Trade War with China

AndrewS said:

No, get the facts and then come up with your own analysis, instead of just relying on what someone says. Your result may or may not be congruent with the herd.

There is just way too much false and inaccurate stuff that people publish.

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It is bit more complicated than my time allow t explain it.

But simply, the success of war/business depending on the knowledge,capability and flexibility rather than strategical planning.

Future is unknown, analysis just show the expectation of the herd, compared to that the market can go up or down.
In either direction the most flexible win over the inflexible.

Anlsvrthng said:

It is bit more complicated than my time allow t explain it.

But simply, the success of war/business depending on the knowledge,capability and flexibility rather than strategical planning.

Future is unknown, analysis just show the expectation of the herd, compared to that the market can go up or down.
In either direction the most flexible win over the inflexible.

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Have you actually run multiple businesses?

Saying the future cannot be predicted to some degree is simply a ridiculous statement

AndrewS said:

Have you actually run multiple businesses?

Saying the future cannot be predicted to some degree is simply a ridiculous statement

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Can be predicted by same degree, say I can predict with two sigma certainty that the car market will go up by 4% or go down by 25% and the 2019 number will be between these two numbers.

Saying that it will go up by 2.5% is just simply money making from paper manufacturing.

The system is too complex to be predicted by that degree, and actually the players in the game using up this data to play against other players as well.

It is exactly like saying firm numbers about weapon systems.

The result of the battle depending on the willingness of soldiers to die, the capability and training level of the above soldiers, and finally, and most insignificantly, the capability of the weapons.

Come on guys enough of this back and forth discussion that is going to no where !

Interesting China now lease abandoned land in Russia and they revitalize the land thru their hard work Guess what are they planting here? SOYBEAN!
Russia has acres and acres of land and the Chinese government now encouraging the growing of Soybean guess they never come back to US for soybean
This village near Russia's border with China used to be on the verge of abandonment. But things started to change, after the arrival of two Chinese brothers.

Trump’s Trade War May Create New Auto Jobs. In China.
Image
BMW builds several models of luxury S.U.V.s in its plant in Spartanburg, S.C.CreditCreditDustin Chambers for The New York Times
By


President Trump has said he started a trade war to create jobs in America. But foreign carmakers that employ thousands of workers in the United States are gauging whether tariffs, the main weapon in that war, may compel them to shift jobs to, of all places, China.

Carmakers’ early hopes that congressional Republicans who favor free trade could restrain Mr. Trump have faded. Instead, manufacturers are girding for a protracted period of conflict that will disrupt supply chains and change the companies’ calculations about where to expand and where to cut back.

BMW, the largest exporter of cars from the United States, has already moved some production of its popular X3 sport utility vehicle — once made exclusively in Spartanburg, S.C. — to a factory in Shenyang, China. Analysts expect the German automaker to also move some production of its larger X5.

By shifting production, BMW can avoid China’s punitive tariffs on cars imported from the United States, which have ensnared foreign automakers with large American factories. It could also insulate BMW if Mr. Trump follows through on his threat to tax imported vehicles and parts, a move that would further increase the cost of building cars in the United States and selling them abroad.

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Russia vast land + Chinese technology, capital, hard work = bounty harvest of Soybean
Chinese agricultural investments in Russia's Far East region help save a farm from bankruptcy and transform it into a modern mechanized one.

Stock market goes up and then down asserting win based on stock market is dicey preposition
The western press and pundit declare that Trump won the trade war may be just a bit too early
The Dow has fallen 3.7 percent since Oct. 17. The president has not tweeted about the market since.

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Trump loved celebrating the stock market surge in 2017, but he's been quiet about this year's declines

• President Donald Trump has had to grapple with a more volatile stock market this year, after equities consistently rose during his first year in office.
• The president has stayed silent amid market declines this year, despite cheering stock price increases as evidence that his policies are working.
• While economic growth is strong, Federal Reserve policy and a widening trade conflict with China has led to concerns about damage to the economy.

|
Published 10 Hours AgoCNBC.com

Joshua Roberts | Reuters
President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, October 17, 2018.
As stock markets steadily climbed during his first year in office, President cheered the rise at every turn.

But the president has stayed silent as he watched this year's gains disappear in recent days.

Good financial market and economic news greeted Trump after his inauguration in January 2017. Hopes about his push to slash regulations and chop corporate tax rates unlocking economic growth helped to drive stock market records. The president gleefully claimed rising stocks as evidence of his success.

Stock Market had another good day but, now that the Tax Cut Bill has passed, we have tremendous upward potential. Dow just short of 25,000, a number that few thought would be possible this soon into my administration. Also, unemployment went down to 4.1%. Only getting better!

Now, he has to grapple with an unknown: a stock market that has recently slipped, partly due to the president's own policies. While market watchers . Interest rate hikes from a Federal Reserve chairman the president appointed — and routinely criticizes — along with a widening trade war with China have spooked investors.

The recent stock losses may prove short-lived. The market pain has so far not hurt Trump's approval rating ahead of the critical Nov. 6 midterm elections, though booming equities last year did little to help Americans' views of the president. Still, the stock struggles at least temporarily erase one of the factors the president pointed to as evidence of success throughout his first year.

Stocks surged from Jan. 23, 2017, the first trading day after Trump's inauguration, until the end of last year. The , and climbed about 25 percent, 18 percent and 24 percent, respectively, during that time, according to FactSet data.



This year has gone much differently for markets. The Dow and S&P have dipped 0.1 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively, this year. Only the Nasdaq has stayed positive, rising 3.8 percent.



As of Friday's close, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq had dropped 6.7 percent, 8.8 percent and 10.9 percent in October, respectively.

In a statement Wednesday, White House spokeswoman Lindsay Walters shrugged off the stock market troubles, saying "the fundamentals and future of the U.S. economy remain incredibly strong." She added that "we remain focused on the long-term outlook of the U.S. economy."

A tale of two different years
The investing community largely had high hopes for what Trump would do for American businesses during his first year in office. The strong stock market performance continued a steady climb that started during the Obama administration, following the 2008 financial crisis.

Stock markets cheered the Trump administration's economic policy despite comments and actions that mobilized large swaths of the country against the president. His restrictions on travel for people from several Muslim-majority countries, the GOP plan to repeal the Affordable Care Act and his remarks equating white nationalists with protesters demonstrating against them in Charlottesville, Va., all contributed to a poor approval rating.


Days after Trump took office, he aiming to roll back regulations and stop the creation of new rules. He has since taken various other steps to scale back regulations, which Republicans and the business community have largely cheered.

Anticipation of tax cuts, and subsequently stronger corporate earnings, boosted stocks throughout 2017. In December, Republicans for corporations and pass-through businesses and temporarily trim rates for most individuals. Trump repeatedly contended the law would boost job and GDP growth — and help stocks in the process.

All signs are that business is looking really good for next year, only to be helped further by our Tax Cut Bill. Will be a great year for Companies and JOBS! Stock Market is poised for another year of SUCCESS!

The script has flipped this year. Stock markets endured a rough February, driven in part by .

Shortly after that, Trump started his policy of imposing tariffs on imports in order to pressure allies into striking new trade deals. He first put duties on steel and aluminum. Then, Washington and Beijing began imposing an escalating series of tariffs, with the Trump administration most recently slapping 10 percent duties on $200 billion in Chinese goods last month. Those rise to 25 percent at the end of the year, and Trump is considering another $267 billion in tariffs.

The trade conflict has led to concerns about a widening economic war that could raise costs for businesses and consumers and damage economic growth. Trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have stalled. The Trump administration before talks start again, which complicates any effort to make progress on trade.

As markets have reacted poorly to the Fed's three interest rate increases this year, the president has increasingly lashed out at the politically independent central bank. In , he said he was "very unhappy with the Fed because [President Barack] Obama had zero interest rates."

Trump added that he "maybe" regrets appointing Fed Chair Jerome Powell to the post.

Trump's top economic advisor, for his part, drove the market declines more than concerns about slowing global economic growth and rising interest rates. On Tuesday, National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow told reporters that "I think the stock market is worried that Congress will change and will overturn these pro-growth policies."

Many market experts believe October's carnage will be short-lived. Trump will likely start talking up the stock market again when the pain ends.

Take his last tweet cheering on the stock market. It came on Oct. 16, when following a week of carnage.

First, he noted that the Dow rose 548 points.


The next day, Trump referenced what he said was a quote from "Fox & Friends," a morning TV show the president frequently watches that covers him favorably. "Network News gave Zero coverage to the Big Day the Stock Market had yesterday," he wrote, apparently quoting an unidentified speaker.

The Dow has fallen 3.7 percent since Oct. 17. The president has not tweeted about the market since.

Hendrik_2000 said:

Stock market goes up and then down asserting win based on stock market is dicey preposition
The western press and pundit declare that Trump won the trade war may be just a bit too early
The Dow has fallen 3.7 percent since Oct. 17. The president has not tweeted about the market since.

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Of course he's not gonna tweet about that. What's he gonna tweet, F words? LOL

Just a few years ago, this would be unthinkable. Corporate media doesn't want to cover it because of its implications.

Yes, China and Japan has agreed to a currency swap. This is bad news for the US dollar in the long run as more and more such deals are made.



As for falling stock markets, the blood bath not expected to end. The US economic fundamentals are not strong. Mortgage rates are falling down, housing is down, car sales are down. Those are strong indicators of consumer spending. Oh yes, Amazon is down too, which is another indication of consumer spending.

Well history repeat itself Technical and industrial embargo is now in force.Rh threw a spanner on Chinese ambition in semiconductor China has no choice but to rely on itself In the long run it is better that way via Emperor

OCTOBER 30, 2018 / 1:14 AM / UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
U.S. restricts exports to Chinese semiconductor firm Fujian Jinhua
David Lawder
5 MIN READ

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s administration took action on Monday to cut off a Chinese state-backed chipmaker from U.S. suppliers amid allegations the firm stole intellectual property from U.S. semiconductor company Micron Technology Inc (MU.O).

The Commerce Department said it had put Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit Co Ltd on a list of entities that cannot purchase components, software and technology goods from U.S. firms.

The administration is concerned the Chinese firm could flood the market with cheap chips that are also made by U.S. companies that supply the U.S. military. If the U.S. chipmakers go out of business, the military would lose a supplier for an item that must come from the United States.

Trade experts said the Trump administration’s move may be an unprecedented effort to use a legal tool known for punishing foreign companies that send U.S.-origin goods to sanctioned countries such as Iran to instead protect the economic viability of a U.S. firm.

The move escalated what until now had been a business dispute into the realm of an international trade conflict between the United States and China. The Commerce Department spokesman said the move was “based on the regulatory standard.”

The action against Fujian Jinhua is likely to ignite new tensions between Beijing and Washington since the company is at the heart of the “Made in China 2025” program to develop new high-technology industries.

The world’s top two economies are already waging a tariff war over their trade disputes, with U.S. duties in place on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods and Chinese duties on $110 billion of U.S. goods.

Fujian Jinhua makes so-called DRAM, the memory chips that make computers, phones and other devices run more quickly and smoothly.

Micron, a maker of memory chips with factories in Virginia and Utah, has accused Fujian Jinhua and Taiwanese partner United Microelectronics Corp (2303.TW) of stealing its chip designs in a lawsuit in California. In turn, the companies countersued Micron in China, where courts sided with them and banned some of Micron’s chips in China.

“When a foreign company engages in activity contrary to our national security interests, we will take strong action to protect our national security,” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a statement.

A Commerce Department spokesman said the agency would review any appeal by Fujian Jinhua.

‘ENTITY LIST’
The action is similar to a Commerce Department move that nearly put Chinese telecommunications equipment company ZTE Corp (000063.SZ) out of business earlier this year by cutting it off from U.S. suppliers.

Linley Gwennap, a chip expert and president of the Linley Group, said Fujian Jinhua was a relatively new company building DRAM as part of China’s larger plan to become self-sufficient at making such chips.

He said suppliers such as Applied Materials Inc (AMAT.O), Lam Research Corp (LRCX.O) and KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC.O) were likely supplying equipment to Fujian Jinhua.

“It’s pretty much impossible to build a leading-edge fab (semiconductor plant) without buying equipment from these American companies,” Gwennap said.

On an earnings call on Monday, KLA-Tencor Chief Executive Rick Wallace said the company expected no financial impact in 2018 or 2019 from the move.

Neither of the other companies that Gwennap named immediately returned a request for comment.

The use of the “entity list” - which governs what companies U.S. firms can do business with - to protect the economic viability of a U.S. industry appears to be unprecedented, said Washington trade lawyer Douglas Jacobson.

“This appears to be a dramatic expansion of the use of the entity list for economic purposes,” he said, explaining that the entity list had traditionally been used to prevent imminent violations of U.S. export control laws.