The War in the Ukraine

tamsen_ikard said:

Ukraine is also not losing much men. 30 million ukrainians can easily mobilize 10 million total man power long term. They have only mobilized around a million so far. They still have 9 million to go. They cab drip feed manpower for decades.

Unless Russia fundamentally changes the warfare situation by either doing their own mass mobilization and mass production of weaponry similar to ww2, this war will not end anytime soon.

Russia needs to mobilize 5 million men, go 20-30% of gdp into war production. Only then they can hope to win

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The war isn’t going to go on for decades. And neither will we be seeing mass mobilization or mass production of weaponry unless NATO decides directly goes to war with Russia.

tamsen_ikard said:

The war will go on for a long time unless Russia collapses. There is no way EU or the west will accept any kind of ceasefire without full Russian withdrawal. Ukrainains will not accept a ceasefire without full withdrawal.

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That only works if there is a stalemate, which there isn’t.

tamsen_ikard said:

The west has unlimited funding compared to Russia. The combined gdp of us and eu is 50 trillion. Sending 100 billion to ukraine per year is chump change for them. They can keep fighting for decades.

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Paying $100,000 instead of $2000 for an artillery shell isn’t going to magically change their deteriorating situation.

wuguanhui said:

Right now, Russia looks like it wants to fight to the last Ukrainian, Europe wants to fight to the last Ukrainian, and Ukraine wants to fight to the last Ukrainian. Odds are good that everybody is going to get what they want.

The war will likely end with Russia badly bruised and battered for a generation, Europe on the verge of economic collapse, and Ukraine with a lot less Ukrainians. It's hard to say who is the winner because everyone looks like a loser. This entire war has been a failure for all parties and a giant waste of blood and treasure, especially for Russia who monumentally fucked up the opening of this war and it's now paying the price in a retarded slow grinding war of human and industrial attrition.

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They are halfway there. Sometime ago the Ukrainian Ministry of Social Policy said there are only 20-21 million Ukrainians left in the controlled territory. That is out of the 40 million. This means around half either dead or deserted, migrated out of the country or becoming ex-Ukrainian by switching their allegiance to Russia.

Ukrainian infrastructure will be long gone before the last Ukrainian, sorry to hear that. With the rates of interception falling, this means for every ruble or hyrhnia, Russian drones and missiles will hit their targets much more frequently while each costing much less, against a much smaller area and a much smaller cushion or margin of resilience before social collapse.

Petro-Ivanivka has fallen.


What were they thinking? The Mother of all Ammunition Depots is located next to a residential area and the Russians blew it up.


"This is what the satellite city of Kyiv Vishnevoye looks like today after the explosion of an ammunition depot with uranium.

↓91 houses were completely destroyed, 27 apartment buildings and 253 private houses were damaged.
↓Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Sviridenko previously reported that the greatest destruction during the entire war was recorded in Vishnevoye near Kiev."

Huge fire in Odessa after a strike. Odessa was hit by ballistic missiles, hitting a production plant.


The fight has moved to Druzhkovka. Location of the fighting tells me what places are already taken and where the zone of fire engagement has moved. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian positions in Konstantinovka confirms it's capture by Russians and Russian drone attacks on Druzhkovka confirms that the fire zone has moved northward. Two Ukrainian self propelled guns, an M109 Paladin and a 2S22 Bogdana, were hit by Russian drones in Druzhkovka.


Don't mistake vulnerability to uselessness. Despite apparently shoot and scoot tactics aren't working as hoped, artillery is still crucial in the battlefield. Artillery and tanks can still deliver more explosive downrange much faster than drones.

Ukrainian UAV control point in Dobrophilia gets hit by a 152mm shell by a MSTA-S belonging to the Group Center of forces.


Russian artillery working on Ukrainian squads moving house to house on Alekseev Druzhkovka. Moving from house to house is a tactic to avoid fire is a tactic constantly used by both sides, but in this case, remains observed by drones, which guide the artillery. The location also points to the fire zone moving north from Konstantinovka.

Nilou said:

Look I think people think I am simping for Europe.
I am not. This situation is perfect for China and the United States.

But as it is Russia looks totally doomed. That is all I am saying.
They have lost escalation dominance and have not been able to deter Ukraine from bombing their capitals.
Their only option out is to seek more assistance from China, but they continue to think they can continue to drag out negotiations with China to try to get a better deal. They can't, they are on a timer. They need to accept the bitter reality that they are stuck and give concessions to China in order to get the technological and military support they need to decisively win in Ukraine. Until that happens they have no way out.

Earlier waiting the US out seemed like an option but clearly that has failed, as even though the US has cut most of their support, Ukraine is still able to bomb Russian cities.

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The prevailing view is that Europe will remain indefinitely in an indirect war with Russia; however, the US has demonstrated that administrations come and go and situations can shift overnight—witness the transition from Biden to Trump, who cut off all military aid.

The Russians may have lost control over the escalation, but they possess something more useful than any inherent advantage derived from that: the use of time as a weapon. This makes a massive difference, as time can change everything.

NATO is engaged in an indirect war with Russia. Prolonged wars inevitably erode the political and social cohesion of the West—a phenomenon known as the spiral of attrition facing liberal democracies.

Prolonged war begins > social fatigue (psychological exhaustion and civic apathy among the population) > electoral pressure (punishing leaders and fueling populist narratives) > political dissent (protests, strikes, and challenges to the democratic order) > narrative fragmentation (collapse of consensus and waning support for the war) > prolonged war.

All of this leads to strategic consequences: reduced support for Ukraine, pressure for negotiations, a loss of Western authority and legitimacy, and so on.

wuguanhui said:

Right now, Russia looks like it wants to fight to the last Ukrainian, Europe wants to fight to the last Ukrainian, and Ukraine wants to fight to the last Ukrainian. Odds are good that everybody is going to get what they want.

The war will likely end with Russia badly bruised and battered for a generation, Europe on the verge of economic collapse, and Ukraine with a lot less Ukrainians. It's hard to say who is the winner because everyone looks like a loser. This entire war has been a failure for all parties and a giant waste of blood and treasure, especially for Russia who monumentally fucked up the opening of this war and it's now paying the price in a retarded slow grinding war of human and industrial attrition.

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I am not sure the conclusion is quite so obvious.

With nearly five years having passed since the start of the war—which evolved into a high-intensity war of attrition driven by NATO to maximize economic, military, social, and political exhaustion—we can offer a critical and objective assessment of the effects the Russo-Ukrainian War has had on Russia, beyond its deep entanglement in a protracted conflict and a fierce confrontation with the West that has brought about seismic shifts within Russian society and institutions.

1) Negative consequences for the Russian Federation stemming from the war in Ukraine
a) Massive human losses > short-term effect
b) Destruction of and damage to civilian infrastructure > short-term effect
c) Fuel and energy issues > short-term effect
d) Digital isolation and Internet degradation > medium-term effect
e) Unprecedented international sanctions > medium-term effect
f) Decline in living standards and inflation > short-term effect
g) Flight and "brain drain" > long-term effect
h) Growing dependence on China > long-term effect
i) Militarization and domestic repression > medium-term effect
j) NATO expansion in its strategic periphery and escalating confrontation directed against it > long-term effect

2) Positive aspects for Russia resulting from the war in Ukraine
a) Growth in domestic production driven by import substitution across numerous economic sectors > medium-term effect
b) Development of the military-industrial complex > medium-term effect
c) Formation of alternative diplomatic alliances > long-term effect
d) Purging of corrupt military personnel > short-term effect
e) Forced acquisition of unique experience and stress-testing of the country's systems > long-term effect
f) Control over destroyed cities > long-term effect

Regardless of the war's outcome, negative effects predominate in the short and medium term, whereas potential positive gains will only materialize given appropriate policies and long-term stability.

I wouldn't be so sure about continued NATO support for Ukraine.
NATO supports Ukraine because they are not bleeding directly and the Ukrainians are cheap and willing to throw themselves into the meat grinder for empty promises.

However the truth is this war has actually directly caused the long term de-industrialization of Europe. Europe now is forced to not only support the Ukrainian military, but also it's entire civil service and government. Without EU aid money, the Ukrainian state is bankrupt and can't even pay out retirement checks much less pay the soldiers and maintain the infrastructure. The level of corruption in Ukrainian state is also a factor.

The population in the EU are not so pro-war to begin with. They are mad against the neoliberal status quo just like the MAGA movement which is also pro Russia. They are going through a historically very fast economic decline where the share of GDP has declined faster than Qing China. When people can't pay for their food and gas bills they aren't going to be happy about paying the Ukrainian retirees along with the soldier's widows.

Of course Ukrainians themselves are a head strong people and are willing to stand and fight, but the same goes for Russians. For the analogy of the Vietnam war brought up earlier, I actually see the EU's willingness to fight break before Russia. I think overall EU governments will likely see a shift to the alt-right, which is pro-russia as we've seen in the US.

Sinnavuuty said:

I am not sure the conclusion is quite so obvious.

With nearly five years having passed since the start of the war—which evolved into a high-intensity war of attrition driven by NATO to maximize economic, military, social, and political exhaustion—we can offer a critical and objective assessment of the effects the Russo-Ukrainian War has had on Russia, beyond its deep entanglement in a protracted conflict and a fierce confrontation with the West that has brought about seismic shifts within Russian society and institutions.

1) Negative consequences for the Russian Federation stemming from the war in Ukraine
a) Massive human losses > short-term effect
b) Destruction of and damage to civilian infrastructure > short-term effect
c) Fuel and energy issues > short-term effect
d) Digital isolation and Internet degradation > medium-term effect
e) Unprecedented international sanctions > medium-term effect
f) Decline in living standards and inflation > short-term effect
g) Flight and "brain drain" > long-term effect
h) Growing dependence on China > long-term effect
i) Militarization and domestic repression > medium-term effect
j) NATO expansion in its strategic periphery and escalating confrontation directed against it > long-term effect

2) Positive aspects for Russia resulting from the war in Ukraine
a) Growth in domestic production driven by import substitution across numerous economic sectors > medium-term effect
b) Development of the military-industrial complex > medium-term effect
c) Formation of alternative diplomatic alliances > long-term effect
d) Purging of corrupt military personnel > short-term effect
e) Forced acquisition of unique experience and stress-testing of the country's systems > long-term effect
f) Control over destroyed cities > long-term effect

Regardless of the war's outcome, negative effects predominate in the short and medium term, whereas potential positive gains will only materialize given appropriate policies and long-term stability.

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Is this written by AI?

RavenClaws said:

I wouldn't be so sure about continued NATO support for Ukraine.
NATO supports Ukraine because they are not bleeding directly and the Ukrainians are cheap and willing to throw themselves into the meat grinder for empty promises.

However the truth is this war has actually directly caused the long term de-industrialization of Europe. Europe now is forced to not only support the Ukrainian military, but also it's entire civil service and government. Without EU aid money, the Ukrainian state is bankrupt and can't even pay out retirement checks much less pay the soldiers and maintain the infrastructure. The level of corruption in Ukrainian state is also a factor.

The population in the EU are not so pro-war to begin with. They are mad against the neoliberal status quo just like the MAGA movement which is also pro Russia. They are going through a historically very fast economic decline where the share of GDP has declined faster than Qing China. When people can't pay for their food and gas bills they aren't going to be happy about paying the Ukrainian retirees along with the soldier's widows.

Of course Ukrainians themselves are a head strong people and are willing to stand and fight, but the same goes for Russians. For the analogy of the Vietnam war brought up earlier, I actually see the EU's willingness to fight break before Russia. I think overall EU governments will likely see a shift to the alt-right, which is pro-russia as we've seen in the US.

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This is a very shallow analysis of Economics and Geopolitics. EU is losing industrial market share to China because of Chinese competence, not just because of high energy cost. EU is the ultimate project of the Western empire. Its not gonna collapse Just cause they have few industries losing money.

Japan has seen stagnation and literal economic decline for 50 years, they have lost even more industry to China. Did they become any less radicalized and pro china? Nope they became even more anti-China.

EU will not become pro-Russia just cause they see economic decline for a few quarters, they will most likely double, triple down.

Again, its chump change for EU to supply Ukraine with 100 billion every year. Once Trump is gone, US will again double, tripple down on Ukraine and supply another 100 billion.

EU willingness to fight Russia will never stop in the next 20 years. It will only escalate further. They feel they are winning and have a very good shot at collapsing Russia using this war. They are salivating right now. They will only become even more desperate and invest more.

tamsen_ikard said:

This is a very shallow analysis of Economics and Geopolitics. EU is losing industrial market share to China because of Chinese competence, not just because of high energy cost. EU is the ultimate project of the Western empire. Its not gonna collapse Just cause they have few industries losing money.

Japan has seen stagnation and literal economic decline for 50 years, they have lost even more industry to China. Did they become any less radicalized and pro china? Nope they became even more anti-China.

EU will not become pro-Russia just cause they see economic decline for a few quarters, they will most likely double, triple down.

Again, its chump change for EU to supply Ukraine with 100 billion every year. Once Trump is gone, US will again double, tripple down on Ukraine and supply another 100 billion.

EU willingness to fight Russia will never stop in the next 20 years. It will only escalate further. They feel they are winning and have a very good shot at collapsing Russia using this war. They are salivating right now. They will only become even more desperate and invest more.

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Exactly. Europe intends on opposing Russia for a long time. Their entire commitment to increased defence spending shows this. Who else would they use their new militaries in 2040-2050 on? Military spending and radicalisation is not opposed to reductions in car production, if anything it is synergistic, as car plants and the workers there can be retrained and repurposed for military production.

The most important European country is Germany. They fully commited to increased spending in 2025 after ruminating for years, showing this is a serious commitment. This situation is actually excellent for Germany. Europe had been begging for Germany to rearm for years already, and now Europe wants a strong Germany, what used to be their nightmare. Imagine this happening 50 years ago.

The biggest loser is France. Economically are already dominated by Germany. With their huge fiscal power, Germany will inevitably dominate France in military in the future as well, which is their only advantage. This threat to France is a key driver as to why FCAS failed.

Nilou said:

Exactly. Europe intends on opposing Russia for a long time. Their entire commitment to increased defence spending shows this. Who else would they use their new militaries in 2040-2050 on? Military spending and radicalisation is not opposed to reductions in car production, if anything it is synergistic, as car plants and the workers there can be retrained and repurposed for military production.

The most important European country is Germany. They fully commited to increased spending in 2025 after ruminating for years, showing this is a serious commitment. This situation is actually excellent for Germany. Europe had been begging for Germany to rearm for years already, and now Europe wants a strong Germany, what used to be their nightmare. Imagine this happening 50 years ago.

The biggest loser is France. Economically are already dominated by Germany. With their huge fiscal power, Germany will inevitably dominate France in military in the future as well, which is their only advantage. This threat to France is a key driver as to why FCAS failed.

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They are forced by Trump to spend at least 5% of their GDP on their defense, or the US is gone from NATO. The US recently pulled out an entire tank brigade out of Europe recently.

Ah, let's play the game all poor debaters hate: Shoe on the other foot! Let's begin.

tamsen_ikard said:

The war will go on for a long time unless Russia collapses.

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The war will go on for a long time unless Ukraine/ the West collapses.

tamsen_ikard said:

There is no way EU or the west will accept any kind of ceasefire without full Russian withdrawal. Ukrainains will not accept a ceasefire without full withdrawal.

The west is too arrogant to give up and Ukraine is fully radicalized.

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There is no way Russia will accept any kind of ceasefire without full Ukrainian submission. Russia will not accept a ceasefire without taking all its spoils in Ukraine.

Russia is too arrogant to give up and is fully radicalized.

tamsen_ikard said:

The west has unlimited funding compared to Russia. The combined gdp of us and eu is 50 trillion. Sending 100 billion to ukraine per year is chump change for them. They can keep fighting for decades.

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How's their production compared to Russia+North Korea+China? We can keep fighting for milleniums.

tamsen_ikard said:

Ukraine will slowly move production to places in the EU outside of Russian missiles, that will ensure they have secure production of drones and other arms. That will increase pressure on russia by a lot.

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Russia will slowly move production to places in North Korea/deeper in Russia outside of Ukrainian drones, that will ensure they have secure production of drones and other arms. That will increase pressure on Ukraine/the EU by a lot.

tamsen_ikard said:

Ukraine is also not losing much men. 30 million ukrainians can easily mobilize 10 million total man power long term. They have only mobilized around a million so far. They still have 9 million to go. They cab drip feed manpower for decades.

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Russia is also not losing much men. 140+ million Russians can easily mobilize 30+ million total man power long term. They have used basically prisoners and mercenaries so far; they haven't even begun to be serious. They still have 30+ million to go. They can drip feed manpower for centuries.

tamsen_ikard said:

Unless Russia fundamentally changes the warfare situation by either doing their own mass mobilization and mass production of weaponry similar to ww2, this war will not end anytime soon.

Russia needs to mobilize 5 million men, go 20-30% of gdp into war production. Only then they can hope to win

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This would end things too quickly and the draining of the West would stop with the wound cauterized. This doesn't suit the big picture of helping China overtake the Western-led world order. The current situation is much better.

tamsen_ikard said:

This is a very shallow analysis of Economics and Geopolitics.

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By you.

tamsen_ikard said:

EU is losing industrial market share to China because of Chinese competence, not just because of high energy cost.

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Everything is a factor.

tamsen_ikard said:

EU is the ultimate project of the Western empire.

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I kinda think that's the US.

tamsen_ikard said:

Its not gonna collapse Just cause they have few industries losing money.

Japan has seen stagnation and literal economic decline for 50 years, they have lost even more industry to China. Did they become any less radicalized and pro china? Nope they became even more anti-China.

EU will not become pro-Russia just cause they see economic decline for a few quarters, they will most likely double, triple down

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Russia's not gonna collapse Just cause they have few industries losing money.

Japan has seen stagnation and literal economic decline for 50 years, they have lost even more industry to China. Did they become any less radicalized and pro china? Nope they became even more anti-China.

Russia will not become pro-Western just cause they see economic decline for a few quarters, they will most likely double, triple down

tamsen_ikard said:

Again, its chump change for EU to supply Ukraine with 100 billion every year. Once Trump is gone, US will again double, tripple down on Ukraine and supply another 100 billion.

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It's definitely chump change cus the chump is paying and the result is Russia's still taking territory and getting its way. Chump change is change spent by a chump and that's every Dollar and Euro drained into Ukraine.

tamsen_ikard said:

EU willingness to fight Russia will never stop in the next 20 years. It will only escalate further. They feel they are winning and have a very good shot at collapsing Russia using this war. They are salivating right now. They will only become even more desperate and invest more.

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Russian willingness to fight NATO will never stop in the next 20 years. It will only escalate further. They feel they are winning and have a very good shot at collapsing the West using this war. They are salivating right now. They will only become even more emboldened and invest more.