Tank battle between two T-72, a B3 or B4 vs. an M. It looks like the Ukrainian M tank lost but despite the knockout, the crew survived and managed to get out of the tank. However the Russian tank fired another round so the fate of the crew may still be not as lucky. Would be great to get the crew survival rates of all T-72 used in the conflict.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Has Oryx pics of the claimed "abandon" equipment came out yet?
The Ukrainians attacked all 5 crossing points of the river that the Russians used to cross, this gives us a good indication that there was no agreement between Russia and the USA.The latest from Rybar:
Nikolaev-Kherson direction
situation as of 13.00 November 11, 2022
The Russian Ministry of Defense officially announced the completion of the withdrawal of the group of troops of the Russian Armed Forces from the right bank of the Dnieper: the last equipment and personnel completed the transfer at 5 am. According to military correspondent Alexander Sladkov , over 20 thousand personnel and 3.5 thousand pieces of equipment were withdrawn.
The Russian Defense Ministry says that not a single piece of military equipment and weapons was left on the right bank of the Dnieper. Apparently, reports from the field were submitted this way, because there are enough personnel with captured equipment. Another question is that this equipment could be out of order for a long time , and its evacuation seemed inappropriate.
Troops to the last assisted in the evacuation of civilians. The crossings were hit by 5 massive strikes with HIMARS rockets, Russian air defense shot down 28 shells, and 5 more were deflected from targets by means of electronic warfare.
us :
Another thing is that all 20,000 troops have crossed the river that the Rybar claims, this is half of what other sources have reported, which explains why they finished the crossing today, if there were twice as many troops as alleged, the crossing would take longer more or would have to be started a month before the formal public declaration of Russian military authorities, this supposedly confirms that Russia did not dump the mobilized on the right bank of the Dnieper as is supposed, because this amount was already estimated before any news of dispatch of mobilized to the front lines.
All three bridges were detonated by the Russians, which I would have expected, although I was not very confident they would have done so given the incredible ineffectiveness or recklessness of not attacking the bridges as has always been argued.
Another news was the aerial coverage carried out by fighter jets, which I would certainly have expected.
Some of The Guardian's statements:
And we still have more reinforcement info coming soon:
Would not be the same effect than a 40t warhead, 1000km range weapon... That kink of weapon would clearly wipe-out target like bridge, village, fortification and hope on a front in one blow.
These Iran missiles are probably a cheaper fillgap for Iskander and cruise missiles. The amount of quality ammunitions used for soft targets is insanely high before we see the usage of Geran suicide drones and Lancet. We have even seen Iskander on buk missile launcher... on fuel tanks etc.
Judging by that first video of the victory parade, there is certainly no shortage of rations in the Ukrainian Army!
See, in the WWII , when the Wermacht hasn't finished the Barbarossa by winter the main plan of the miliary was to go back, possibly to Poland to the winter gear, and think about the next step there.
Hitler forced them to "not to make a step back".
End result was the grinding of the German army, loosing its combat capabilities and defeat.
IF the German units after the failure of the Operatin Barbarossa just pull back to easy to defend areas, and preserve they combat capability then there is no D day, battle of berlin and so on.
Now, it is the Capitol and the Ukrainan NATO army whom playing Hitler and the WWII wermacht.
No step back, keep every area that you get.
And interenstingly, it took good helf year to be visible to failure of Blitzkierg, and four years to grind to nothing the german army.
At that time the SU was twice as big population wise than Gemrany, now Russia is 4-7 times bigger than Ukraine.
So, we can expect faster grinding.
Mariupol is about 100 km from the nearest point of contact. The problem for the Ukrainians is that if they try to advance towards Mariupol it would be a spearhead with both flanks open, the left flank being very close to the Russian border (about 50 km). I don't know if an attack on Mariupol would be the best option. Now with the fall of Kherson, Ukraine must be thinking about another place to attack, let's see during the winter.
My opinion is that the Ukrainians do not attack where there is a large concentration of Russian troops. Due to the numbers of soldiers Russia cannot have a dense front line like it is planning to do on the other side of the Dnieper. So Ukraine will check the front line, when it finds a weak point, it concentrates its forces and pierces the line. As the depth of Russian lines rarely exceeds 15km (that's where the artillery is) after the front line is breached the result is what we saw in Kharkiv or north of Kherson just before the general Russian retreat. The most targeted target in southern Ukraine at the moment is Melitopol, if they manage to conquer, anyone in Crimea and near the Dnieper is isolated as a section of the bridge is unable to carry heavy loads.
I believe the targets are Melitopol and clearly Svatove. To sever the connection of the 2 fronts and isolate the Crimean Peninsula. It is a bold move, but one that would prove decisive in the war as the Russians would not easily resupply the remainder of Kherson Oblast. If Melitopol is taken because the bridge in Crimea is still damaged, Svatove would break the Russian supply line to Luhansk from Belgorod. From the last package of equipment donated by the USA I assume that this 2 points will be the new offensive, the list includes:
Ammo for the Himars
21,000 155mm artillery rounds
500 precision-guided 155mm artillery shells
10,000 120mm mortar rounds
100 high mobility multipurpose wheeled vehicles, or Humvees
400 grenade launchers
Small arms, optics and over 20,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition
Demolition equipment for removing obstacles
Cold protection equipment
And for the first time Ukraine will be receiving missiles for the HAWK air defense system, along with four Avenger air defense systems and also Stinger missiles are going to Ukraine as part of a security assistance package from the presidential authority worth up to $400 million announced by the DoD.
In time, in the retreat the Russians destroyed the bridge that passes under the river. On the one hand, considering the current climate situation and, consequently, the soil, this will stop any eventual Ukrainian advance on the left bank of the river. On the other hand, it also prevents any attempt by the Russians to take it back, guaranteeing the Ukrainians the possibility of carrying out a major fortification in the defense lines in the south of their territory. Apart from an unlikely amphibious assault, this region tends to be free of Russian advances, tending to stabilize the advances of both sides. Apart from the possibility of an advance through Belarus, the conflict, once and for all, focuses on eastern Ukraine.
I believe that we are close to an operational impasse in which neither side will be able to make significant advances. And that's the best chance of an eventual ceasefire agreement.
Looking back I see the following.
Moment 1: initial scare of the Ukrainian defense forces. Russians attacked from all sides. There was no interest in a ceasefire on the Russian side. Here they included unrealizable clauses, such as the disarmament of Ukraine or such denazification.
Moment 2: Ukrainians begin to consolidate the lines of defense. Russians retreat in Kiev. At this point, Ukrainians lose interest in a ceasefire.
Moment 3: Russians concentrate efforts in the east and south, achieving relative success on the ground. Once again the Russians lose interest in the ceasefire.
Moment 4: Russians fail to maintain the effort in the north of the terrain, retreating in Kharkiv, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive. With the retaking of territories in Kharkiv and the maintenance of the counteroffensive in Lugansk and Kherson, the Ukrainians once again lost interest in the ceasefire.
And now, with the retaking of Kherson, the tendency would be for the Ukrainians to continue hitting the key of total retaking of the territory. But, considering the difficulties that eventual advances will have at that time, on both sides, it may be that the impasse imposes some kind of negotiation. Especially since the tendency is for external pressure to increase for Ukraine, while Putin faces internal pressures. With that, if I were to bet, I believe there will at least be a return to the negotiating table.
If not this time and winter passes, we will likely have a 2023 with this conflict still ongoing. If the Ukrainians manage to maintain the level of support until then, I believe that Putin will not arrive until the beginning of 2024 in office, indications of this, for example, in the confirmation of his absence from Bali at the G20.
My opinion is that the Ukrainians do not attack where there is a large concentration of Russian troops. Due to the numbers of soldiers Russia cannot have a dense front line like it is planning to do on the other side of the Dnieper. So Ukraine will check the front line, when it finds a weak point, it concentrates its forces and pierces the line. As the depth of Russian lines rarely exceeds 15km (that's where the artillery is) after the front line is breached the result is what we saw in Kharkiv or north of Kherson just before the general Russian retreat. The most targeted target in southern Ukraine at the moment is Melitopol, if they manage to conquer, anyone in Crimea and near the Dnieper is isolated as a section of the bridge is unable to carry heavy loads.
I believe the targets are Melitopol and clearly Svatove. To sever the connection of the 2 fronts and isolate the Crimean Peninsula. It is a bold move, but one that would prove decisive in the war as the Russians would not easily resupply the remainder of Kherson Oblast. If Melitopol is taken because the bridge in Crimea is still damaged, Svatove would break the Russian supply line to Luhansk from Belgorod. From the last package of equipment donated by the USA I assume that this 2 points will be the new offensive, the list includes:
Ammo for the Himars
21,000 155mm artillery rounds
500 precision-guided 155mm artillery shells
10,000 120mm mortar rounds
100 high mobility multipurpose wheeled vehicles, or Humvees
400 grenade launchers
Small arms, optics and over 20,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition
Demolition equipment for removing obstacles
Cold protection equipment
And for the first time Ukraine will be receiving missiles for the HAWK air defense system, along with four Avenger air defense systems and also Stinger missiles are going to Ukraine as part of a security assistance package from the presidential authority worth up to $400 million announced by the DoD.
In time, in the retreat the Russians destroyed the bridge that passes under the river. On the one hand, considering the current climate situation and, consequently, the soil, this will stop any eventual Ukrainian advance on the left bank of the river. On the other hand, it also prevents any attempt by the Russians to take it back, guaranteeing the Ukrainians the possibility of carrying out a major fortification in the defense lines in the south of their territory. Apart from an unlikely amphibious assault, this region tends to be free of Russian advances, tending to stabilize the advances of both sides. Apart from the possibility of an advance through Belarus, the conflict, once and for all, focuses on eastern Ukraine.
I believe that we are close to an operational impasse in which neither side will be able to make significant advances. And that's the best chance of an eventual ceasefire agreement.
Looking back I see the following.
Moment 1: initial scare of the Ukrainian defense forces. Russians attacked from all sides. There was no interest in a ceasefire on the Russian side. Here they included unrealizable clauses, such as the disarmament of Ukraine or such denazification.
Moment 2: Ukrainians begin to consolidate the lines of defense. Russians retreat in Kiev. At this point, Ukrainians lose interest in a ceasefire.
Moment 3: Russians concentrate efforts in the east and south, achieving relative success on the ground. Once again the Russians lose interest in the ceasefire.
Moment 4: Russians fail to maintain the effort in the north of the terrain, retreating in Kharkiv, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive. With the retaking of territories in Kharkiv and the maintenance of the counteroffensive in Lugansk and Kherson, the Ukrainians once again lost interest in the ceasefire.
And now, with the retaking of Kherson, the tendency would be for the Ukrainians to continue hitting the key of total retaking of the territory. But, considering the difficulties that eventual advances will have at that time, on both sides, it may be that the impasse imposes some kind of negotiation. Especially since the tendency is for external pressure to increase for Ukraine, while Putin faces internal pressures. With that, if I were to bet, I believe there will at least be a return to the negotiating table.
If not this time and winter passes, we will likely have a 2023 with this conflict still ongoing. If the Ukrainians manage to maintain the level of support until then, I believe that Putin will not arrive until the beginning of 2024 in office, indications of this, for example, in the confirmation of his absence from Bali at the G20.
Your analysis is right but the new situation makes the Russian Army in the rest of the Kherson Oblast in complete HIMARS/M270 range