's certainly not about war. China's not Afghanistan; you can't beat down nuclear China for its rare earths like you can beat down Afghanistan to rob its oil. Plus, after a Chinese ban, the US wouldn't be 100% cut off; they would just experience ugly shortages and have to invest huge amounts of money to go around looking for little bits of product. It would badly hamper them but it wouldn't grind the US industries to an absolute halt. The war option like how the US oil embargo pushed Japan to attack is not a usable tactic in a world of MAD.

now I read
Commentary: China's trade growth strong enough to resist external pressure
Xinhua| 2019-06-12 16:26:51

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Though faced with trade barriers set up by the United States, China's foreign trade remained steady, showing its ability to handle external headwinds.

As China continues upgrading its industries, its foreign trade structure saw prominent adjustments. China's processing trade declined by 2.4 percent year on year in the first five months, with general trade registering rapid growth and expanding its proportion of the total trade volume.

An improved industrial structure will strengthen China's competitiveness in the global market, boosting the country's confidence to cope with external uncertainties.

On the other hand, though China's trade with the United States declined significantly during the period, it has seen continuous trade growth with other major markets including the EU, ASEAN and Japan.

Apart from major economies, China's trade with countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative increased by 9 percent during the period, with the pace of growth higher than the overall pace. Its trade with Belt and Road countries also accounted for a higher percentage compared with the same period last year.

With both internal and external encouraging signals, it is easy to see that a hard blow to China's foreign trade will not happen.

In addition, as China firmly upholds its opening-up policy, its development will continue benefiting other countries by creating jobs, investment opportunities and trade chances, especially considering the slowdown of international trade and global economic growth.

After the temporary effects of the trade war fade away, the world will see China's sound economic fundamentals remain. The country's far-sighted plans to promote economic reform and open up its market have paved the way for the steady development of its economy.

With or without the trade war, China will carry out its structural reform and opening-up to the global market. More opportunities are in store for those willing to equally cooperate with China.

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so china is now looking forward to a protracted trade war, so NK is looking forward to build more nuclear warheads and icbms, and iran is looking to pursuit uranium enrichment and nuclear bombs. Trump is a genius, all he is doing is to make the world more dangerous for us, militarily and economicaly

styx said:

so china is now looking forward to a protracted trade war, so NK is looking forward to build more nuclear warheads and icbms, and iran is looking to pursuit uranium enrichment and nuclear bombs. Trump is a genius, all he is doing is to make the world more dangerous for us, militarily and economicaly

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You can see the hawks are trying to pick a war with Iran to reassert dominance and remind the world who's the boss.

localizer said:

You can see the hawks are trying to pick a war with Iran to reassert dominance and remind the world who's the boss.

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i think that a US war on iran will be the tomb of american power. Too hard nut to crack for us