The War in the Ukraine

[Tam]

Konstantinovka falls to Russian hands. Putin orders attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure. Gerasimov reports to Putin, 55 strikes on Ukraine's infrastructure.

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Flags raised, two of many.

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Gas station gets taken out in Nikolaev by a Geran.

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Artillery, drone and FAB attacks now focus on Alekseev Druzhkovka. A YPR-765 gets struck. Ukrainian soldiers fleeing Konstantinovka gets holed in a building, which gets struck by Russian artillery, likely using a Krasnopol. Fabs striking Ukrainian positions in this town.

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LMUR strikes as usual, a discovered drone control point. This in the Kharkhiv region.

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Russians have taken the last remaining Ukrainian positions in Luhansk, formally completing 100% control of the Luhansk region.

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[Tam]

View attachment 177600
Russian forces are approaching Slovyansk from three directions.

There are no major cities beyond Slovyansk, nor is there adequate logistics infrastructure for the Ukrainians to maintain the front line.

It is worth noting that the battles for Slovyansk and Kramatorsk must be fought in tandem, as they share supply lines; any operation undertaken must address both, otherwise the Ukrainians could focus on defending one while the other remains secure.

From the south, they cannot simply attack via the river valley where Druzhkivka is located—approaching from Kostyantynivka—because the corridor is too narrow. A Ukrainian counterattack could encircle such a salient far more easily than the Dobropillya salient last year.

The Russians need to dramatically widen the front, launching frontal, fixing attacks from Rai-Oleksandrivka along the T0514 highway after capturing Dobropillya. This will be the most critical axis of advance, as it is where they will concentrate the "Rubicon" unit to sever supply lines to Kramatorsk; they will need to bypass Kramatorsk to the west.

They need to do the same on the northern flank: establish a broad front extending from Lyman and the area northwest of it to outflank the cities and execute the "Rubicon" maneuver to cut off Slovyansk's supply lines.

Then, they will launch frontal assaults on both cities—a strategy likely to succeed, as the Ukrainians would lack the resources to halt the Russian advance if their supply lines were severely disrupted. The Russians would effectively advance through villages and smaller towns, pushing their drone coverage as close as possible to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, and that would be the decisive factor.

The big question is whether the Ukrainians will make a concerted effort to stop them. They do not necessarily have to. Strategically, they could lose these cities and still be fine, provided they bleed the Russians as much as possible while preserving their own forces to the greatest extent they can. If they truly wanted to use the battles for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk to wear down the Russians as much as possible, it would make sense to allow the Russians to get closer to these cities in order to create the right conditions. They know how desperately Putin and Gerasimov want this; the two will be eager and impatient, and Ukraine's best opportunities to use drones to wear down the Russians lie in tactical operations related to the offensive.

It isn't just the numbers. Slavyansk-Kramatorsk, all the way to Konstantinovka, are in a river bed with a river running through all of them. Categorically, it's low ground. The Russians on the other hand, approaching from the east, are in high ground. They can take a hidden position among the forests, shoot a Kornet ATGM (range: 10km), right into the defensive positions from the city borders to the Russian front. They can grind down the defenses gradually as they approach. The gap between the city and the front are also within the indirect fire range (10km) of the 125mm smoothbore that Russian tanks use, or even the 115mm of the T-62 (9.6km). A tank firing from a height to a lower ground going to gain some extra range. Ukrainian counterattacks to the east towards Russian positions will literally be uphill. The Russians from a high point could shoot down ATGMs towards approaching convoys, much less the FPV drones and drone directed artillery and tank fire.

Furthermore the Russians coming from the north could sever the northern highway to Slavyansk while the forces coming from Konstantinovka could swing west to cut off the highways towards Kramatorsk. All the highways are already under the Russian drone umbrella, and the Russians targeting gas stations all across the front doesn't help with the situation.

 

[Randomuser]

Apparently taking Konstantinovka is quite a big deal even if its just another city. Can someone explain?

The aim is to take the Donbass Fortress Belt (Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk axis + satellites)

I guess this is why all those optics stunts like hitting buildings in Saint Petersburg ain't going to do much when the actual important parts are right here in front of you. Those are the problems you actually need to address.

 

[Tam]

Apparently taking Konstantinovka is quite a big deal even if its just another city. Can someone explain?

The aim is to take the Donbass Fortress Belt (Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk axis + satellites)

I guess this is why all those optics stunts like hitting buildings in Saint Petersburg ain't going to do much when the actual important parts are right here in front of you. Those are the problems you actually need to address.

It's a line that extends like Pokrovsk-Myrnograd-Konstantinovka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slavyansk-Liman. From south to north.

It's like Ukraine's Maginot Line. Or Great Wall.

You know what happens when the line is breached.

There's literally a highway that connects all of them like pearls in a string, creating a defensive line. The high rise apartments and industrial centers act as citadel fortresses.

You're chopping the line at each end like a giant pincer, starting from the south, and at the north. Liman by the way is also nearly gone.

Each city can store provisions and reinforcements that can be used to rapidly deploy across this line. This allows the defenders to achieve local numerical and logistical superiority over the attackers where their logistics base is much farther away.

This for the Russians it is important to capture each town or village as intact as possible so you can use it as a logistical and staging centers, not the least as drone control hubs. Areas near settlements like forest lines and patches become hosts for artillery positions and more drone control points. Once consolidated, control is very hard to dislodge, as you now have a string of overlapping circles of fire control that can concentrate along the line without need for a physically manned defensive line. Thus while the line might look leaky, it can respond quickly with voluminous firepower quickly and reactively at any given point. Ukrainian "counteroffensives" against the line, that's basically an infiltration group going as far as they can in order to plant a flag or a geolocated social media post, is only going to get the group killed once they are swarmed by drones and barrel artillery.

It's like a domino effect. For every settlement captured, start drawing radii into the map. 8km for 120mm mortar; 10km radii for ATGM, TOS, HE tank fire; 15km for non guided non assisted 122mm artillery; 20-30km for non guided non assisted 152mm artillery; 32km for Mavic reconnaissance; 40km for Grad; 47km for Krasnopol-M2; 10-50km for most FPV; up to 130km for Lancet; up to 150km for Tornado-S and certain winged FPV. See how many highways and roads these radii can cover and to where they lead to. The drone range of each circle means the potential to cut off and squeeze any logistics line, and the Russian MO is to constantly attack these logistical lines leading to the front. At the same time, the extension of the fire control zone puts more control points, command posts, deployment points, depots under fire coverage, exerting more and more pressure.

From Konstantinovka, you can support an offensive towards the West in a swing behind the line. No need to attack Druzhkovka directly but instead sever the logistics line towards Kramatorsk.

A collapse and takeover of Liman means the Russians can bring more fire control against the highway towards Slavyansk. Liman can also serve as another logistics and staging point. The forests to the south of Liman provide cover from drones and can be used as cover for an infiltration offensive, and already it appears that special forces have already infiltrated the area.


In another time and place, the driver of this lorry can be a crack drift driver. But right now he is trying to save his truck from burning by drifting it in circles trying to blow out the fire after the Russians struck a truck depot.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Russian Kh-38ML missile striking a temporary Ukrainian army base near the village of Udy in the Kharkiv region. The attack was carried out by a Su-34 fighter-bomber. The building housed soldiers from the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Army. The building was destroyed as a result of the strike, as shown at the end of the video.

 

[Tam]

The Battle of Konstantinovka shown bit by bit.

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Losivka and Zemliany Yar has fallen to the Northern Group of Forces.

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FAB with UMPK strikes on Ukrainian positions.

Kiev under missile attack.

 

[abc123]

Since when you nab people off the streets against their will. Mobilization is a mass call to arms. If you're in great shape, it is a call to the willing with enticing benefits afterwards. If you're in worse shape than that, there is mandatory draft with letters sent to homes with combat-aged men detailing legal penalties for refusal. If you're more desperate than that, you just grab people off the streets against their will and wrestle them onto the front lines, hand them a gun and hope they don't throw it away and surrender the first chance they get. Ukraine is here and I don't know if there's anywhere to go further.

I fully agree, but it's still mobilisation to defend it's own country. I agree it should go as in first two cases. Considering victims, I can totally understand that average Ukrainean (that didn't escape into EU in the first days of war anyway) might actually preffer imprisonment over death or becoming an invalid in war.
On the other hand, how is sending African, Cuban etc. mercenaries and various Chechen units any better?

 

[Tam]

I fully agree, but it's still mobilisation to defend it's own country. I agree it should go as in first two cases. Considering victims, I can totally understand that average Ukrainean (that didn't escape into EU in the first days of war anyway) might actually preffer imprisonment over death or becoming an invalid in war.
On the other hand, how is sending African, Cuban etc. mercenaries and various Chechen units any better?

Cuban volunteers might be motivated by a combination of salary, ideological reasons and anti-West. African volunteers, many Muslim, anti-West, anti-colonialist. Chechnya is part of the Russian Federation, plus being Muslim, many are anti-West, anti-Zionist, anti-Globalist, you know the drill. In fact, Chechen hardliners also want to volunteer to go to Iran if Iran was invaded.

On the other hand, how is Ukraine sending so much Columbians any better?

Ukraine loses about 800,000 people annually according to Kiev analyst Kusch. Mortality and migration are cited reasons. IMO a low ball figure.

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No intact gas station left between Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkhiv, says blogger driver.

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Poland blocking Ukraine entrance to the EU and the aid package, citing Ukraine being run by Banderaites. Poland has already blocked transfer of MiG-29s to Ukraine in exchange for drone technology.

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Another strike in Odessa, where the Russians are conducting a blockade.

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More than 200 Ukrainian locomotives were hit since the beginning of the year.

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According to the Russian MoD, Group West of Forces took Shiykovka, Nova Mir, Cherneshchina, Druzhelyubovka in the Kharkhov region. This is part of the huge Borova pocket, where Ukrainian forces are locked in a pocket with the Oskil River behind their backs. According to Sun Tzu, you don't fight with a river behind your back.

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Russians proposing a truce so they can properly send back the bodies of Ukrainian soldiers left in Konstantinovka.

 

[manqiangrexue]

I fully agree, but it's still mobilisation to defend it's own country. I agree it should go as in first two cases. Considering victims, I can totally understand that average Ukrainean (that didn't escape into EU in the first days of war anyway) might actually preffer imprisonment over death or becoming an invalid in war.
On the other hand, how is sending African, Cuban etc. mercenaries and various Chechen units any better?

How is sending mercenaries or foreign units better? It's totally on the other side of the spectrum. Rather than dragging citizens off the streets to die in the front lines, you are paying foreigners to face the danger for you. That's rich fat man style fighting, though Russia uses plenty of its own men too... but not before sending in the prison population LOL

 

[Nautilus]

Ukraine hits oil terminal in St. Petersburg

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