The War in the Ukraine

tamsen_ikard said:

So Russia will tax utterly destroyed land where no economic activity can happen for another generation? And Yeah, sounds like a great plan.

Moreover, they are essentially gaining maybe a couple 100 sq miles per year. In that rate they will take 50 years to even get to Dnieper river, let alone crossing it and then taking over central/western ukraine.

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By Russian and neutral mapping, they gained around 2500 square kilometers last year. In some months they were gaining around 500-600 sq.km. The Ukrainians have a different mapping and they mostly tend to mark things as grey zone. They only admitted to the loss of Pokrovsk over six months after Russian units raised flags all over the city and neutral mappers already called it. This year it appears slower and that's because Ukraine no longer has this Kursk offensive as an overhang which sucks and bled their forces.

Personally I believe they will settle when Zelensky's demands to freeze conflict on the contact line crosses with Russian position for Ukraine to give up the Donbass into an intersection. Meaning when those two requirements are one and the same. That is, the fall of the entire Donbass. This also means the Russians will take extra territory in Sumy, Kharkhiv and other regions as buffers.

With Konstantinovka now literally doomed day by day, this leaves you with Dobropillia in the Center Group, Druzkivka-Kramatorsk-Slavansk in the South Group. All these urban settlements are now in FPV drone range and artillery ranges, with outskirts within indirect tank fire range. Liman is falling just as quick, which means the Russians can also approach Slavyansk from the north, and there's many forests in the area where Russian infiltration groups can insert themselves. As I said before, and will say again, forest and urban fighting is mano-o-mano fragfest. Just boots, guns, and skill. The side with the numbers and retaining the most skilled and experienced fighters will take it here.

Personally I also believe the war may end before the end of Trump's term. It's very likely at this point, a Democrat president maybe elected next, and Putin's best chances of ending the war lays best within Trump's term.

tamsen_ikard said:

Its about the hearts and minds. Ukraine is mainly relying on the psychological aspects of the war and focusing in Russian people to give up due to escalating damages, economic hardship and overall sense of hopelessness.

The war will be decided not on who take more land, but who will give up first.

Ukraine likely will not give up due to extreme backing from the west. But Russia does not have unlimited patience, money or willpower due to being the aggressor.

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Your posts like much in the West (or East) do not seem to understand Slavic mentality and to be honest, so did I. Even the Russians and Ukrainians themselves grossly underestimate each other, that each is a mirror of the other, and fail to grasp this basic mentality. And that is they all would rather raise a big middle finger, say a big F U and fight to the death. (And so yeah, this will continue to spiral downward.)

tokenanalyst said:

Interesting, but how its translate to the battlefield? The Ukrainians for a few years have been hitting stuff in Russia including some energy installations but that has not resulted in gains in the Donbass region not a single meter of Ukraine own territory has been regain by Zelensky, he has been losing more and more towns. What this has resulted is in Russia hitting in Ukraine where they suspect the Ukraines are building their weapons. This will likely result in escalatory and bigger missile and drone attacks into Ukraine.

That is one the problem I had with US in Iran. The US was able to hit a lot stuff in Iran. More than the Ukranians could ever hit in Russia but that didn't translate into even tactical victories let alone strategic ones. Russia is many many times bigger than Iran.

Let see what happens.​

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Its just optics again.

A lot of people call that decision when Ukraine invaded Russia really dumb. But thats in hindsight. At the time it was invading everyone was laughing at how Russia was somehow getting invaded.

War in reality much like engineering, product development etc which isn't flashy. Its a really boring grindy process. Most people just want to see the end result and thats it.

We are too used to seeing USA and their operations that only take a few months. Hell Iran already feels like a grind and it started only in March. Imagine 4 years of that stuff.

Randomuser said:

Its just optics again.

A lot of people call that decision when Ukraine invaded Russia really dumb. But thats in hindsight. At the time it was invading everyone was laughing at how Russia was somehow getting invaded.

War in reality much like engineering, product development etc which isn't flashy. Its a really boring grindy process. Most people just want to see the end result and thats it.

We are too used to seeing USA and their operations that only take a few months. Hell Iran already feels like a grind and it started only in March. Imagine 4 years of that stuff.

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The problem with US and Iran is that the US is not from the region, they don´t own a country close or better that share a land border with Iran. so was trying to fight a protracted war from fixed bases who are very constrained in space and aircraft carriers against a country entrenched on its own territory. In the Russia and Ukraine war both countries are entrenched in their own territories fighting closer to their land borders.

Randomuser said:

Its just optics again.

A lot of people call that decision when Ukraine invaded Russia really dumb. But thats in hindsight. At the time it was invading everyone was laughing at how Russia was somehow getting invaded.

War in reality much like engineering, product development etc which isn't flashy. Its a really boring grindy process. Most people just want to see the end result and thats it.

We are too used to seeing USA and their operations that only take a few months. Hell Iran already feels like a grind and it started only in March. Imagine 4 years of that stuff.

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There is also the reason why they are fighting for.
The US was acting as Linchpin of Israel goals, Iran was fighting for its survival.
Russia is fighting for not having NATO in their borders and to avoid the ethic cleansing of Russians in the Donbass.
Ukraine is fighting for its territorial integrity and to be integrated into NATO.
The states are higher.

New angle shows that the refinery silo roof toss in Moscow was caused by a misfired AA missile.

I think these attacks on moscow are actually hurting a low more than Russia will admit. Russia is in a quandry. I think they need to speed up their advance. The balance is shifting against them now. The biggest sign is Lukashenko trying to make amends with Zelensky. Lukashenko knows the winds are shifting.

Russian flags are raised in the central part of Lyman after flags were raised in the northern and southern districts. The insertion at the southern district indicates the Russians have control of the forest patch south of the city.


Yurkovka and Artema said to have fallen to the Southern Group of forces.


Will await more information.

The Ukrainian attacks against Moscow is essentially a parallel to the German V1 and V2 attacks against London where the side loosing hopelessly badly on the battlefield resort to increasingly desperate and costly attacks against symbolic targets for the sake of optics to maintain the illusion of an even fight, but in reality all it does is hasten its demise by diverting and wasting resources that are increasingly desperately needed at the front.

Russians blow up their own oil storage tank by air defenses.