Trade War with China

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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
There are almost no Iran science/technology experts.
That is what happens when a country literally spends almost zero on R&D, and has been under sanctions for decades. Just look at the figures for yourself.

Most of the best Russian science/technology experts have already left for the USA or Europe.
Most of Russia's R&D spending is government related ie. military related.
Russia doesn't have a broad-based or deep civilian technology sector.
And China has always been active in employing Russian military tech guys.

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China needs to work more with places like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore, which do have advanced scientific/technology establishments.

Whilst these countries may be US military allies, they do want good relations with China.
They can't escape the fact that they are geographical neighbours with a China that eclipses them from an economic and a military perspective.

And if these countries decide that they do not want a conflict with China, then the nearest US base is Guam, which is some 3000km distant from China.

China needs to work with the rest of east Asia and better integrate their economies. No one is doubting that. Employing Russians has been ongoing and serious efforts started when the Soviet Union broke up. This is exactly what should continue to be practiced and further expanded to involve other strategically important nations like Iran. Why not make efforts to attract those Iranians who work in the US? Why shouldn't there be Iranians working in China? Sure the nation spends pitiful amounts on R&D but it doesn't necessarily mean their citizens cannot develop in China and find ways to add value. If it's a national security threat, how would that work?
 

Dizasta1

Senior Member
Russia and Iran don't have significant tech development capabilities.

Plus China would be tied to Russia and Iran too much. Remember that Russia actually invaded Ukraine and it knew this would cause a crisis. And that China doesn't want to take sides in the mess that is the Middle East

Really? If that's the sort of approach one would take, then it is no wonder people in the East are befuddled by the success of NATO. The fact that when push comes to shove, NATO sets aside such "bullshit" notions and carries on with the job at hand. But I seriously doubt that Chinese leaderships thinks the way you've described to be. Importance of strategic alliances ought to be more appreciated in the East, especially considering the odds that are stacked up against Russia and China, individually. What these countries both need to do is establish an "exact counter weight to NATO," by forging multilateral alliances into a single definitive one. It also requires core allied nations at the center of this alliance, and outer rim nations as partners to the alliance. Russia and China ought to be coordinating their global strategy rather than working off random ones. Where Russia is giving some attention to Venezuela, and China sets up its first overseas military base in some random African country (again emphasis on coordination, not the African counrty). Russia's core ally/allies should be inclusive to China, the same with China's ally/allies. Because however many combat ships China can churn out in a year or whichever game changing strategic weapons Russia comes out with. The absence of core allies would be hard felt in time of war.

Despite America's powerful navy, they lay emphasis on coordinating with its allies in the Pacific, namely Japan, South Korea and Australia. In the Atlantic they have Brits and Europe. It is due to these alliances, America still dominates both Atlantic and Pacific. So all of the large number of modernize combat ships, fighter jets, tanks and subs won't really be fully realized, if China and Russia cannot properly coordinate their strategic goals. The absence of such coordination and planning is likely to allow successful US hegemony in both Pacific and Atlantic.

Time for some to drop out of their "frog in the pond" approach to international strategic relations. This includes the very narrow minded, short sighted and limited scope thinking of Iran. Where Iran's "frog in the pond" mentality has landed itself in the mess it finds itself in today. Iran could benefit immensely if it works with China, Russia and Pakistan. The same goes for the absurd and hopelessly tunnel visioned indians, who seem to live in their own universe where they're the most wise, most benevolent and powerful nation on the planet (certainly not Earth). Both India and Iran are short sighted, misdirected and absurdly centric in their mentality. Whereas if both these countries would manage to get their heads outta their asses, and make a sincere effort of fully implementing their policies in line with that of SCO. They would see how quickly commerce spreading through China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan would benefit them. Even Afghanistan would finally have peace, when countries like Pakistan and India put their differences aside and work together in the SCO alongside Russia and China. And Iran would find itself giving America "the bird" quite often if it proactively participated in the Belt & Road Initiative, instead of being obsessed with that other clown regime called Saudi Arabia. Same goes for South East Asian countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. Who ought to join the SCO, benefiting in trade under one agreement, BRI. If Vietnam can snap out of its closed mentality, it would find South China Sea a place of flourishing commerce benefiting all of South East Asia.

For both Russia and China, SCO spreading through Central Asia and South East Asia, would make it a very powerful alliance which would see phenomenal growth in the entire continent of Asia. Success of SCO would allow South East Asian and Central Asian member states along with Iran, Pakistan and India trade with the continents of Africa and South America.

Strength in numbers, makes for powerful alliances able to stand up to hegemon nations.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russian and Iranian state and corporations will not add much if any value at moment. We're talking about individuals for now. Chinese corporations and state does not add value to the US but Chinese individuals have and continue to despite Chinese economy, R&D spending, and national scientific abilities being very backward in the 60s and 70s but Chinese individuals have added immense value to the US economy and tech industry.

Chinese planners are long term thinkers and they have started with infrastructure and trade projects for now. It is to build towards exactly what I am speaking of. China wants to become more integrated with its neighbours and strategic partners, not more insular. That didn't work well in the past and won't work well for the US if they continue to flip flop, offend, and isolate their allies. Don't think about what immediate value can be added to China alone. Consider what value can be added to all participating nations and the region as a whole. A cooperating region that's partnered in scientific and trade pursuits is harder to fracture by a sinister US agenda than one where China only seeks unilateral gains.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
China just needs to continue doing what they are doing already. With regards to trade with Iran that is solvable with shell companies. Which is how Western companies do it.
What China needs is to increase its level of own industrial production. Namely in semiconductors and software.

Russia and Iran are important in that are energy suppliers to China. Why do you think the Chinese have spent so much money on the Navy? It is mostly to secure their sealanes to keep their trade going now that their economy is at a stage where they are heavily dependent on the import of raw minerals and is still export driven. If for some reason countries like Australia stop supplying China they will have little alternative but to turn to both Russia and Africa to supply them with minerals.

I also think that China should increase the amount of electric vehicles in use in China and let people drive smaller vehicles including motorcycles in the major cities in order to reduce oil consumption. While the oil price is low right now it is important not to become overly reliant on resources like that which have a long and vulnerable supply route. They should also continue changing to electric buses. In addition I think they should revisit their civilian nuclear power program and resume the original construction plans. Otherwise the need to import natural gas may become an issue. Such large structures are vulnerable in case of a military attack. This is particularly the case in the south of the country which is both far from the coal deposits in China and far away from the natural gas pipelines. There is too much LNG transport being done which is not optimal in the long run. Without civilian nuclear there is no good option.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
China just needs to continue doing what they are doing already. With regards to trade with Iran that is solvable with shell companies. Which is how Western companies do it.
What China needs is to increase its level of own industrial production. Namely in semiconductors and software.

Russia and Iran are important in that are energy suppliers to China. Why do you think the Chinese have spent so much money on the Navy? It is mostly to secure their sealanes to keep their trade going now that their economy is at a stage where they are heavily dependent on the import of raw minerals and is still export driven. If for some reason countries like Australia stop supplying China they will have little alternative but to turn to both Russia and Africa to supply them with minerals.

I also think that China should increase the amount of electric vehicles in use in China and let people drive smaller vehicles including motorcycles in the major cities in order to reduce oil consumption. While the oil price is low right now it is important not to become overly reliant on resources like that which have a long and vulnerable supply route. They should also continue changing to electric buses. In addition I think they should revisit their civilian nuclear power program and resume the original construction plans. Otherwise the need to import natural gas may become an issue. Such large structures are vulnerable in case of a military attack. This is particularly the case in the south of the country which is both far from the coal deposits in China and far away from the natural gas pipelines. There is too much LNG transport being done which is not optimal in the long run. Without civilian nuclear there is no good option.

Completely agree, except for China increasing civilian nuclear power plant production.

Wind is already lower cost than coal or nuclear. Solar will be the same situation in a few years.

So why invest more in risky nuclear when wind and solar are better?
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russian and Iranian state and corporations will not add much if any value at moment. We're talking about individuals for now. Chinese corporations and state does not add value to the US but Chinese individuals have and continue to despite Chinese economy, R&D spending, and national scientific abilities being very backward in the 60s and 70s but Chinese individuals have added immense value to the US economy and tech industry.

Chinese planners are long term thinkers and they have started with infrastructure and trade projects for now. It is to build towards exactly what I am speaking of. China wants to become more integrated with its neighbours and strategic partners, not more insular. That didn't work well in the past and won't work well for the US if they continue to flip flop, offend, and isolate their allies. Don't think about what immediate value can be added to China alone. Consider what value can be added to all participating nations and the region as a whole. A cooperating region that's partnered in scientific and trade pursuits is harder to fracture by a sinister US agenda than one where China only seeks unilateral gains.

That is what BRI should be, yes.

But what we shouldn't expect is for Russia and Iran to add too much by themselves.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
In addition I think they should revisit their civilian nuclear power program and resume the original construction plans.

Completely agree, except for China increasing civilian nuclear power plant production.

Current light water reactors are pretty hopeless and China is right to ditch them. However, Gen IV reactors (especially molten salt reactors) seem very promising - promising enough that China should accelerate research efforts into them.
 
now noticed the tweet
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China and the US have made new progress in a vice-ministerial level telephone discussion Friday on matters of common concern, including the balance of trade and protection of intellectual property rights, according to a commerce ministry statement released on Sunday.

DvJPZUOVsAAGuop.jpg
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
now noticed the tweet
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China and the US have made new progress in a vice-ministerial level telephone discussion Friday on matters of common concern, including the balance of trade and protection of intellectual property rights, according to a commerce ministry statement released on Sunday.

DvJPZUOVsAAGuop.jpg

don't see the point of negotiating at this point

dow futures down another 1%, might as well escalate since Trump doesn't want a 1930's depression on his hands
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
The fact that the administration is using "national security" as an excuse for potential tariffs on autos demonstrates that it's all a farce. We all know the auto industry is in trouble and it seems like tariffs is their proposed solution.
 
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