Trade War with China

Status
Not open for further replies.

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
Follow up from a third party:

"
If your query is with regard to the the difference between Investment-type VAT and Consumption-type VAT, it's as follows: Under Production/Investment-type VAT, the taxes levied on the purchases of fixed assets necessary for production, otherwise known as capital goods, are not allowed to be credited against VAT (Output) on sales of goods. Consumption-type VAT which is general used by the majority of nations allows for the VAT (input) on fixed assets to be credited against (output) VAT on Sales, be it straight-up or amortized over a period of time which differs per country.

Anyway, this change in treatment of VAT on capital goods and VAT rebates would have significantly reduced government revenues in relation to VAT. This is significant as the premise of the study is to re-estimate the growth figures based on publicly available data on VAT.
"

"
Very good response.

I’m quite surprised the authors didn’t mention this. It could explain why tax revenue growth from industrial companies was significantly lower than expected relative to pre-2008-2009.
"

and

"
The tax revenue growth relative to reported GDP growth trend changed significantly in 2008-2009. Why?

I reckon it is partly this January 1st 2009 tax change to tax investment relatively less, right before China’s Investment share as a % of GDP rose to a record high (in 2010). I also believe this is partly related to lower tax enforcement during the Great Financial Crisis aftermath. And to some overreporting of GDP growth.

My back of napkin calculations put this overreported GDP growth at 3-5% and not 12-16% like the authors.

"

"Companies with annual revenue below 360k RMB (roughly 53k USD) are exempt from VAT tax and all subsequent taxes. China has more than 65 million (2017 estimate) such micro companies, often single person, or single family (two people). If you multiply the two numbers together, it is up to 3.4 trillion USD per year. Just assuming only 1/4 to 1/2 is achieved, that is a 0.85 to 1.70 trillion USD economy, roughly 7% to 14% of overall Chinese GDP will have to be estimated, and can be potentially massively under reporting."

And from The Economist:

"Local and national figures for consumption are closely aligned. It is mainly industrial output and investment that are exaggerated. The downward revisions therefore result in a substantially different picture of the shape of China’s economy. The authors find that investment, properly measured, was 36% of gdp in 2016, not 43%, as the government says. Debt as a share of gdp is higher than officially reported, but the return to capital is not as low as feared and consumption is more prominent as an engine of growth. Looked at this way, the Chinese economy is smaller but better balanced and thus, perhaps, more resilient."
 

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member

Update: As of 10:00am GMT March 8, I haven’t gotten a response yet. This is likely because he is getting spammed with (far more important) reporters asking him questions. Will try again in a couple days...
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Oh, and a quick calculation of tax revenue growth relative to reported GDP growth shows that tax revenue growth post-2009 tax change should be roughly 8-10% lower than the previous trend. Maths: $150 billion in 2008 was 20% of total taxation, 20% over 9 years of taxation would imply revenue growth being 20% lower than expected, however Investment as a % of GDP fell below the 2008-2009 level in 2014 meaning that the tax change which was a tax cut 2009-2014 began to be a tax rise. Comparing the Investment as a % GDP over/under numbers for 2008-2016 shows that the 6 over years accounted for a cumulative 22% over, and the 3 under years accumulated a 9% under, leaving the net % at 13% over. So the tax revenue growth rate should be 13% less relative to pre-2009 trend. Nonetheless I adjust this for economic composition changes Services/Industry between 2008 and 2016 and the number falls to 8-10%. So in conclusion, the overreporting of GDP growth might be closer to 3-5% during 2008-2016 than the 12-16% the authors claim.”
 
now noticed the tweet
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!





Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said Saturday he sees "hope" in the prospect of China-US economic and trade consultations. "Teams from both countries are trying their best to implement the consensus reached by the two countries' heads of state," he said.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


D1MaTkHUcAAEudw.jpg
 
now noticed the tweet
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!





Direction of
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
negotiation agreed by leaders of both countries: Both sides to cancel import tariffs for the other, ultimately better for the interests of China, U.S. and the whole world, says Deputy China International Trade Representative Wang Shouwen
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


D1L5nshVAAAmOv1.jpg
 
now I read
08:05, 09-Mar-2019
Though the trade war is not effective, Trump still finds a new target
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

On March 4, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative issued a statement announcing that the U.S. government will terminate the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) treatment in India and Turkey.

Before the U.S. was about to sign a trade agreement with China, the statement was surprising, conveying to the outside world that the Trump administration would not stop the trade protection measures.

However, this new policy may have other implications.

After taking office, Trump has repeated the argument that too many countries account for the cheapness of the U.S. in trade, which is the main reason for the widening gap between the rich and the poor in the U.S. and the outflow of manufacturing.

This argument is the basis for the Trump administration to launch a trade war against other countries, and it is also supported by some Americans.

However, from a practical point of view, the trade war did not play a role promoted by the Trump administration, which is to narrow the U.S. trade deficit and encourage more manufacturing jobs to return to the mainland.

Recently, the U.S. government announced the latest trade account. In 2018, the U.S. trade deficit reached 621 billion U.S. dollars, the highest level since 2008. The trade deficit in December 2018 was also much higher than expected.

The expansion of the trade deficit can be explained in many ways, including the accelerated recovery of the U.S. economy and the importation. Traders have increased their stocks in order to avoid risks, and the value of the U.S. dollar has risen steadily. None of these is directly related to the trade war.

But for Trump, his only explanation for the expansion of the trade deficit is that tariffs are not high enough, and there are not enough countries to impose tariffs. Therefore, for Trump, finding a new tariff war target is a reasonable choice.

Because India and Turkey have little trade with the United States, Trump's decision will not have a major impact on the U.S. trade deficit, and the impact on the U.S. economy will be negligible. However, this approach has deeper intentions.

First, Trump tries to change the definition of developing countries. During the Cold War, in order to compete with the Soviet Union for the majority of the Third World countries, the U.S. gradually established and accepted the concept of developing countries, with the per capita gross national product as the criterion.

For political and geopolitical needs, Western countries have adopted relatively preferential trade policies for developing countries to compensate for the damage that long-term colonialism has caused to these countries.

Today, Trump is trying to change this standard. For India, Trump pointed out that the country's GDP growth rate is much higher than the United States, so it is no longer a country that can enjoy special treatment.

Trump believes that Turkey has fully developed. More than half of the developing countries will be excluded based on the new standards set by Trump. India and Turkey may be just the first countries to apply Trump's standards.

Second, Trump continues to expand his diplomatic tools, and tariff preferences have become one of them. Although the trade volume between the United States and India and Turkey is not large, the U.S. has demand for the two countries in other fields.

The United States hopes that India will play a more important role in the Indian-Pacific strategy, increase cooperation with the U.S. on defense and security, or directly, buy more American arms.

The U.S. demands that Turkey reduce its cooperation with Iran and Russia and assume more obligations on the Middle East issue.

Finally, Trump seeks to use this action to reshape the basic logic of globalization. Over the past 30 years, globalization has followed a basic philosophy that developing countries rely on exports to upgrade their economic development levels and create more wealth and overseas markets for developed countries.

Under this logic, the WTO provides special and differential treatment to developing countries to promote trade and industrial development in these regions.

Today, Trump seeks to take the lead in ending this model, no longer actively promoting the development of markets in developing countries, and requiring developing countries to compete with Western countries in the absence of strength.

Trump is pointing out a dangerous direction for populist leaders in the West, and this needs to be alarmed by the international community.
 
now I read
Hamburger and stir-fry diplomacy: how China and the United States showed goodwill in trade war talks
  • Senior Chinese official says delegations from both countries are working around the clock for a deal to scrap extra duties on billions of dollars in imports
  • Vice commerce minister does not respond to question about whether expected summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping has been delayed
Published: 12:57pm, 9 Mar, 2019
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Trade talks in Washington last month were so intense that Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer had to skip the usual formal lunch one day and dine in on takeaway, a Chinese official has revealed for the first time.

Vice commerce minister Wang Shouwen, a member of the Chinese delegation, said on Saturday that both sides pressed on with the negotiations for four days – through the weekend, heavy snow and a US government shutdown.

In a gesture of goodwill and desire for common ground, the heads of the two delegations ordered food representative of the other’s culture.

“Vice-Premier Liu He had a hamburger and Lighthizer had stir-fried chicken with eggplant. Neither of them had coffee or tea, but drank boiled water. You have to look for common ground,” Wang said in Beijing on the sidelines of the annual gathering of China’s peak legislative and advisory bodies.

“One day [in Washington] it was snowing and the US government had closed. But the commerce and trade delegations were still negotiating. The negotiations were also extended from two days to four days.”

Wang said both sides were working on an agreement to eliminate extra Chinese and US tariffs imposed since the start of a trade war between the two countries last year.

The US slapped three rounds of tariffs on more than US$250 billion of Chinese goods. Beijing hit back with tariffs on US$110 billion in US products. US President Donald Trump also threatened duties on another US$267 billion worth of imports from China but on February 24, the last day of Liu’s trip to Washington, Trump extended the deadline for the imposition of those duties.

While it had been widely expected that Chinese President Xi Jinping would soon go to Trump’s Florida resort Mar-a-Lago to sign a deal to end the trade war, US officials said the meeting would be postponed.

On Friday, US ambassador to China Terry Branstad said the summit had been delayed because the deal was still under discussion.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the meeting could take place in April.

“It is historic, it is written down, it was agreed to by the Chinese who were here two weeks ago, but it has to pass through the political filter of President Xi and the Politburo,” Kudlow said. “Perhaps a meeting of the leaders later this month or in April. Perhaps.”

Trump said on Friday that he was confident the United States could forge a trade deal with China, but his country would do very well with or without an agreement.

“Sure, I’m confident [of a deal with China], but if we do not make a very good deal for our country, I wouldn’t make a deal,” he said.

Asked about a report that China was not positive about a trade deal and that a meeting with Xi might not happen: “I haven’t heard that. I think we’re doing well ... We’ll do very well either way, with or without a deal.”

White House trade adviser Clete Willems said there was much work still to do but Trump administration officials had not made any new plans to send a team to China for face-to-face trade talks.

“We’re talking to [Chinese officials] every day, but no one’s got any trip plans,” Willems said.

In Beijing, Wang, from the Ministry of Commerce, did not respond to a question about a delay to the summit, saying instead that he was optimistic about progress.

“For the prospects for the next step, I see hope,” Wang said. “The two delegations are still working on the documents for a trade deal day and night now.”

The delegations met in Beijing on the first day after China’s week-long Lunar New Year holiday. Three days later the Chinese delegation flew to Washington to continue the talks.

Wang said the delegations had made “concrete advances” in the negotiations and the talks were still in high gear “in order to remove all additional tariffs ... so both sides can get back on the normal track”.

Kudlow said the emerging deal would provide “an end to the theft of intellectual property” through forced technology transfers and hacking of computer networks.

“We will get substantially lower tariffs, or maybe an end to tariffs on cars, commodities, agriculture, industrial supplies. We will get an enforcement procedure,” he said.

“If the deal doesn’t work for the United States, and our long-term interests, whether it’s technology, IP, theft, enforcement, commodities, tariffs ... then it’s not our deal.”

The deal is expected to include a big commitment from China to buy American goods but Commerce Minister Zhong Shan said China would try to maintain the level of foreign trade this year.

“China’s foreign trade increased in scale and development and in quality last year, even though the foreign trade environment was very complex, with more uncertainties and instability,” Zhong said.

“Our priority will be to maintain supportive policies to stabilise foreign trade this year.”

He said the private sector was important to overseas trade, particularly in improving the quality of exports.

“Exports by private enterprises accounted for 48 per cent of the country’s total foreign trade exports,” Zhong said. “Many vehicles, machine tools and electronic exports are produced by private companies.

“We need to further support the development of private companies, encouraging them to play a bigger role.”

While China has indicated it will not give in to US demands for structural changes to its economy, a new foreign investment law set to go to a vote in the National People’s Congress next week suggests China is keen to send a message that it will ensure a fairer playing field for foreign investors.

Wang said the legislation would further protect intellectual property and currency exchanges easier for foreign companies in China.

He said foreign investment in China rose 1.3 per cent last year, as global cross-border capital investment dropped 19 per cent, according to data from the United Nations.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Trump and his cronies need to be investigated for insider trading. The extreme volatility is all due to his blabbering and it's well known that powerful people do these favors for each other. There's unprecedented potential for this since he came into power.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Trump prepared to walk away from ‘bad’ China trade deal

A senior White House official said president Donald Trump was prepared to “walk away” from a “bad” trade deal with China, stressing that there is “work left to be done” in the negotiations before an agreement can be finalised.
Clete Willems, the deputy director of Mr Trump’s National Economic Council, said at a conference at Georgetown Law School on Friday that the US administration was “cautiously trying to remain optimistic” about the prospects for a deal, and negotiations were continuing in “good faith”.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Jesus Christ

Founder of Florida spa tied to Robert Kraft case offered access to Trump and family at Mar-a-Lago to Chinese clients

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Cindy (Li) Yang, a Florida entrepreneur who founded a chain of spas and massage parlors that included the one where New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft was arrested recently for allegedly soliciting prostitution, also runs a consulting business that has offered to sell Chinese clients access to President Donald Trump and his family at Mar-a-Lago, according to the company's website.

Mother Jones,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, says Yang could not be reached for comment. The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Yang, a donor to the Republican Party and Trump campaign, popped up this week in photos showing her at a Super Bowl viewing party at the Trump-owned Mar-a-Lago that included a selfie with the president,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

Sleazy rich and powerful people divide the poor based on racial and ethnic lines, but never based on class. They run off with the money together.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Image Album

Y3htZTg.jpg

oczQbkM.jpg
BjoAKu3.jpg


I hope Xi takes care of these treacherous pos.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
I don’t see what’s treasonous about this. It’s just exploiting the corruption in America. Besides she is not Chinese anymore than Trump is German. America is a nation of immigrants built on a set of ideas. And both Trump and this lady have fully taken in the American way. Their values are no longer that of their parent society.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top