Trade War with China

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Anlsvrthng

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AssassinsMace said:
No need for an article to make that conclusion. Ever since Trump became a public figure, he's had a problem with Asians. The first one he hated were the Japanese. Steve Bannon has touted Trump as seeing China as a problem for over 30 years. No, his first target was the Japanese during that time where Americans saw Japan as a worse enemy than the Soviet Union. So unless Bannon was just lumping all Asians ethnicities together, he's a liar. The same things people were complaining about the Japanese back then are still happening today. The targets have just changed accordingly to the times. Trump on the other hand doesn't forget his grudges.

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He has the best relation with NK in written history .
 
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AndrewS

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AssassinsMace said:
No need for an article to make that conclusion. Ever since Trump became a public figure, he's had a problem with Asians. The first one he hated were the Japanese. Steve Bannon has touted Trump as seeing China as a problem for over 30 years. No, his first target was the Japanese during that time where Americans saw Japan as a worse enemy than the Soviet Union. So unless Bannon was just lumping all Asians ethnicities together, he's a liar. The same things people were complaining about the Japanese back then are still happening today. The targets have just changed accordingly to the times. Trump on the other hand doesn't forget his grudges.

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By all accounts, Trump has an even bigger problem with blacks (and respecting women?)
 
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tidalwave

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According to Bannon, it will takes about 5 years to defeat China economically by empty out industries in China through outsourcing to SEA. India. A number of Japanese and Taiwanese companies have left and also more considering.

China could counter US companies that selling in China but didn't bother to setup manufacturing or very little there. Majority of US Semiconductor companies selling in China only have sales office like Xilinx, analog device. Skyworth, Micron, microchip. China needs to tariff them heavily or even using anti monopoly rules.
Intel , Qualcomm have setup some manufacturing and partnership in China and China should encourage them to setup more for Chinese market.
 
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AndrewS

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The Unlikely, Obvious Solution to the Trade War
New York Times

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Enter Europe: It is uniquely positioned to lead such reforms thanks to its longstanding strategic alliance with the United States, its growing economic connections with China and its steadfast support for the W.T.O.

Economic links between the United States and China are pervasive, but those between Europe and China are deeper. The total of Europe’s investment flows to China were more than twice those of the United States between 2005 and 2016, according to United Nations agencies.

Like the United States, Europe is concerned about some of China’s restrictive practices — for example, the fact that China limits foreign investment in its financial services, energy and communications sectors. But unlike the United States, the European Union isn’t caught up in a great-power rivalry with China, and it is less concerned about the security implications of, say, China’s efforts to develop semiconductors and aircraft.

So far, Europe’s leaders had been too preoccupied with their respective domestic concerns — Brexit, rising populist sentiments — to focus on reforming the global trading system. But America’s latest tariffs on China will hurt Europe, too, given Europe’s links with the Chinese economy. And just last week, the European Commission laid out a proposal for reforming the W.T.O., including new rules to deal with forced technology transfers and the rise of e-commerce.

If Europe develops a common understanding with China on how to revamp the organization, the option will become more difficult for the United States to ignore.

The Trump administration would, of course, need to change its current position. But shifting political and economic circumstances may give it a reason to. Whereas the vast majority of Republican respondents in a recent survey by the polling firm SurveyMonkey said they supported tariffs, many Republican political leaders do not. A victory by the Democrats, who mostly oppose tariffs, in the midterm elections could change the dynamics of the debate.

The White House could also point to any thorough overhaul of the W.T.O. as a victory, and an admission on China’s part that the United States’ concerns were legitimate. It could then address any specific issues that remained in a bilateral investment treaty, which the U.S.-China Business Council has been advocating.

As the costs of this trade war add up in the United States, too, more rational minds may prevail in Washington. And they will see that the way out of the impasse runs through the W.T.O., whether Mr. Trump likes it or not.
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Realistically, it is more likely that China would have to lead on WTO reform, given how fractured Europe is.
But if China can get the EU, Japan and Korea all on board, it would be even more difficult for the USA/Trump to ignore it.

Even if Trump implements 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports, China will still be the world's largest trading nation, and which is still growing fast.
So it is in China's interests to keep the WTO alive.

The question is whether China can or wants to lead a global trading order.
 
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AndrewS

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tidalwave said:
According to Bannon, it will takes about 5 years to defeat China economically by empty out industries in China through outsourcing to SEA. India. A number of Japanese and Taiwanese companies have left and also more considering.

China could counter US companies that selling in China but didn't bother to setup manufacturing or very little there. Majority of US Semiconductor companies selling in China only have sales office like Xilinx, analog device. Skyworth, Micron, microchip. China needs to tariff them heavily or even using anti monopoly rules.
Intel , Qualcomm have setup some manufacturing and partnership in China and China should encourage them to setup more for Chinese market.
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Bannon is just deluded.

As per the NSF, China will be spending more on technology R&D than the USA next year.
Plus China just became bigger consumer retail market than the USA as well, which will support those Chinese hi-tech products and also the next phase of Chinese growth beyond the middle-income trap.
 
AssassinsMace

AssassinsMace

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AndrewS said:
By all accounts, Trump has an even bigger problem with blacks (and respecting women?)
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I'm not arguing that. His public persona started with his anti-Japanese stance and he was a Democrat and they loved him. He was also popular among African-Americans. It was not until he started showing his true colors and expressing publicly his further prejudices was when people started criticizing him. So if Samurai Blue thinks Trump has special place for the Japanese in his heart, he's mistaken just like the Democrats who loved him ignoring his prejudices just as along as he didn't target groups that they cared about. Japan is now open to RCEP. TPP wasn't enough? 40% of the world economy wasn't secure enough? The EU, Canada, and Mexico all need the China card to play Trump. Trump goes after the US's closest allies. What's Japan think it has different? They've got nothing but bowing down to Trump. Being an ally of the US isn't enough. TPP isn't enough. A free trade agreement with the EU isn't enough. So now they're open to RCEP.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

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tidalwave said:
I notice you like get into those philosophical or logical debate try to demonstrate you are a smart guy in the liberal art area. maybe you will be next great Socrates. But that's not my cup of tea.
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LOL Wanna talk about my area of expertise? We have to debate genetics. That is my degree and even so, if China made a research decision pertaining to genetics that I did not agree with, I would assume that with all the experts in China, they made that decision based on information that I don't know and based on experts with more experience than I have. I would never arrive at the childishly arrogant conclusion that Xi Jingping doesn't know jack about genetics so he needs to listen to an expert like me LOL.

Anyway, if genetics isn't the topic, I'm going to just be using logic and philosophy as you see here. If philosophy and logic aren't your cup of tea, then you can't be a good adviser to the government because that means you will always be confined to your limited knowledge rather than analyze the big picture.

tidalwave said:
So, I am only going to respond to the first one.
1)China realizes Semiconductor is important but it doesn't realize it's US Semiconductor Association lead by John Neuffer doing alot complaining to lawmakers in Washington is the real root cause of of current demand in the trade war. China going after farmers shows it thinks Trump is the reason. Trump is just a business man , a surplus/deficit guy , he doesnt give a crap about intellectual rights and state capitalism . Now he was told what to do by his advisors.
Had China realizes the root cause, it would strike hard at US Semiconductor firms in China to get even and it didn't do much to those companies shows it probably doesn't know the root cause. How to punish those companies is also an art. I dont see China has expertise in that area.

Doesn't know the root cause they most likely will miscalculate.
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REEEEEAAALLLLYYYY LOLOL You think you have better intel than the CCP? They don't REALIZE that it's John Neuffer? LOLOL You really comically overestimate yourself.

1. What evidence do you have that it is John Neuffer? Don't provide stories of how you imagine things went; provide actual evidence.
2. How do you assume that the CCP doesn't know that? In chess, when you leave one of your pieces exposed and your opponent does not immediately take it, does that mean he's blind, or could he have a plan that you don't understand? In this case, your view can see only one pawn while he can see the entire board. That's what happens when you compare narrow field-acquired knowledge against the intel of a national advisory team.
3. You're talking like it's really easy to strike at American semiconductor manufacturers. This makes me think you're not as knowledgeable about them as you claim to be. ZTE underwent that humilating trial for its own survival because of American semiconductors. Do you think that all the engineers at ZTE know less than you... or maybe you don't know as much as you think?
4. Go tell the CCP it's John Neuffer LOLOL See if they thank you for leading them in the right direction or they tell you to get out and they don't need your help on obvious things. Really, if you think you have information that they need, you should give it to them. And then the cherry on top is testing whether you were right... or you know wayyyy less than you think you do. Why wouldn't you do it?
 
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