I don't call hyper inflation, rolling and permanent blackouts, constant fuel and food shortages, non functioning railroad systems except for diesel, and a significant depopulation to refugees, untouched. Many factories have been destroyed too.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
I don't call hyper inflation, rolling and permanent blackouts, constant fuel and food shortages, non functioning railroad systems except for diesel, and a significant depopulation to refugees, untouched. Many factories have been destroyed too.
Polish military getting more involved and taking over. According to this blog.
Polish mercenaries will defend Vuhledar due to losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: details
By the evening of November 9, the military personnel of the Kaskad OBTF and the 155th marine brigades of the Pacific Fleet broke through the defenses of the 72nd and 68th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the strongholds between Pavlovka and Vugledar.
At the same time, in the Nikolsky and Pavlovsky dachas, as well as behind the waste heaps of the Yuzhnodonbasskaya No. 1 mine in the north of Vugledar, the artillery of the RF Armed Forces destroyed the positions of 120-mm mortars of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, depriving the garrison of the city of operational cover. The northern section of the Ugledar-Konstantinovka highway was also taken under fire control.
After establishing control over Pavlovka, the RF Armed Forces, using the Leer-3 electronic warfare, suppressed drones and communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Vugledar. As soon as the control of the enemy troops was disrupted, T-80BV tanks and large-caliber artillery joined the combat work on the southern approaches.
By the evening of November 11, the first strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Ugledar were destroyed by the fire of self-propelled guns "Msta-S" and "Acacia" of 152 mm caliber. With two Krasnopol shells, the artillery destroyed the positions of the French Milan-2T anti-tank systems behind the banks of the Kashlagach River.
According to radio interception, the 72nd separate mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered the largest losses in Ugledar. Over the past two days, a self-propelled artillery battalion and a reconnaissance company have come under fire three times in the unit. As of the evening of November 11, there were at least 30 killed and the same number of wounded in the formation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
As early as November 10, due to the losses of the 72nd Motorized Brigade, for help from n. Novosyolka village (50 km west of Ugledar) units of the 108th Territorial Defense Brigade were supposed to arrive. However, when loading people and equipment, an artillery strike was inflicted on the accumulation of Ukrainian troops.
According to radio interception, the losses of the 128th Territorial Defense Brigade are forcing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to move parts of the 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade near Vugledar from Pokrovsk (70 km to the north). The operational management of the formation according to NATO standards is carried out by former and current servicemen of the Polish army.
According to the Military Chronicle, they can be sent to the area of Prechistovka and Zolotoy Niva (20 km west of Vugledar) along with the remnants of the defeated 68th Jaeger Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to the Military Chronicle, in this area the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is afraid of a breakthrough by units of the 40th Separate Marine Brigade of the RF Armed Forces, capable of creating conditions for the operational encirclement of Ugledar from the west.
Polish mercenaries will defend Vuhledar due to losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: details
By the evening of November 9, the military personnel of the Kaskad OBTF and the 155th marine brigades of the Pacific Fleet broke through the defenses of the 72nd and 68th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the strongholds between Pavlovka and Vugledar.
At the same time, in the Nikolsky and Pavlovsky dachas, as well as behind the waste heaps of the Yuzhnodonbasskaya No. 1 mine in the north of Vugledar, the artillery of the RF Armed Forces destroyed the positions of 120-mm mortars of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, depriving the garrison of the city of operational cover. The northern section of the Ugledar-Konstantinovka highway was also taken under fire control.
After establishing control over Pavlovka, the RF Armed Forces, using the Leer-3 electronic warfare, suppressed drones and communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Vugledar. As soon as the control of the enemy troops was disrupted, T-80BV tanks and large-caliber artillery joined the combat work on the southern approaches.
By the evening of November 11, the first strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Ugledar were destroyed by the fire of self-propelled guns "Msta-S" and "Acacia" of 152 mm caliber. With two Krasnopol shells, the artillery destroyed the positions of the French Milan-2T anti-tank systems behind the banks of the Kashlagach River.
According to radio interception, the 72nd separate mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered the largest losses in Ugledar. Over the past two days, a self-propelled artillery battalion and a reconnaissance company have come under fire three times in the unit. As of the evening of November 11, there were at least 30 killed and the same number of wounded in the formation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
As early as November 10, due to the losses of the 72nd Motorized Brigade, for help from n. Novosyolka village (50 km west of Ugledar) units of the 108th Territorial Defense Brigade were supposed to arrive. However, when loading people and equipment, an artillery strike was inflicted on the accumulation of Ukrainian troops.
According to radio interception, the losses of the 128th Territorial Defense Brigade are forcing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to move parts of the 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade near Vugledar from Pokrovsk (70 km to the north). The operational management of the formation according to NATO standards is carried out by former and current servicemen of the Polish army.
According to the Military Chronicle, they can be sent to the area of Prechistovka and Zolotoy Niva (20 km west of Vugledar) along with the remnants of the defeated 68th Jaeger Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to the Military Chronicle, in this area the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is afraid of a breakthrough by units of the 40th Separate Marine Brigade of the RF Armed Forces, capable of creating conditions for the operational encirclement of Ugledar from the west.
Ukraine's not going to run out of men. Here are some comparisons with other wars.
Per my calculations, it would take 7+ years for Ukraine to reach North Vietnam military deaths in the Vietnam War and 13+ years to reach French military deaths in WWI.
With this rate of casualties, Ukraine can fight for years or decades.
| Population | Military Deaths | |
| France | 39.6 million () | |
| North Vietnam | 18.7 million () | |
| Ukraine | 37.3 million () | 61,000 (September, ) |
Per my calculations, it would take 7+ years for Ukraine to reach North Vietnam military deaths in the Vietnam War and 13+ years to reach French military deaths in WWI.
With this rate of casualties, Ukraine can fight for years or decades.
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You need men to run the rest of the economy. Lose enough men and production of services and goods will nose dive, turning to you to a Weimar Republic. North Vietnam was much more robust to begin with since it only had an agrarian and sustenance economy, not a modern industrial one that is more frail and more pressure points to break. Most of all, the people are different. The North Vietnamese are people that won't go loco if their power and their internet are cut off.
So the taking of Kherson by Ukraine just freed up at least 60k troops which will be redeployed soon not to mention 50k+ Ukrainian troops training all over Europe I think the next offensive will be here.
As for when... maybe towards the end of next month but when it happens Ukraine will succeed and will cut off Crimea from the east and will also cutoff water to Crimea. I think the only thing we'll see in the coming weeks is a buffer across Derp River from Kherson before Ukraine forces in Zapo attack.
When Ukraine succeeds cutting off Crimea from the east Crimea will be dependent for its survival on the blown up bridge and Russian ferry boats and I don't think the bridge is going to be fixed I think Ukraine already has a set date to hit it again likely when the new span is almost finished.
You may now laugh away at mein post.
As for when... maybe towards the end of next month but when it happens Ukraine will succeed and will cut off Crimea from the east and will also cutoff water to Crimea. I think the only thing we'll see in the coming weeks is a buffer across Derp River from Kherson before Ukraine forces in Zapo attack.
When Ukraine succeeds cutting off Crimea from the east Crimea will be dependent for its survival on the blown up bridge and Russian ferry boats and I don't think the bridge is going to be fixed I think Ukraine already has a set date to hit it again likely when the new span is almost finished.
You may now laugh away at mein post.
I am not going to laugh, but there are better targets and routes to take. The Dniepr is quite wide and you'd be doing quite a crossing under artillery fire. It would be better to attack south through Zaporizhzhia oblast, cut the overland lines from Russia to Crimea, secure the border, blow up the bridge completely this time, and then make for Crimea.
Svatove and Staroblisk are next, IMO. It gives the best bang for the buck and lives. An offensive into Lugansk threatens the frontlines in the Donbas and could force more retreats due to threat of envelopment and logistics. Those rail lines running south provide supplies in a big way and taking them forces the Russians to route all the way around through Lugansk (the city) or through the DNR. Big win.
If the Ukrainians can do it.
Yes where the map shows the arrows is where I believe the next offensive will be. We've been hearing about massing of Ukrainian troops in Zapo for a while now and now that Kherson front is over Ukraine has at least 60k troops freed up to join a Zapo offensive.
Here's the thing... what is more important to Russia Crimea or Donbas region? If Ukraine launches an offensive from Zapo to cut off Crimea and is succeeding it is very likely Russia may pull its forces from Donbas/Donetsk area and try to prevent Ukraine from reaching the sea near Mariupol. Russia can't move its forces and heavy equipment to Crimea by Crimean bridge they are going to send them south to prevent cutting off Crimea and if Russian forces do that you may see another Izyum scenario where Ukraine forces in the Donbas/Donetsk area will blitz and punch through and taking Donbas/Donetsk.
Ukraine's population isn't 37 million excluding Crimea/Donbass. It is closer to 27 million. Ukraine hasn't had a census for many years and if you look at bread consumption or other metrics, it suggests a much lower population than the official one. In addition, there has been a lot of emigration. Mostly women but some men also did illegally leave.
Finally, North Vietnam had a TFR of what.. 5 or 6 per woman? Ukraine had 1.3 before the war. You simply cannot replenish the manpower in the same way that the Vietnamese did because even 20 years ago, Ukraine's TFR was below 2.
The way that Ukraine has "solved" this is to rely increasingly more on mercenaries. This can work up to a point, but there will be limits on that too.
Crimea of course. Russia never planned to claim the Donbass in the first place. Otherwise why even bother with Minsk or Minsk 2?
Crimea is an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the middle of the Black Sea. And the Black Sea is where nearly all of Russia's food exports and imports pass through the port of Novosibirsk. You might as well ask if the US would be ok with China having a naval base in Guantanamo Bay. Or be able to close the mouth of the Mississippi.
Just catching up on this thread but I think the bolded is right.
Russians basically left their fortifications around Kherson airport by the end of October. Around that time civilians started withdrawing to the east side of the river as well. I think Ukrainians started saying afterwards that it's a trap, dam going to blow etc etc. but I think it's now proven that they were genuinely withdrawing.
Empty forts from end of October here:
This is just images of one location of course but I think the Russian military may have been trying to withdraw from the region for a long time.
Russia inflicted heavy casualties on Ukraine no doubt, but were fighting at a 2 to 1 manpower disadvantage at the best of times with precarious supply chokepoints. They were using the ferry for supplies at Nova Khakovka since the dam road got damaged at one point. Not sure if they ever got around to fixing it.
Personal theory: they're probably not in synch with the civilian leadership, they built fortifications at places like Nova Khakovka dam in case they need to dig in and fight but looks like the Russian military leadership finally got the withdrawal.