Trade War with China
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It looks like when reading that SCMP article that Xi is at the brink of being forced to sign an unequal treaty. Well done trade team under the lead of Liu He. When Xi signs this history will look at this point as the turning point of Chinese development and curse him.
The idea is if China doesn't do what's told by US, then decoupling will follow. They place the ball in China's court.
Pence spoke in public about this. Either China yield to the demand or full decoupling will follow.
Morici is just one of the many holding this view. In fact, it's the prevalent view among conservatives.
If you dont believe that's bluffing, then the next question how China deal with decoupling rather than analyzing the cost to US companies.
Take into account it’s a Western man posting on SCMP. That makes its validity more than a little suspect. And from reading it, I can see it clearly represents a Western take on things. I agree that if that article represents an accurate view of the whole situation, that this looks really bad. But the article itself appears highly suspect.
Not impressed with the skills on the US team. They’ve been crying out wins again and again without anything to show for it.
First time they said China has promised to buy more, but China actually reduced imports. Second time they said the war has costed China billions “in tariffs” but it turns out they are 40 billion behind.
And it is President Trump’s regime that is under pressure right now.
I think what they have been trying to do the last few days is to highball so that China may let them slip away by “conceding” tons of stuff without actually giving real concessions that takes China any further than status quo ante bellum. That way they can also spin it domestically as a “win” and “compromise”
Sort of like what Trump tried with North Korea.
China shouldn’t be goaded into letting go of US easily to get a fast and shallow “win”. Trump is short on time and bluffing.
Real damage has been dealt to US economy, however America’s morale is largely intact due to decades of brainwashing. But for every Trump official jailed, exposed and testifying, the wall America has put up in front of it’s citizens’ eyes crack more and more. Once this wall has burst, that will be the ideal time to sign a treaty with the US.
Equation
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What exactly are you reading that's freaking you out? Kudlow is known for lying; he's the guy who told everybody that everything is perfect right before the 2008 depression. These people are tasked with making everything look good for Trump's public support. Just so you know, it's not politically viable for them to say that they could not get anything from the Chinese. The only thing they could say is that they are making progress and about to sign a deal. As a matter of fact, that they are saying so before China has agreed is signalling that they have walked back so much that it's almost a given that the Chinese will sign. People ready to haggle hard don't tell the salesman that he's definitely going to buy and people playing hardball don't say they've got a deal before they've got a deal.
No deal can stop or reverse Chinese development and progress. This is useless flailing by the US because it doesn't know how to stop China's development. The only long term way to stay/get ahead of someone is to move yourself faster but the US is stuck trying to derailing other people's races instead of using that energy to run its own.
In the end, whether there are big changes, small changes, or no deal, watch China keep moving ahead faster like it always does. As I said before, a skilled jujitsu master doesn't seek to immobilize his opponent through force, but to make sure that all his moves only get him into worse and worse positions all at his own will/struggles. China will put the US into this position again. There's no place for unsteady nerves raised by every small piece of news; do not let your fear of the past and it "unequal treaties" prevent you from walking into the future.
All good points. Hence why I wanted to point out the questionable nature of the sources first.
But the fact Chinese delegates have to seat there and listen to this unequal terms and insults from US shown China is from the position of weakness. Even If they just try to keep the talk alive to buy more times it shown Xi didn't prepare for this trade war in advance. Had they prepare they wouldn't have to seat down and listen to those BS. China years ago, should purposely scale down the export business, have migrant workers stay at rural area for development which they just roll out such program beginning 2019. Lacking the migrant workers needed for manufacturing, export would diminished years ago and structure would look different today.But the easy export money is too much temptation for the country like opium.
Also US attacked China tech companies left and right yet China couldn't counter punch against US tech companies in return shown China hands being tied , afraid enraging the situation further more and all products being taxed 25%. Again , it shown China not prepared. Some folks argue China is more hoslitic and have more loftier goal, wouldn't engage with US in this type of mudslinging, well that's Ah Q attitude from well known author of Lu Shin, thw novel of a defeatist ,Ah Q trying to comfort himself despite suffered humiliation.
Also US attacked China tech companies left and right yet China couldn't counter punch against US tech companies in return shown China hands being tied , afraid enraging the situation further more and all products being taxed 25%. Again , it shown China not prepared. Some folks argue China is more hoslitic and have more loftier goal, wouldn't engage with US in this type of mudslinging, well that's Ah Q attitude from well known author of Lu Shin, thw novel of a defeatist ,Ah Q trying to comfort himself despite suffered humiliation.
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It's not about buying time, it's about keeping the pressure up. The more time, the more exposed the US regime will be. People in America are already feeling the hurt. Many bankrupt. many bailouts and many jobs lost. Real macro damage, not some civilian kidnapping or cheating private companies one at a time bullshit.
However, as long as their regime keeps up tough rhetoric in public and complete media control, their people are ready to believe anything. Going in guns blazing now will only push US people further into the corner, but the US state doesn't care about damage to the US people unless they rise up in response to it.
But once US govt is in open power struggle, they will be unable to control media or assuage the public. That's when a strike would have real chance to change America. Until then, Xi must keep the situation active, but under control. That means keeping dialogue open.
It's the negotiators' job to sit there and let America take out their frustration on them. Tough shit but they get paid for it. At least they got to laugh Trump in the face.
Last year, China cut the opium of exports to the US. Yet US has been shooting the fentanyl of Chinese technology at record rates. China can clearly step down it's abuse, can the US do the same? To sell to other nations is easy, especially with India's rising middle class. Is it equally easy to make own industries and tech? The verdict is not yet out.
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