Trade War with China

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Jesus Christ

Founder of Florida spa tied to Robert Kraft case offered access to Trump and family at Mar-a-Lago to Chinese clients

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Sleazy rich and powerful people divide the poor based on racial and ethnic lines, but never based on class. They run off with the money together.

I hope Xi takes care of these treacherous pos.

Greed also knows no borders. I hope the US takes care of such treasonous behavior!

I don’t see what’s treasonous about this. It’s just exploiting the corruption in America. Besides she is not Chinese anymore than Trump is German. America is a nation of immigrants built on a set of ideas. And both Trump and this lady have fully taken in the American way. Their values are no longer that of their parent society.

Again, greed is a human vice, not limited to particular countries or cultures.
 
now I read
20:17, 10-Mar-2019
China-U.S. restraints: Who needs a trade deal?
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Some media outlets in the region and the West are trying to give the impression that China is desperate for a trade deal with the United States.

In reality, it's the exact opposite. U.S. President Donald Trump and his political and foreign-policy elites are the ones desperate for anything positive. Signing a trade deal with Beijing will serve their political interests in this darkest hour, ahead of the 2020 election.

All in all, the rapid growth of U.S. trade deficits has nothing to do with the Asian giant or its increasing global trade and practices.

They simply reflect the failure of the Trump administration's trade policies, as well as the negative impact of tax cuts and spending increases. Data from the Federal Reserve should substantiate that.

The U.S. economy is set to a downturn this year because total American household net worth fell by 4 trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2018.

This decline is the single largest quarterly dollar drop on record. The loss of 4 trillion U.S. dollars could further lead to a drop in consumer spending and a corresponding contraction of economic growth for the United States.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) assumes worse still, given trade uncertainty and anticipation of future Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, and monetary policy tightening. The IMF predicts that the U.S. current account deficit – the broadest measure of U.S. trade in goods, services, and income – will nearly double by 2022.

The sentiment is also shared by the U.S. Census Bureau. It concludes that the rapid growth of U.S. trade deficits reflects the failure of the Trump administration's trade policies, as well as the negative impacts of tax cuts and spending increases, "which have sharply increased the federal budget deficit, and tightening of U.S. monetary policy, resulting in upward pressure on interest rates and the real value of the dollar."

A rough translation of all this should go like this: America's 45th president and his interventionist foreign policy team need to find ways to offset these disturbing trends. Trump promised during his 2016 campaign to narrow the trade deficit and encourage more manufacturing jobs to return to the mainland.

His trade war with China and tariff restraints with the European Union (EU) amounted much ado about nothing much. They did little to reduce the massive imbalance in trade flows between the U.S., China, and the EU.

That's because the most important cause of U.S. trade deficits – which will continue to grow this year – is the persistent rising dollar, persistent trade surpluses, Trump's populist policies, as well as large structural surpluses accumulated by the European Union.

At the same time, data from the Federal Reserve shows that "tax cuts will add more than 1 trillion U.S. dollars to U.S. fiscal deficits over the next decade, putting upward pressure on interest rates and the U.S. dollar."

This has to be a momentous failure for Trump administration policies. This trend, this continuing upward pressure on the trade deficit, as well as downward pressure on employment and output in U.S. manufacturing, are the reasons why President Trump and his team need to settle for a deal with the Asian behemoth.

Hope springs eternal, but contrary evidence keeps emerging, though. Robert Lighthizer, Trump's trade representative, who is also leading Washington's current trade negotiations with Beijing, has told reporters that Trump will only accept a trade deal that is "deep, structural and enforceable."

He is free to say "there's no agreement on anything until there's agreement on everything." But he is wrong to imagine that if China agrees to a level playing field in trade, it is going to solve the structural problems of the United States.

Given the structural problems in the U.S. and China's rising global trade position that is based on shared future and prosperity, the isolationists in Washington are not in a position to force a stronger China to capitulate.

Judging by the recent comments made by officials in Beijing, the world's second-biggest economy is willing to make adjustments and accept some short-term pains, such as the economic harm that tariffs inflict on its manufacturers. But it won't be coerced into signing a deal it doesn't want.

In many respects, the former businessman-turned-president, including some influential members of his own party, whose hawkish stances run in the opposite direction, are suffering from numerous setbacks both at home and abroad.

One way or another, Trump will have to settle for a swift deal with the Asian giant in order to shore up his base in the industrial states that delivered him the presidency.

If the recent facts and statistics by the IMF, the Federal Reserve, and the U.S. Census Bureau are any indication, an end to the ill-fated trade dispute with China could help to some extent address part of America's global trade imbalances. It's in their best economic interests.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Exactly right on the button. It is not China that is desperate for the deal if anything it is the other way around. so all those talk about China cave in to the RH demand is just a hype

Some media outlets in the region and the West are trying to give the impression that China is desperate for a trade deal with the United States.

In reality, it's the exact opposite. U.S. President Donald Trump and his political and foreign-policy elites are the ones desperate for anything positive. Signing a trade deal with Beijing will serve their political interests in this darkest hour, ahead of the 2020 election.

All in all, the rapid growth of U.S. trade deficits has nothing to do with the Asian giant or its increasing global trade and practices.

They simply reflect the failure of the Trump administration's trade policies, as well as the negative impact of tax cuts and spending increases. Data from the Federal Reserve should substantiate that.

The U.S. economy is set to a downturn this year because total American household net worth fell by 4 trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2018.
 

advill

Junior Member
Maybe a little time longer, but I believe the Trade War will likely end with most of the items on the agenda agreed amicably. It's good for US & China to reach an agreement, as the alternative would be disastrous. However, how long this agreement/s would continue to be in place depends on the on-going moves made by the Trump Administration & China's Leadership. I am sure Chinese analysts would also look beyond present Trump's Administration & the US 2020 Presidential Election, whether outcome could be predicted re: on-going Trade, Investments etc. Hopefully the World & particularly the Regions would be at Peace with Progress for most countries. Wishful thinking? Well it depends on the US & China to make it happen. Medium & Smaller countries patiently wait for the outcomes.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Trump admin wants a deal but too many voices against the current one including the Democrats, and conservatives.
 

Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
I actually traded the currency movement coming off this news. The numbers are different from the news wire.

View attachment 51323

If you traded currencies based on China's March 2018 data, you would have lost. In that month,
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(-57.5 billion). The next month it roared back, to +262.8. By Nov 2018, China's trade surplus was +418.6 billion. If you based your currency trading on March 2018's negative number, you would have lost a bundle.
 
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Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Trump admin wants a deal but too many voices against the current one including the Democrats, and conservatives.

Most US politicians regardless of party wants the deal since their areas are severely affected and they need the votes.

Getting Xi to approve it is the biggest hurdle. China hasnt publicize demands yet, but in general this admin tolerates demands adherence to international rules first before allowing fruitful negotiation and taking pressure off. We saw this in the SCS negotiations. First after all ASEAN have decided to not trespass on Chinese territory & seas did they get to negotiate about sharing the seas.

US can most likely get a favorable deal. But they would have to first play fair. Once America removes all tariffs, end state interference in Chinese companies, releases Chinese hostage(s) etc. then China would be more than willing to help Trump with a very favorable treaty for both sides that will see core fears like the trade deficit addressed, just like Duterte got a very good deal for the Philippines over the SCS.
 
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