The War in the Ukraine

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Well, sometimes things are exactly how they seem and other times they are not.
I am very much aware of two critical factors.
1) Deception is a key ingredient in warfare ancient and modern
2) A good general knows the weaknesses of his opponents.

A good deception can only work if it is credible and the Ukrainian leadership crave media victories above all other.
If any Russian General understands both of these points, its Armageddon!

It is strange timing, after months of successfully maintaining a front on the North bank of the River, to suddenly call time, just on the eve of having the forces and the conditions to go back on the offensive.

Now I found myself torn on this. Many have said that Nikoliave and after that Odessa were the main strategic aims of the next Russian offensives, while I have always looked to the areas adjacent to the Donbass in the East. That part of me says that the withdrawal is real and that the Dnieper will form the real new ultimate boundary between Russia and the the Ukraine.

The other part can see the grand deception, telegraphed for all to see and even a woeful looking Shoigu being lectured by Armageddon on TV.

Bluff? Double Bluff?..... The Russians are still there and I hear that the Ukrainian commanders are reluctant to start moving forward to occupy supposedly abandoned positions.....

Well gentleman, place your bets.....
Losing Kherson is a major strategic loss. The only way to make this up is if they use the forces freed up to go on the offensive elsewhere, cut the bridges across the Dnieper as much as possible, and take rest of Donbass + push up the east bank of the Dnieper towards Zaphorizhia city.

I'm surprised only 80k loyalist citizens are evacuating. Kherson had a population of 280k.
 

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The original objective has always been Donestk and Luhansk.... Kherson was an easy-to-capture (falling on day 8 6 of invasion), nice-to-have, but too-expensive and non-critical area that diverts from the original objective of S.M.O.

Since Donestk is only 50% captured, it makes sense to concentrate troops from Kiev, Kharkiv, and Kherson fronts to the singular objective in Donbass...once Donestk falls (which harbors the most battle-hardened veteran troops), Russia can focus on Odessa/Kharkiv/Belarus front again, particularly once their most powerful units are shattered in Donestk.
 
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Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Losing Kherson is a major strategic loss. The only way to make this up is if they use the forces freed up to go on the offensive elsewhere, cut the bridges across the Dnieper as much as possible, and take rest of Donbass + push up the east bank of the Dnieper towards Zaphorizhia city.

I'm surprised only 80k loyalist citizens are evacuating. Kherson had a population of 280k.
Two choices:

1: One of the big factor is the dam...Russian stay in Kherson, Ukraine blow it = no more bridges, pontoons, city and no water to Crimea. Troops are gone, no resupply possible. You loss troops and get nothing.

2; If Russia go on the east bank and leave Kherson city: Kherson need the dam for electricity and you don't destroy what you own....and Crimea receive water. Troops are bitter but safe. You got way more troops to get east of Ukraine.

I choose two.
 

RedMetalSeadramon

Junior Member
Registered Member
You're talking about the past, I'm talking about the present.

Come on, I'll apply your logic. Let's say Russia builds this crossing structure with concrete pillars, do you really think they're going to stay intact with Ukraine being inert about it? If they have already managed to attack crossing points when there was evacuation of civilians in Kherson with ferries that are mobile vehicles, there is not the slightest doubt that by creating a crossing bridge using civil engineering equipment that is stationary, Ukraine would duly have one more target to be directed, by the way, with Himars, the chances of success are almost 100% of success. How would this affect Russia's long-term logistics?

I agree. But what about the AFU attacks? Himars has enough range to hit all these points. How would that affect long-term logistics? By the way, what you are proposing here is an unusual effort of logistical structure in order to keep the troops resupplying on the right bank, the very fact of having to transport these structures and they fit perfectly in the Dnieper, would still be a tremendous logistical effort, even pre-assembled structure.

Continuing logistical support is difficult in any combat. In watercourse crossing operations, assault forces are separated from their support elements by the river. As a result, it is necessary to emphasize the continuity of logistical support and, at the same time, minimize congestion in the crossing area. The planning of logistical support must take into account the increasing needs in watercourse transposition operations. Plans are made in advance and plans must seek to mitigate the consequences:
(1) the effects of loss of supplies, equipment and personnel, fundamental to the operation;
(2) the delay in the assembly operation and in the construction of bridges and other vital structures for the transposition;
(3) enemy interference with surface travel and
by air, in the rear areas and in the crossing area;
(4) the limited number of highways.

If you apply the logic to the case in Kherson, you will see that from option 2) to 4), the Russians would have to continually worry because of the widespread Ukrainian interference, since the construction of bridges is only started as long as you manage to drive away from the enemy the selected places, by any means, the observed fire of enemy artillery, which is the case of Kherson,, normally such condition is obtained by the conquest of the regions that prevent the enemy to carry out the artillery fires. Obviously this will go into other details from the employment of Russia's labor in Ukraine to effectively other types of analysis to arrive at common sense, but what is in the central debate is that the way you express it, it would be impossible for Russia to maintain.

In fact, some a little less, in the range of 450 meters. But I return to the previous question, you are applying the logic of 6 months ago, where they had enough time to create solutions for crossing.

Would the AFU artillery be inert on this? Also, how many redundant crossing points are needed? How many specialized vehicles are needed? Allied to all this, will Russian artillery support all these redundancies? What about the air defense apparatus to create this redundancy? And what about logistical support at all these redundant points? Do you know that maintenance is intensified in the preparation of transpositions? Will you have enough maintenance units for all these crossing areas? Whether for communications equipment and weapons that require additional efforts? By the way, let's say that they actually create this crossing width and many redundant points, how will the logistical support facilities that are staggered as far forward as possible to support the operation look like? The AFU will not attack? Will all this be covered by Russia's air defense? If the AFU can attack military installations in the rear, how prudent would that be in order to create a necessary foothold with extensive air defense coverage against the AFU? Did you see the state of the Antonovsky bridge even though it was under air cover from the Russian defense system? How much would this be possible over a wide range of redundant traversals?

Here's the error. I was talking about the present, you about the past. But again, it returns to my previous questions. Would they all be intact in the face of the precision of the Ukrainian artillery system? What other solutions?

This is why there is redundancy to these bridges, I suggested 10 with 5 in reserve, but you phrase this suggestion as through Ukrainian efforts has no cost to them as well. The Ukrainians are 40km away from most of these positions and are out of reach of conventional artillery, this leaves them with guided systems, which can be counterattacked. If one of those rockets hits a section it can be restored quickly, just float another one in its place, rely on the other 9 until it's fixed.

Ukrainians have to consider that attacking the bridge exposes their launchers and their aircraft, what if the launcher gets counterstriked? what if aircraft get shot down? is it worth trying if the Russian can just drag another section within a day hours? is it worth disabling 7 of the 10 if the Russian can still continue using the other 3? A missile is a rocket engine and a guidance system, a pontoon bridge section is welded steel plates with some hinges, who loses more when it comes to mutual destruction?

But either way as an argumentative point its irrelevant because everything said about it also applies to the current Antonovsky bridge as well. To consider potential temporary bridges useless and unworkable because of possible risk of neutralization is to also argue the Antonovsky bridge is useless, yet it was used and greatly enhanced Russian position on the west bank.

Even one pontoon bridge, in addition/place of current ferry would greatly enhance the current Russian position. If you accept this fact you also have to accept that there's considerable benefit to multiple redundant crossings.
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
Surovikin said today that 115,000 civilians have been evacuated from Kherson.

Russia has the largest number of Ukrainian refugees - 2,852,000.

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My opinion!
1. The only connection to Kherson and region is via boats and ferry pontoons. No landbridge.
2. Surovikin has long said that logistics is a big problem not only for the military, but for civilians as well. How do you transport food and other products across the river to feed so many civilians!?
3. The soldiers there, about 30K, would become sitting ducks if the dam were to break
4. Anybody who thinks that piece of land should have been kept at all cost, doesn't care about the life of those soldiers
5. If Russia were to lose those soldiers there, professional highly trained and experienced troops, the road to the rest of Kherson and Crimea would be wide open
 

RottenPanzer

Junior Member
Registered Member
On the issue of blood, not much Russian blood has been shed. All of Russia's poor military performance can be explained by the simple observation that Russia cannot politically afford mass casualties. Ukraine can; that's an asymmetry Russia must take into consideration and it seems Surovikin has with his state-destruction campaign.

Russia is not going to get thousands of its soldiers killed over a city. Sucks, especially for those who put themselves under Russia's protection and didn't evacuate, but that's just how it is. A few square kilometers here and there don't matter, what Russia is after is the destruction of the Ukrainian state.

They're already radicalized and their hatred is at maximum. Ten times maximum isn't any more maximum. Ukrainians hated Russia before, they'll hate it cold and hungry now.
This may be pretty controversial but, with their very radicalized nature, would using nukes to be a potential solution out of this conflict? In fact, i think it is very necessary Russia to consider the usage or deployment of Tactical Nuclear Weapons at this stage of the operation as a temporary gap measure for the upcoming reserves
 

anzha

Captain
Registered Member
I suspect the retreat is real. It's a sticky spot to be in. I also suspect the best units have been pulled already. Time will tell though.

Nukes are not an option, IMO.

Given the prevalence of drones, small scale ones, and their effectiveness in the war, if either side had swarms and they had laser designators, I have to wonder if precision artillery would chew up armored formations in a big way.

This is in addition to just the drones being able to scope out and find equipment far, far better than before and do micro strikes with the VOG grenades.

This would mean, as a lesson learned from the Russo-Ukrainian war, spotting and counter drones is going to be even more important than ever. Esp when taken into the next conflict.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Two choices:

1: One of the big factor is the dam...Russian stay in Kherson, Ukraine blow it = no more bridges, pontoons, city and no water to Crimea. Troops are gone, no resupply possible. You loss troops and get nothing.

2; If Russia go on the east bank and leave Kherson city: Kherson need the dam for electricity and you don't destroy what you own....and Crimea receive water. Troops are bitter but safe. You got way more troops to get east of Ukraine.

I choose two.
if they lost the dam then its moot, and the dam itself is a major crossing.

Isn’t that the prewar population? Not a lot of people want to stay on a frontline city for the last several months.
I saw the updated figure of 115k, which looks more realistic for a total evacuation of a frontline city. One thing that the Russians have done right is to take care of the local population to a degree where they either willingly follow the Russian military's evacuation orders or do not have the capability to resist.

If Russia keeps this up, Ukraine will permanently lose everyone that fled while Russia gains the ~3 million who fled to Russia and the 6 million of conquered regions. It's going to be a long war of attrition. Imperial Japan put up a good fight against the US at first too, then the firebombs started hitting Tokyo.
 
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