It must be noted that the 2026 Russian campaign in Ukraine appears to follow a coherent operational logic; its primary objective is not the immediate capture of cities or the achievement of vast territorial gains, but the progressive annihilation of Ukrainian military forces positioned in the Donbas.
From this perspective, Moscow is waging a war of attrition designed to destroy brigades, deplete reserves, degrade logistical capabilities, and erode the cohesion of the Ukrainian defensive system. According to our analysis, the main operational effort is concentrated in the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk area. The ultimate goal is to trigger the operational collapse of the defensive complex formed by Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka—considered the last major Ukrainian stronghold in the central Donbas.
The campaign is unfolding through several simultaneous operational efforts.
To the north, the Krasny Liman axis seeks to pin down Ukrainian forces, advance toward Borova, and limit Kyiv's ability to shift reinforcements to other critical sectors. Constant pressure in this zone compels the Ukrainian command to keep significant reserves committed, thereby reducing its strategic flexibility.
The main effort appears to be taking place in the central sector. The objective of these operations is not necessarily the immediate capture of the cities, but rather the progressive severing of their logistics and communication lines, hindering resupply, troop rotation, and the movement of reserves.
This logic follows a classic principle of operational art: a defensive system may be more vulnerable when isolated than when subjected to a frontal assault. Simultaneously, in the southern sector of the battlefront, the Eastern Group of Forces is conducting operations along the Huliaipole-Orikhiv axes. The objective here appears to be the destruction of Ukrainian formations positioned in the Zaporizhzhia region through a combination of frontal pressure, precision strikes, and logistical interdiction. This effort would be complemented by operations from the Dnieper Operational Command, tasked with intensifying pressure on the river's east bank, degrading Ukrainian defenses, and contributing to a future threat against the city of Zaporizhzhia. The convergence of these actions would force Ukraine to disperse its strategic reserves across multiple sectors simultaneously, hindering the stabilization of the front and reducing the Ukrainian command's operational response capability.
From this perspective, Moscow is waging a war of attrition designed to destroy brigades, deplete reserves, degrade logistical capabilities, and erode the cohesion of the Ukrainian defensive system. According to our analysis, the main operational effort is concentrated in the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk area. The ultimate goal is to trigger the operational collapse of the defensive complex formed by Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka—considered the last major Ukrainian stronghold in the central Donbas.
The campaign is unfolding through several simultaneous operational efforts.
To the north, the Krasny Liman axis seeks to pin down Ukrainian forces, advance toward Borova, and limit Kyiv's ability to shift reinforcements to other critical sectors. Constant pressure in this zone compels the Ukrainian command to keep significant reserves committed, thereby reducing its strategic flexibility.
The main effort appears to be taking place in the central sector. The objective of these operations is not necessarily the immediate capture of the cities, but rather the progressive severing of their logistics and communication lines, hindering resupply, troop rotation, and the movement of reserves.
This logic follows a classic principle of operational art: a defensive system may be more vulnerable when isolated than when subjected to a frontal assault. Simultaneously, in the southern sector of the battlefront, the Eastern Group of Forces is conducting operations along the Huliaipole-Orikhiv axes. The objective here appears to be the destruction of Ukrainian formations positioned in the Zaporizhzhia region through a combination of frontal pressure, precision strikes, and logistical interdiction. This effort would be complemented by operations from the Dnieper Operational Command, tasked with intensifying pressure on the river's east bank, degrading Ukrainian defenses, and contributing to a future threat against the city of Zaporizhzhia. The convergence of these actions would force Ukraine to disperse its strategic reserves across multiple sectors simultaneously, hindering the stabilization of the front and reducing the Ukrainian command's operational response capability.
