Trade War with China

AndrewS said:

China needs to work more with places like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore, which do have advanced scientific/technology establishments.

Whilst these countries may be US military allies, they do want good relations with China.
They can't escape the fact that they are geographical neighbours with a China that eclipses them from an economic and a military perspective.

And if these countries decide that they do not want a conflict with China, then the nearest US base is Guam, which is some 3000km distant from China.

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These countries are dependent technologically and simple suppliers of the USA, and without aces to the technological background / market / supply chain of USA they are not exist.

So saying that China should cooperate with them more is like saying China needs to cooperate more with USA.

C'mon, how can be the three country designated to contain / guard China be the three frontier in semiconductor technology ?
Triple accident ?

China needs independent capabilities and industries.
China should cut all trade relations with the rest of word, and start to develop on its own, even if it require rethink the whole cultural/political structure.

AndrewS said:

Completely agree, except for China increasing civilian nuclear power plant production.

Wind is already lower cost than coal or nuclear. Solar will be the same situation in a few years.

So why invest more in risky nuclear when wind and solar are better?

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well, wind and solar are not reliable power source, the peak hour of energy usage (in the morning and evening) .... no solar and good luck if there is wind

Unless new energy storage improved 20x (ammonia, maybe), solar and wind wind WILL NOT replace conventional generations (Hydro, gas, coal, oil or nuclear,etc )

antiterror13 said:

well, wind and solar are not reliable power source, the peak hour of energy usage (in the morning and evening) .... no solar and good luck if there is wind

Unless new energy storage improved 20x (ammonia, maybe), solar and wind wind WILL NOT replace conventional generations (Hydro, gas, coal, oil or nuclear,etc )

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Wind is already cost competitive with coal and nuclear without subsidies
Solar is cost competitive in really sunny regions without subsidies.

These technologies are still in the early phases of mass adoption and technology maturity.
That means large improvements in performance and price are still happening.

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We also see grid-scale battery storage operations like in California or in Australia, which are commercially viable without subsidies.
And batteries have already started to replace peaker gas power stations in the USA.

Again, battery technology is still in the early phases of mass adoption and technology maturity.
So we are still seeing significant and sustained improvements.

In 2010, lithium ion batteries cost $1000/KWH
In 2016, the cost had dropped 4x to only $273/KWH
By 2020, Tesla expects battery costs to go down to $100/KWH

At that point, electric cars cars become affordable to buy and cheaper to run than petrol cars in much of the world.

That commercial reality will drive further research into cheaper and better batteries.
It will also drive a much greater scale of production, which again drives down costs.

If you can argue against the facts I've listed above, or the logic that I've outlined, I'm all ears.

That is why Ford and GM are now going all in with electric car development.

antiterror13 said:

well, wind and solar are not reliable power source, the peak hour of energy usage (in the morning and evening) .... no solar and good luck if there is wind

Unless new energy storage improved 20x (ammonia, maybe), solar and wind wind WILL NOT replace conventional generations (Hydro, gas, coal, oil or nuclear,etc )

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Solar has additinal issues during winter months as well.

AndrewS said:

Wind is already cost competitive with coal and nuclear without subsidies
Solar is cost competitive in really sunny regions without subsidies.
.

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Without going into details about the long term viability of wind/energy storage , energy density and so on, there is a more interesting fact about wind energy ( considering that it is a military forum : D).

The windmills are very effective to block the radars to see cruise missiles, the blade end can fly with 300 km/hour, and giving continuously moving , 100+ meters high radar returns.

I think there is a reason why Israel has only one wind-farm,and that is on the Golan heights .

AndrewS said:

Wind is already cost competitive with coal and nuclear without subsidies
Solar is cost competitive in really sunny regions without subsidies.

These technologies are still in the early phases of mass adoption and technology maturity.
That means large improvements in performance and price are still happening.

---

We also see grid-scale battery storage operations like in California or in Australia, which are commercially viable without subsidies.
And batteries have already started to replace peaker gas power stations in the USA.

Again, battery technology is still in the early phases of mass adoption and technology maturity.
So we are still seeing significant and sustained improvements.

In 2010, lithium ion batteries cost $1000/KWH
In 2016, the cost had dropped 4x to only $273/KWH
By 2020, Tesla expects battery costs to go down to $100/KWH

At that point, electric cars cars become affordable to buy and cheaper to run than petrol cars in much of the world.

That commercial reality will drive further research into cheaper and better batteries.
It will also drive a much greater scale of production, which again drives down costs.

If you can argue against the facts I've listed above, or the logic that I've outlined, I'm all ears.

That is why Ford and GM are now going all in with electric car development.

Click to expand...

The main issue within Power Industries is that there is not enough power capacity to charge many electric vehicles a the same time and it would be very extremely costly to build enough capacity to allow us to charge many electric cars at the same time .. I am talking about millions electric cars

There is no problem now (yet) as electric car number is relatively small

In my opinion, the only solution is storage technology that can store excess energy and use it during car charging ... I am talking within a house or wider neighborhood ... but definitely not in the GRID

so the cost of Li Ion is only one of many variables.

If somebody interested, you could read this Transpower (New Zealand National Grid) Whitepaper of Energy Future .. I got involved in some areas so you could ask me anything that I may be able to help. This is really good read!

An obvious solution to electric car power demand is to introduce requirements that smartcars need to be linked into a smart grid system when charging. Then you can just use prices to ration demand.

For the vast majority of commuters, they don’t need their cars charged the moment they plug them in at night.

So with a smart meter system, they can set a time frame (8pm-7am for example) during which they won’t need their cars, and the system automatically pick the most economical time for the car to start charging.

Anyone who needs their cars charged ASAP will pay a higher price, so that option is still available for emergencies so cars won’t be out of commission if you need them suddenly.

This could even help to solve one of the main problems with power generation at present - much lower power demands during the late night.

When you consider the vast differences in demand from daytime peek to deep night lull, having millions of electric cars taking power during the lull could actually mean power stations don’t actually need as much power storeage capabilities as they presently need.

Well making choice has its consequence unfortunately you have to live with your choice
China is officially over American soybeans
By December 24, 2018



China did not import a single US soybean in November, the first time sales to the country have dropped to zero since US president Donald Trump initiated a trade war with the country

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In place of American soybeans, China bought more than five million metric tons of the seeds from Brazil last month, nearly twice the 2.76 million metric tons it purchased from Brazilian farmers a year earlier, , citing data from the General Administration of Customs.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping imposed a 25% tariff on US imports last July in response to those placed on Chinese goods by president Trump. China accounted for roughly 60% of US soybean exports during the USDA’s 2017 marketing year, which runs from September to September, in deals worth more than $12 billion. In 2016, soybean exports to China .

On December 1, president Trump and China agreed not to impose any new tariffs for 90 days. However, the existing tariffs on US imports remain in place. And although Beijing has made of US soybeans since—1.13 million metric tons on December 13 and 1.19 metric tons on December 19—American farmers are looking to buyers in other regions, including Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and other parts of Asia, the Wall Street Journal.

“It’s far from a guarantee it will work,” US Soybean Export Council head Jim Sutter told the newspaper.

China accounts for the of US soybeans since record keeping started in 1977, with the biggest one, for 2,923,000 metric tons, occurring in February 2012. In January, USDA trade counsel Jason Hafemeister , “China offers our best opportunity for major export growth in the future.”

Hafemeister did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The USDA has promised $12 billion in aid to US farmers hurt by the tariffs. Still, using money that could be better spent elsewhere is a short-term fix for an avoidable problem. Farmers “want to trade. They want to sell their products,” (D-ND) over the summer. “They don’t want to just get a check from the government.”

The American soybean market currently has “” to increase exports, according to the US Soybean Export Council. (Read: a glut.) Pakistan is a potential bright spot for US soy exporters in the absence of a viable Chinese market, .

USDA export data is not available during the US government shutdown, which began just after midnight Friday when president Trump did not get funding for his signature border wall.

@plawolf, I have different idea about charging an electric car. While you have refilling stations for fueled cars, why not charging stations for electric cars? the two stations can combine as one. the idea is you make standard battery for all cars and make them removable. if your car is smaller, you'd have less battery. on the other hand, if your car is bigger and have more space, you can house more batteries. all batteries have standard size and capacity. So, when you buy a car, you register it with a charging stations, all charging stations though different brand will accept your registration and provide you the services. when one of your car's batteries run low, you go to a charging station and have your battery changed. the charging station will do the charging. you don't need to spend to much time for charging.

AndrewS said:

---

We also see grid-scale battery storage operations like in California or in Australia, which are commercially viable without subsidies.
And batteries have already started to replace peaker gas power stations in the USA.

Again, battery technology is still in the early phases of mass adoption and technology maturity.
So we are still seeing significant and sustained improvements.

In 2010, lithium ion batteries cost $1000/KWH
In 2016, the cost had dropped 4x to only $273/KWH
By 2020, Tesla expects battery costs to go down to $100/KWH

At that point, electric cars cars become affordable to buy and cheaper to run than petrol cars in much of the world.

That commercial reality will drive further research into cheaper and better batteries.
It will also drive a much greater scale of production, which again drives down costs.

If you can argue against the facts I've listed above, or the logic that I've outlined, I'm all ears.

That is why Ford and GM are now going all in with electric car development.

Click to expand...

South Australia is experiencing an increasing amount of brownouts along side.a increasing reliance pn renewable energy.

SteelBird said:

@plawolf, I have different idea about charging an electric car. While you have refilling stations for fueled cars, why not charging stations for electric cars? the two stations can combine as one. the idea is you make standard battery for all cars and make them removable. if your car is smaller, you'd have less battery. on the other hand, if your car is bigger and have more space, you can house more batteries. all batteries have standard size and capacity. So, when you buy a car, you register it with a charging stations, all charging stations though different brand will accept your registration and provide you the services. when one of your car's batteries run low, you go to a charging station and have your battery changed. the charging station will do the charging. you don't need to spend to much time for charging.

Click to expand...

Interesting idea ..... I do hope that battery tech would be that advanced (some day) that an electric car would only need a battery the size of existing normal car battery

Actually I have a dream that a car in the future would be powered by a micro nuclear plant (fusion) the size of coke can that could power the car forever ... never say impossible though