The War in the Ukraine

A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
anzha said:
Just curious. Have you? You are implying you have. What is your experience with Ukrainian refugees? Helping family? Friends? Strangers who desperately need help?
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In the UK facebook there are a number of groups that were set up to help the Ukrainian "refugees". Now they're complaining about how bad they are.

tankphobia said:
There's literally an example of this happening to Russia at the beginning of SMO because they grossly underestimated Ukranian resistance, leading their retreat from Kiev after Ukranian defenses refused to buckle.
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There was no meaningful resistance to Russian forces around Kiev. The Russian army parked outside Kiev and did nothing. The Russians expected the Ukrainians to just surrender in their presence.

They went back when they realised they lacked the will to assault and destroy Kiev, can't hurt precious Ukrainians.
 
sheogorath

sheogorath

Colonel
Registered Member
obj 705A said:
And waiting for the west to run out of weapons to send to Ukraine makes absolutely no sense, what is the collective size of western MIC vs that of Russia! Pretty sure it's bigger.
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Is it?. Their output seems bad if not worse in many aspects even when combined.

Case in point the Poland Leopard 2 deal. They went with the M1 in part because Germany couldnt provide the Leopard 2A7 in the time frame and quantities they wanted.

Only the US could, and this will be used tanks as the M1 is only being built in Egypt, not the US.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
tankphobia said:
Like I said, until there is a sustained period of -10C or lower temperatures, it's going to be more of a mild inconvenience since most of the mentioned infrastructure will not be in direct contact with the environment but rather insulated/underground. It will take a long time/ never for the water to freeze if it keeps hovering around these temperatures due to the innate constant ground temperature. Also I would expect homes to be insulated enough that a few extra layer of clothes to retain enough heat for it to be bearable. Blackouts are also not a constant feature, if there's intermittent power your proposed scenario won't occur.

Ultimately Ukraine is not that far north, winters don't get all that cold in the Western side in comparison to the eastern parts which Russia occupies.
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We'll see. Based on some medical sources, temperature below 0 C is unsafe for prolonged exposure.

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Near freezing is sufficient to inflict cold stress.

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And bombing will expose more pipelines in buildings to the wind, as well as directly break pipelines.
 
Phead128

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
BlackWindMnt said:
Can't they just choke out or starve Kharkiv, encircle the city instead of go into the city and needing to clean up the Ukrainian forces.
Just starve and choke the Ukrainian soldiers to a certain point then offer a humanitarian corridor out of the city like they did multiple times in Syria.
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On paper, Russia can theoretically can conquer Ukraine according to the ORBAT and manpower superiority.

In reality, Russia is deeply limited by political rules of engagement. It's political expediency to launch of a war of limited scope/objectives and refrain (until now) hitting infrastructure/civilian targets. When you are fighting with one-arm tied behind your back...you get limited results like this.

obj 705A said:
You are talking about some 7D chess move in which Russia does nothing but retreat on the ground and then after unilaterally declaring an end to the war the west will fall over and collapse and the war will be won.

Western aid to Ukraine will continue as long as there is Ukrainian land under Russian occupation and as long as Ukraine's border with NATO is open.

Let me put it this way, there is a better chance that Palestine will be liberated tomorrow than there is a chance that the west will ever stop aid to Ukraine as long as there is land to be taken.
And waiting for the west to run out of weapons to send to Ukraine makes absolutely no sense, what is the collective size of western MIC vs that of Russia! Pretty sure it's bigger.
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Yes NATO aid will continue, but @plawolf's point is the magnitude of aid will be attenuated or reduced commensurate with the intensity of war, to the extent that Ukraine major combat offensive operation is untenable, ergo a stalemate where Ukraine is unable to mount an offense, and Russia signalling the maximum extent of territorial expansion.

Yes, a unilateral declared end is one-sided, and yes, Ukraine can continue their offensive, but at best it would a stalemate along the Donestk-Zapo-Kherson-Luhansk boundary with no significant movement with reduced NATO support. This would be a bet on Europe reducing it's aid to Ukraine due to economics, inflation, and energy pressures, and end of S.M.O. impetus to give a blank check. It would be a risk-benefit analysis by Europe on giving an extra $66B per year forever just to grab Donbass, or just force Ukraine to negotiate a settlement.

Personally, Europe might be dumb enough to offer a blank check to Ukraine forever...they could be just that a stupid, at cost of hyperinflation, collapse of industry, recession, and their own people freezing to death. Their idiocy is limitless.
 
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A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
anzha said:
Facebook? Really?

There was a wonderful shirt when I was younger in the early 90s that encapsulates how people should treat the online world that said: on the internet, no one knows you're a dog.

That said, I don't doubt there are problems. The UK and Ukraine have very, very different cultures.

However, I was asking if the poster had actual experience with the refugees or was the individual only reading things online.

We may be flirting with being OT. I'll let the mods decide.
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They may be posting on facebook but they are real people who offered accommodation to Ukrainians when the war started before things turned sour.
FairAndUnbiased said:
We'll see. Based on some medical sources, temperature below 0 C is unsafe for prolonged exposure.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Near freezing is sufficient to inflict cold stress.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

And bombing will expose more pipelines in buildings to the wind, as well as directly break pipelines.
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People live in subzero temperatures in many parts of the world. Appropriate winter clothing negates low temperature very effectively.

Western media seem to be claiming that winter will result in a cessation of hostilities. I'm not sure where they are getting this from.

The ground freezes up and tanks can operate fine again. In WW2 there were a number of big advances that occurred over winter.
 
A

anzha

Captain
Registered Member
Abominable said:
They may be posting on facebook but they are real people who offered accommodation to Ukrainians when the war started before things turned sour.
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As for the FB posts, as I said, I am not surprised at the problems. Drop people into a wildly different culture when they have no common or similar language, have no prospects for jobs, quite possibly - even probably - have been traumatized and have lost everything, problems are almost guaranteed to happen. Ukrainians are resilient people, but not all of them can handle what is happening. Not all of them are good people: is there any people who are 100% good?

That said, FB is rife with bots, just like twitter. Its demographics tend to the grumpy generations these days, too.

Treat as dubious until you have seen for yourself. Even then, be careful of confirmation bias with small samples.

I fail at times myself. No one is perfect.

Again, I was asking whether whether the poster had first hand experience.
 
Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
BukM3 reinforcements coming

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US plans to buy 100,000 rounds of artillery ammo from South Korea for Ukraine​


In a recent briefing, Ukraine's defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, announced that his country had managed to re-establish the production of 122 and 152 mm artillery shells.

“I hope that within a few months they will realistically increase their volumes. The commitment already exists. We have already tested their products, they work and will work on the battlefield,” said the Ukrainian Defense Minister. Production is being done by the Ukrainian company Ukroboronprom.
 
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R

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
On paper, Russia can theoretically can conquer Ukraine according to the ORBAT and manpower superiority.

In reality, Russia is deeply limited by political rules of engagement. It's political expediency to launch of a war of limited scope/objectives and refrain (until now) hitting infrastructure/civilian targets. When you are fighting with one-arm tied behind your back...you get limited results like this.


Yes NATO aid will continue, but @plawolf's point is the magnitude of aid will be attenuated or reduced commensurate with the intensity of war, to the extent that Ukraine major combat offensive operation is untenable, ergo a stalemate where Ukraine is unable to mount an offense, and Russia signalling the maximum extent of territorial expansion.

Yes, a unilateral declared end is one-sided, and yes, Ukraine can continue their offensive, but at best it would a stalemate along the Donestk-Zapo-Kherson-Luhansk boundary with no significant movement with reduced NATO support. This would be a bet on Europe reducing it's aid to Ukraine due to economics, inflation, and energy pressures, and end of S.M.O. impetus to give a blank check. It would be a risk-benefit analysis by Europe on giving an extra $66B per year forever just to grab Donbass, or just force Ukraine to negotiate a settlement.

Personally, Europe might be dumb enough to offer a blank check to Ukraine forever...they could be just that a stupid, at cost of hyperinflation, collapse of industry, recession, and their own people freezing to death. Their idiocy is limitless.
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Europe is not a collective with autonomy to look after its own interests. The U.S. still has troops station there. If you think we are just there to protect the Europeans from the Russians, I have a bridge to sell you. You cannot get any clearer signal than Baerbeck saying openly that no matter what the Germany voters think, she and Germany will support Ukraine. This is someone elected by her people to a position of power, presumably to serve the German people.

Russia is settling in for a protracted siege that could last for years. Since they no longer have the option to fight West of the Dnipro, it seems they would want to destroy the economy in that region. The electrical equipment bombardment is the beginning of this work to destroy the economy.

I don't see the prospect of a Minsk III from Russia. What would be the point? Russia would be at a place to stop if they are able to push to the Dnipro and take a couple of cities along the river. After that, it would be a low intensity war where Russia will keep the Ukrainian economy destroyed for years. The West will have to support these people for years and take large number of refugees for years to come.
 
G

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Sinnavuuty said:
The unique MiG-31BM with its very long-range air-to-air missiles is a serious menace to Ukrainian aircraft.
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Yet if you believe some of the people here the MiG-31BM could only shoot down large and/or slow AWACS, bombers, cruise missiles. So much for that. Told ya. The R-37M is not the R-33 missile. It has a built-in radar for terminal guidance. And even the R-33 missile was way more recent than the US Phoenix missile and the Iranians shot down supersonic aircraft with the Phoenix several times in the Iran-Iraq war.

Sheleah said:
Russia lost in Kherson the largest city and the only provincial capital it occupied.
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Kherson was not the largest city they got. Kherson had a population of 283,649. Mariupol had 431,859. But yes it was important as it was a provincial capital.
 
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