Trade War with China

Status
Not open for further replies.

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Negotiations do not happen in a vaccum. With the NK talks achieving nothing, and the pressure mounting at home for Trump with allegations from his former lawyer and more to come from the Muller investigation, Trump is under increasing pressure to produce some positive results.

That makes it more likely he would settle for a good enough deal that allows him to claim a victory instead of allowing the hawks on the negotiations team to scuttle the talks with ridiculous demands.

Those hawks are there to play bad cop, so what Trump actually wants seems ‘reasonable’ in comparison. Their rabid bluster and wet dreams does not necessarily represent Trump’s position; and it is Trump who ultimately calls the shots.

I would expect the announced headline details to favour the Americans, as they need the PR win, but what China will get will be what is not covered by the agreement, and what are hidden in the small print.

I would not be surprised if upon first reading of any agreement, it looks like America got the better deal, because the Americans will be most concerned with the optics of the deal. What China will focus on instead will be the substance.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
At this point I’m pretty sure China wants no deal.

I mean, they haven’t even publicly stated their demands.

Bottom line is, the best offer America can give to China is to become irrelevant. That’s not something Trump can write on the big print or the small print.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Negotiations do not happen in a vaccum. With the NK talks achieving nothing, and the pressure mounting at home for Trump with allegations from his former lawyer and more to come from the Muller investigation, Trump is under increasing pressure to produce some positive results.

That makes it more likely he would settle for a good enough deal that allows him to claim a victory instead of allowing the hawks on the negotiations team to scuttle the talks with ridiculous demands.

Those hawks are there to play bad cop, so what Trump actually wants seems ‘reasonable’ in comparison. Their rabid bluster and wet dreams does not necessarily represent Trump’s position; and it is Trump who ultimately calls the shots.

I would expect the announced headline details to favour the Americans, as they need the PR win, but what China will get will be what is not covered by the agreement, and what are hidden in the small print.

I would not be surprised if upon first reading of any agreement, it looks like America got the better deal, because the Americans will be most concerned with the optics of the deal. What China will focus on instead will be the substance.

It's not all bluster from US hawk like lighthizer.

Here some of things specifically put down in print
1)demands cutting China subsidies substanstially in certain sectors. Well most likely Semiconductor and agriculture.

2)can't manipulate currency anymore, have to report to US on any moves.

Any above violations, US can immediately slap tariffs back.

When you said the Hawks won't allow Trump make the deal if not favorable.

Guess what, those Hawks now consists the bipartisan groups both Republican and Democrats. They are the majority now.

Trump is all by himself
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
The idea is if China doesn't do what's told by US, then decoupling will follow. They place the ball in China's court.
Pence spoke in public about this. Either China yield to the demand or full decoupling will follow.
Morici is just one of the many holding this view. In fact, it's the prevalent view among conservatives.

If you dont believe that's bluffing, then the next question how China deal with decoupling rather than analyzing the cost to US companies.

So... decoupling doesn't happened overnight... and it'll cost them more in the end no matter what. Corporations don't outsource to countries because they're doing it for humanitarian purposes. They do it because that's where they get the most bang for their buck. If Vietnam was the best bang for their buck, all of them would be there instantly. Vietnam's raw materials to make things for the US comes from China. Where are their shipping fleets to buy those raw materials around the world? They don't have them. So who's going to pay for them? Vietnam or the US? It doesn't matter because it'll cost more money to produce whatever is outsourced. Prices go up. That's a killer in business. Like I said... if they don't need China, why this dance with tariffs? Just end trade.

So what it's a prevalent view of conservatives. Is that suppose to mean something? They support Trump and since when has Trump succeeded in anything he's done? Trump believed the US made billions upon billions from tariffs from China's Single's Day. He thinks the US got to tariff products made bought and sold within China. The US can decouple and you don't think China will adjust? Americans are greedy. That's their weakness. They've been salivating on selling to over a billion people forever. You think the US can let China go on it's own way and the US goes theirs? You think the US will have success trying to get export dependent countries around the world not to look at China to make money? The only way they can do that is by buying them off with lots of money that the US doesn't have. Yeah I won't be surprised if the US demands China keep buying bonds from the US so they can do that.

Decouple! Go ahead. They believe Apple is a Chinese company hence why they think if Apple leaves China they won't make all the money from iPhones being sold. If Apple was a Chinese company how can they order a Chinese company to leave China? So all the damage they think they can do to China blows back right on them because Apple is an American company not Chinese.
 
Last edited:

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
At this point I’m pretty sure China wants no deal.

I mean, they haven’t even publicly stated their demands.

Bottom line is, the best offer America can give to China is to become irrelevant. That’s not something Trump can write on the big print or the small print.


Since China totally unprepared for this trade war.

I think now the best strategy is to accept US demand fully. Yes, accept humiliation now.

And implement whta they have to do. Develope rural areas and mlhave migrant workers stay there. Cut down on traditional manufacturing.

Secretly channel fund to Semiconductor companies and have them made products only for government and military and not public consumption yet this way Western source can't find out.

And yes, renegade this unfair trade deal in 3 years.
 

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
Since China totally unprepared for this trade war.

I think now the best strategy is to accept US demand fully. Yes, accept humiliation now.

And implement whta they have to do. Develope rural areas and mlhave migrant workers stay there. Cut down on traditional manufacturing.

Secretly channel fund to Semiconductor companies and have them made products only for government and military and not public consumption yet this way Western source can't find out.

And yes, renegade this unfair trade deal in 3 years.

Disagree fully. Reject any unequal treaty. Do not treat an unequal treaty as a way to buy time. That's what every losing nation does in history. Renege in 3 years? In 3 years, Chinese business will have adapted to the unequal treaties and be against reneging and triggering another trade war. Refuse all unequal treaties. Trade war will be trade war. Let's fight.
 

Max Demian

Junior Member
Registered Member
What are your opinions on this:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


It would appear that there is some justification in expecting a concession to US demands for fairer treatment of US companies operating in China. Or would it?
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Disagree fully. Reject any unequal treaty. Do not treat an unequal treaty as a way to buy time. That's what every losing nation does in history. Renege in 3 years? In 3 years, Chinese business will have adapted to the unequal treaties and be against reneging and triggering another trade war. Refuse all unequal treaties. Trade war will be trade war. Let's fight.

Under Sun Tsu strategy, there's such case of buying 10 yrs time. It's in Chinese history.

Time is everything, US knows currently this is the last chance to loop China in.

If China does sign any trade deal, it's going this route.
 
Last edited:

Equation

Lieutenant General
But the fact Chinese delegates have to seat there and listen to this unequal terms and insults from US shown China is from the position of weakness. Even If they just try to keep the talk alive to buy more times it shown Xi didn't prepare for this trade war in advance. Had they prepare they wouldn't have to seat down and listen to those BS. China years ago, should purposely scale down the export business, have migrant workers stay at rural area for development which they just roll out such program beginning 2019. Lacking the migrant workers needed for manufacturing, export would diminished years ago and structure would look different today.But the easy export money is too much temptation for the country like opium.

Also US attacked China tech companies left and right yet China couldn't counter punch against US tech companies in return shown China hands being tied , afraid enraging the situation further more and all products being taxed 25%. Again , it shown China not prepared. Some folks argue China is more hoslitic and have more loftier goal, wouldn't engage with US in this type of mudslinging, well that's Ah Q attitude from well known author of Lu Shin, thw novel of a defeatist ,Ah Q trying to comfort himself despite suffered humiliation.

You never raise any new points and you never say anything useful. Could China have been better prepared if it foresaw the challenge in 2014? Of course! But it was not foreseen, by either the US or China really, and you didn't predict it either. Hindsight's always 20/20. What's the next big challenge? What, other than the obvious need to improve technology, will challenge China in 2025? 2030? 2035? Do you know? Hell no. What's the point in saying we could have been better prepared if we foresaw it 5 years earlier? Forget that the rise of Donald Trump is an unforeseeable sudden death struggle the initiated in the US (no country, no US ally would have predicted America to suddenly become so closed and unreliable so suddenly to the point where a poll says that Germans in 2019 regard China as a more reliable partner than the US); even if an event could have been foreseen but it was not, what is the point in blaming the past? The blame game only serves to bring disunity in your team; the energy spent there should be diverted to future strategies. We can only take things as they come and China's current reactions are as good as it gets.

The appropriate Chinese proverb for this situation would be to "defeat 10,000 changes with no change." The US has thrown everything including the kitchen sink at Huawei to attack it. Huawei instead just continues to do what it does best, and the result is a decoupling of American allies from the US for its petty behavior and with Huawei signing dozens of 5G deals around the world. Even those who are not swayed (yet) to sign with Huawei have spoken out and internally realize how pathetic America's behavior is. Huawei engaged in no hostilities in response to American hostility and won the hearts of people and that's what a business is about. It's not about defeating people and putting them into dire straits; that' war. If Huawei and China immediately started attacking US companies, then the mud-slinging would begin and through the muddied waters from which no one can make out the truth, US allies will instinctively band with the US and see this as a no-morals China vs USA fight. "Defeat 10,000 changes with no change"

The same is true on a national scale; trade wars tend to bring the most damage to the nations to which it brings the most change. One country can engage recklessly in large sweeping changes while another can be more guarded and analytical, resisting the instinct to meet fire with more fire but responding in a much more well-thought out way. Which of these 2 kinds of people usually wins a chess match?

I feel like I have to type the same thing to you over and over again. Why don't you read former posts? Victory is not about being the loudest person in the room, as you obviously think it is; victory is the results. For the past few decades, America has always been the loudest person in the room and China has always been the one to grow the improve the fastest. It seems you prefer the volume instead. Chinese results, including GDP growth, successful transition to consumer-based economy, national unity, growing trade surplus with the US, etc... compared with the US political circus and the very real concern of a US slowdown amid already slow growth is showing that the current Chinese strategy is the winning one.

Trust China's leadership, which has delivered its nation from a country that resembles modern Venezuela to the only one that makes Americans truly fear for their future; you are one common man with no privileged knowledge. Recognize your smallness.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
So... decoupling doesn't happened overnight... and it'll cost them more in the end no matter what. Corporations don't outsource to countries because they're doing it for humanitarian purposes. They do it because that's where they get the most bang for their buck. If Vietnam was the best bang for their buck, all of them would be there instantly. Vietnam's raw materials to make things for the US comes from China. Where are their shipping fleets to buy those raw materials around the world? They don't have them. So who's going to pay for them? Vietnam or the US? It doesn't matter because it'll cost more money to produce whatever is outsourced. Prices go up. That's a killer in business. Like I said... if they don't need China, why this dance with tariffs? Just end trade.

So what it's a prevalent view of conservatives. Is that suppose to mean something? They support Trump and since when has Trump succeeded in anything he's done? Trump believed the US made billions upon billions from tariffs from China's Single's Day. He thinks the US got to tariff products made bought and sold within China. The US can decouple and you don't think China will adjust? Americans are greedy. That's their weakness. They've been salivating on selling to over a billion people forever. You think the US can let China go on it's own way and the US goes theirs? You think the US will have success trying to get export dependent countries around the world not to look at China to make money? The only way they can do that is by buying them off with lots of money that the US doesn't have. Yeah I won't be surprised if the US demands China keep buying bonds from the US so they can do that.

Decouple! Go ahead. They believe Apple is a Chinese company hence why they think if Apple leaves China they won't make all the money from iPhones being sold. If Apple was a Chinese company how can they order a Chinese company to leave China? So all the damage they think they can do to China blows back right on them because Apple is an American company not Chinese.
Decoupling is happening, ironically not so much f US companies but alot of Taiwanese, Korean, Japanese companies move out of China to avoid the tariff.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top