Trade War with China

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Dolcevita

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localizer said:
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China GDP overstated by 12%, new research says

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Really? FT

Do you expect us to rely solely on a research paper by 2 Chinese University of Hong Kong PhD Students? Not saying they are wrong but they do not carry much weight in the overall scheme of things. FT is selling this as something more significant than what it is.

The paper even conclude with " our estimates suggest that the extent by which local governments exaggerate local GDP accelerated after 2008, but the magnitude of the adjustment by the NBS did not change in tandem. As a consequence, our best estimate is that the true growth rate of GDP is probably overstated by almost 2 percentage points from 2008 to 2016. "

Not as much conviction as the article suggest and that graph is nowhere to be found in the research paper.
 
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Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

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here come the tweets
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and
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:
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:
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has filed a lawsuit against the US government over a ban on its network gear: company statement

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Huawei also accused the US government of hacking its servers, stealing company emails and source code at a press conference held in Shenzhen on Thursday

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plawolf

plawolf

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localizer said:
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China GDP overstated by 12%, new research says

http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fd76df3e8-3fe0-11e9-b896-fe36ec32aece


Original paper:
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Even a casual examination of the assumptions in that piece shows glaring inconsistencies.

The authors spend much of the article outlining the incentives for local governments to overstate growth figures, but doesn’t apply any skepticism to the VAT figures produced by the same local authorities and brushes that entire possibility aside with a one-liner about how local authorities have no incentive to overstate VAT, as that will incur a financial liability.

I mean, it’s not like tax avoidance is a known problem is it? :rolleyes:

We are expected to take for granted that local authorities would risk overstating growth figures, but believe they would somehow draw the line at understating VAT to reduce the amount of tax money they need to send to the central treasury?

This error is so glaring one cannot help but wonder about the motivations of this piece.

The fact that all the authors are from Hong Kong also raises red flags, as it’s the same universities which helped spawned the infamous umbrella movement.

Personally I think it is long past time China followed Australia’s lead and took a good hard look at foreign influences in HK academia.
 
localizer

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
plawolf said:
Even a casual examination of the assumptions in that piece shows glaring inconsistencies.

The authors spend much of the article outlining the incentives for local governments to overstate growth figures, but doesn’t apply any skepticism to the VAT figures produced by the same local authorities and brushes that entire possibility aside with a one-liner about how local authorities have no incentive to overstate VAT, as that will incur a financial liability.

I mean, it’s not like tax avoidance is a known problem is it? :rolleyes:

We are expected to take for granted that local authorities would risk overstating growth figures, but believe they would somehow draw the line at understating VAT to reduce the amount of tax money they need to send to the central treasury?

This error is so glaring one cannot help but wonder about the motivations of this piece.

The fact that all the authors are from Hong Kong also raises red flags, as it’s the same universities which helped spawned the infamous umbrella movement.

Personally I think it is long past time China followed Australia’s lead and took a good hard look at foreign influences in HK academia.
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Yea I read FT pretty often but to see articles like these make me wonder if it’s turning into the Economist. They are ignoring reports that China’s GDP is likely underestimated because of tax avoidance and side economic activities that everyone does. And also using Chinese provided data when the whole article is about doubting their data? Tsinghua should strip the guy of his position there.
 
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CMP

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The incentive is to paint China in a weaker light so that the Trump administration will feel emboldened to refuse a compromise deal and continue pushing for total surrender. Treasonous rats in Hong Kong would have every incentive to do this, and should be detained. This is coming from people who don't want there to be a deal.
 
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Biscuits

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It’s all smoke and mirrors to let Trump save face while withdrawing.

Anyone who follow sales numbers know that the economy is severely undervalued, not the reverse. You have holiday sales making 2x more money than US equivalents despite China on paper only having 25% larger economy.
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

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now noticed the tweet
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China customs has suspended the clearance of
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imports from Canadian company Richardson International Limited and relevant firms after harmful pests were discovered in their imports

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localizer

localizer

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Chinese Officials Becoming Wary of a Quick Trade Deal

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BEIJING — President Trump says he is optimistic that a landmark trade deal with China is close. Chinese officials are not so sure.

The two sides in recent weeks agreed to the broad outlines of an agreement that would roll back tariffs in both countries, with China buying more American goods and opening up some markets to foreign goods. The trade deal looks like a good one for Beijing, since it would largely spare the government from making substantive changes to its economy.

But some of the biggest details — like the enforcement mechanism to ensure China complies and the timing for the removal of tariffs — still haven’t been hammered out. Beijing officials are wary that the final terms may be less favorable, especially given Mr. Trump’s propensity for last-minute changes, according to two people familiar with China’s position.
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Lol Just Chinese officials not so sure? Look at all the investors (holding) who already priced the uncertainty into the stocks.
 
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