Trade War with China

Max Demian said:

What are your opinions on this:

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It would appear that there is some justification in expecting a concession to US demands for fairer treatment of US companies operating in China. Or would it?

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Equation said:

You never raise any new points and you never say anything useful. Could China have been better prepared if it foresaw the challenge in 2014? Of course! But it was not foreseen, by either the US or China really, and you didn't predict it either. Hindsight's always 20/20. What's the next big challenge? What, other than the obvious need to improve technology, will challenge China in 2025? 2030? 2035? Do you know? Hell no. What's the point in saying we could have been better prepared if we foresaw it 5 years earlier? Forget that the rise of Donald Trump is an unforeseeable sudden death struggle the initiated in the US (no country, no US ally would have predicted America to suddenly become so closed and unreliable so suddenly to the point where a poll says that Germans in 2019 regard China as a more reliable partner than the US); even if an event could have been foreseen but it was not, what is the point in blaming the past? The blame game only serves to bring disunity in your team; the energy spent there should be diverted to future strategies. We can only take things as they come and China's current reactions are as good as it gets.

The appropriate Chinese proverb for this situation would be to "defeat 10,000 changes with no change." The US has thrown everything including the kitchen sink at Huawei to attack it. Huawei instead just continues to do what it does best, and the result is a decoupling of American allies from the US for its petty behavior and with Huawei signing dozens of 5G deals around the world. Even those who are not swayed (yet) to sign with Huawei have spoken out and internally realize how pathetic America's behavior is. Huawei engaged in no hostilities in response to American hostility and won the hearts of people and that's what a business is about. It's not about defeating people and putting them into dire straits; that' war. If Huawei and China immediately started attacking US companies, then the mud-slinging would begin and through the muddied waters from which no one can make out the truth, US allies will instinctively band with the US and see this as a no-morals China vs USA fight. "Defeat 10,000 changes with no change"

The same is true on a national scale; trade wars tend to bring the most damage to the nations to which it brings the most change. One country can engage recklessly in large sweeping changes while another can be more guarded and analytical, resisting the instinct to meet fire with more fire but responding in a much more well-thought out way. Which of these 2 kinds of people usually wins a chess match?

I feel like I have to type the same thing to you over and over again. Why don't you read former posts? Victory is not about being the loudest person in the room, as you obviously think it is; victory is the results. For the past few decades, America has always been the loudest person in the room and China has always been the one to grow the improve the fastest. It seems you prefer the volume instead. Chinese results, including GDP growth, successful transition to consumer-based economy, national unity, growing trade surplus with the US, etc... compared with the US political circus and the very real concern of a US slowdown amid already slow growth is showing that the current Chinese strategy is the winning one.

Trust China's leadership, which has delivered its nation from a country that resembles modern Venezuela to the only one that makes Americans truly fear for their future; you are one common man with no privileged knowledge. Recognize your smallness.

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tidalwave said:

No, writing is on the wall. If China want to build large scale Semiconductor industry and built man made island on SCS, some type of war will be coming to China, trade war or real war. In this case, trade war. You don't have to do hindsight, it's automatic from US.

You don't think it affect Huawei? In 2018, Huawei revenue is $100 billion, let see it's revenue in 2019, 2020. Time will tell who's right.

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tidalwave said:

Since China totally unprepared for this trade war.

I think now the best strategy is to accept US demand fully. Yes, accept humiliation now.

And implement whta they have to do. Develope rural areas and mlhave migrant workers stay there. Cut down on traditional manufacturing.

Secretly channel fund to Semiconductor companies and have them made products only for government and military and not public consumption yet this way Western source can't find out.

And yes, renegade this unfair trade deal in 3 years.

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Days after offering an olive branch to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for a signing meeting at Mar-a-Lago, U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Thursday that he was "always prepared to walk [away from a trade deal with China]" if it is not good enough.

"The president is applying his ‘art of the deal' again to win more leverage in future negotiations with China," Wu Xinbo, director of Fudan University's Center for American Studies, told CGTN. China and the United States have achieved applauded breakthroughs in the latest talks, but Trump want more, Wu explained.

Cheng Dawei, a professor at the School of Economics of China's Renmin University, echoed Wu. "After seven rounds of bargaining, the two sides are finalizing details of the possible deal. At this last critical moment, Trump's cautiousness highlights the importance he has attached to the potential accord," Cheng said.

But Cheng warned about the perils of U.S. politics. China's position on trade frictions is consistent and firm, but the U.S. president and his aides, since the very beginning of the talks, have sent a series of conflicting signals.

Washington's internal spats, according to Cheng, are the most overwhelming uncertainty to the deal. Despite his eagerness to end the multi-lose fight with the world's second-largest economy, Trump is under heavy pressure from not only his hawkish GOP colleagues but also the rivaling Democrats.

While the president's ultimate goal was to fix trade deficit, the rest of his administration are more interested in China's structural changes. "Trade imbalance was top on the agenda in the initial stage of the talks. But now intellectual property, "forced" technology transfer and other structural issues, in which Trump showed no interest at the very beginning, are put on the table," Wu noted, stressing that "the president is yielding to his hawkish colleagues, especially Robert Lighthizer."

Despite "substantial progress" on structural concerns, Lighthizer claimed earlier that "much still needs to be done" both before and after the signing of the possible agreement. This may explain why the president warned to walk away just days after showing his goodwill to Beijing.

For Trump, the Democratic Party is more difficult to deal with. It's worth noting that Lighthizer sparred with lawmakers Wednesday on whether or not the accord requires congressional approval. "Democrats insist the potential deal be submitted to the Congress so that they can seize this opportunity to find fault with GOPs," Cheng said.

Despite the political struggle within the White House, experts strike a positive tone on the prospect of the trade accord. "Trump's colleagues may exert some effects on the trade talks, but the president will make the final decision," Wu said, adding that "Trump's character determines he will prioritize his strong impulse of ending the trade war over advice from people around him."

Perplexed by a slew of political scandals, Trump is itching for a diplomatic victory to divert domestic attention. A deal with Beijing will be a stimulus to the U.S. economy and a boon for American grassroots citizens, who were the main supporters of Trump's 2016 election campaign.

Compared with China's structural reform that does not show up on his electoral radar, Trump is more willing to see Beijing's additional purchase of American agricultural products, an effective way to boost the exports of swing states.

Structural issue is not something that can be fundamentally addressed in several rounds of talks. While certain commitments such as purchases of American goods could be realized in a short time frame, reforms that would have to go through China's legislative process could take from five to 10 years to accomplish, Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Cui Tiankai was quoted by South China Morning Post as saying.

China has reiterated its commitments to open its economy and deepen its reform. The White House should trust China's sincerity and determination and be less demanding on the country's structural reform at the current stage. Despite his harsh rhetoric, Trump has the wisdom to make the right choice that would best serve the interests of both sides.

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CMP said:

Just the other day I was reading about how you can make more in China delivering food in the cities, for Meituan Dianping as an example (~750-1000 USD per month), than you can working in low end manufacturing (~400-750 USD per month). Not to mention the difference in work-life balance and the difference in how grueling the work is. And seeing as how services is now 60% of the Chinese economy, I also wouldn't overstate the impact of some outsourcing, consolidating, or downsizing of low end manufacturing. It is also now a widespread phenomena for factories in low end manufacturing being unable to find enough hires at the wages they are willing/able to pay (hence the outsourcing and relocating).

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Max Demian said:

Wow. Those food delivery salaries are on par, if not better than comparable jobs in Eastern Europe. Which province are we talking about?

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Max Demian said:

Wow. Those food delivery salaries are on par, if not better than comparable jobs in Eastern Europe. Which province are we talking about?

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Lawyers for Huawei (from left) Robert Westinghouse, Brian Heberlig and James Hibey arrive at federal court in Seattle, Washington, on Thursday. Photo: Bloomberg

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• Huawei denies in a Seattle court that it engaged in a scheme to steal trade secrets from T-Mobile, committed wire fraud and obstructed justice
• A ruling by Canada is expected on Friday on whether extradition hearings against Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou should proceed