You miss a specific difference: Russia can gain land. With land, Russia can gradually use the new tax base to cover the costs. Meanwhile, after the war ended, many Russian soldiers must have demobilised and lived in Ukraine. Which means the new generation of Ukrainians is impossible to fight against Russia because their fathers are highly likely to be Russian. But the US is impossible to make Iran become America's land; that's the difference between a farce and a real conquest war.
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The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
So Russia will tax utterly destroyed land where no economic activity can happen for another generation? And Yeah, sounds like a great plan.You miss a specific difference: Russia can gain land. With land, Russia can gradually use the new tax base to cover the costs. Meanwhile, after the war ended, many Russian soldiers must have demobilised and lived in Ukraine. Which means the new generation of Ukrainians is impossible to fight against Russia because their fathers are highly likely to be Russian. But the US is impossible to make Iran become America's land; that's the difference between a farce and a real conquest war.
Moreover, they are essentially gaining maybe a couple 100 sq miles per year. In that rate they will take 50 years to even get to Dnieper river, let alone crossing it and then taking over central/western ukraine.
Although I am not a war history specialist, it seems to me that no war can be modelled by a linear equation.So Russia will tax utterly destroyed land where no economic activity can happen for another generation? And Yeah, sounds like a great plan.
Moreover, they are essentially gaining maybe a couple 100 sq miles per year. In that rate they will take 50 years to even get to Dnieper river, let alone crossing it and then taking over central/western ukraine.
This war has gone on for too long. I am getting so bored without a result. Guys what are your predictions, will Russia overtake and get a major victory. Will they have to reluctantly sign for peace, maybe even losing crimea etc? I hope something changes soon, this isn't good for anyone, this endless thugging it out
To keep you up to date, the cities of Konstantinovka and Lyman are now in a critical stage and fall is imminent. The Ukrainian defenses in these areas have effectively collapsed.
It's easier for the Ukrainians to defend small settlements and open fields where they can use drones. But in forests and urban environments, it's mano o mano fragfest, and that's where the side with the most boots and most experienced fighters will win.
Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzkivka, Dobropillia, Orekhiv are all within FPV drone and artillery range, even in indirect tank fire range. This is what I call the Dead Zone. These cities are now evacuated or in the process of doing so. The defense industries within Kramatorsk has been shut down and moved elsewhere.
Huge pocket in the Borova area north of Lyman and south of Kupyansk, it's said there are 30 AFU battalions trapped there with the river at their back. I do think 30 might be an exaggeration but no doubt there are AFU units trapped there.
There's some reports that the Russians are jamming Starlink. Will see what new information will come up on this.
Russians have effectively wiped out all the gas stations in the Sumy region. Expect other regions to be next.
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Pay raises, fixed terms, and more foreigners: Ukraine announces landmark military service reforms
Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy boosts army wages and seeks foreign recruits to counter manpower shortage
Regards,
Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy boosts army wages and seeks foreign recruits to counter manpower shortage
Regards,
Lancets are hitting Ukrainians fuel tankers now. Fuel tankers on both sides including civilian are regarded as fair game.
Zu-23-2 mounted on either a BMP-1 or an MT-LB. Mobile fire teams have been among the best effective anti drone measures even though it sounds old fashioned WW2ish and downright hardcore. It takes equipment that would have been ignored for their vintage and suddenly turns them relevant in the most modern of warfare. The "targeting sight" is just a smartphone with a zoom camera and an app.
Every type of equipment are being used such as setting a cluster of AKs, to Brownings and even Maxims, to KVRs, NSVs, to Kords. As a note, mobile fire teams themselves are often subjected to drone attacks, so these battles are two way.
Zu-23-2 mounted on either a BMP-1 or an MT-LB. Mobile fire teams have been among the best effective anti drone measures even though it sounds old fashioned WW2ish and downright hardcore. It takes equipment that would have been ignored for their vintage and suddenly turns them relevant in the most modern of warfare. The "targeting sight" is just a smartphone with a zoom camera and an app.
Every type of equipment are being used such as setting a cluster of AKs, to Brownings and even Maxims, to KVRs, NSVs, to Kords. As a note, mobile fire teams themselves are often subjected to drone attacks, so these battles are two way.
Sorry, but this sounds like copium. How much land Russia gains per year? How much money in taxes can be raised from bombed ruins with zero infrastructure, no population and economic activity? Russian budget deficit for 2026 is projected to be at 6 trillion roubles now, more than 1.5x higher than the 3.8 trillion deficit that was estimated during planning.You miss a specific difference: Russia can gain land. With land, Russia can gradually use the new tax base to cover the costs. Meanwhile, after the war ended, many Russian soldiers must have demobilised and lived in Ukraine. Which means the new generation of Ukrainians is impossible to fight against Russia because their fathers are highly likely to be Russian. But the US is impossible to make Iran become America's land; that's the difference between a farce and a real conquest war.
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Sorry, but this sounds like copium. How much land Russia gains per year? How much money in taxes can be raised from bombed ruins with zero infrastructure, no population and economic activity? Russian budget deficit for 2026 is projected to be at 6 trillion roubles now, more than 1.5x higher than the 3.8 trillion deficit that was estimated during planning.
The Donbass, both Donetsk and Luhansk, accounts for 70 percent of Ukraine's mineral wealth. As of 2025, over 60 percent are inaccessible and this figure is now well over that. Over 60 percent of Ukraine's coal reserves, and over 52 percent of critical and rare earths and minerals including Lithium. Let's not mention the agriculture alone.
The area the Russians took at the end of 2022 held $12.5 trillion worth of coal and natural gas.
Black Sea and Sea of Azov has over 2 trillion cubic meters of natural gas.
The Mineral Wars - How Ukraine’s Critical Minerals Will Fuel Future Geopolitical Rivalries - CIRSD
Many of these battlegrounds are actually mines and mining towns including a portion of it:
Avdiivka
Ugledar
Bilhorivka
Shevchenko (South Donbass, Lithium mine)
Pokrovsk
Myrnograd
Rodinsky
You can understand why Zelensky wants to keep a hold of it. If they lose this area, the loss is unrecoverable and will forever haunt the future course of Ukraine.
Sorry, but this sounds like copium. How much land Russia gains per year? How much money in taxes can be raised from bombed ruins with zero infrastructure, no population and economic activity? Russian budget deficit for 2026 is projected to be at 6 trillion roubles now, more than 1.5x higher than the 3.8 trillion deficit that was estimated during planning.
As was already mentioned, Russia faces the challenge of maintaining a stable economy under massive sanctions and prosecuting a war. We can see the thinking of the Russian elite when they called the invasion a "Special Military Operation" - a precise usage of military force to accomplish a political goal. They thought that the Ukrainians would come to the negotiating table and that both sides would hatch out a solution, albeit one in Moscow's favor.
They did not expect Ukraine to wage total war, effectively destroying its demographic and industrial base, whilst being funded by NATO. The combination of devastating sanctions and a war that they did not comprehend in its entirety (who could), forced them to recalculate.
On the economic front, contrary to proclamations of collapse, they have faired really well given the circumstances. The elites were forced to invest in their own economy and shift their business outlook eastwards.
On the military front, they have to get through industrial fortresses laden with underground networks and bunkers, manned by men (and increasingly women) who are paid by Brussels. Ukraine does not face the same economic constraints that Russia or any other country would when fighting a war, in the sense that their only job is to worry about the military. Russia can try to break through these fortresses by massively ramping up the army, but would face economic constraints and Ukraine could enlist its last brackets of men in response.
So they've decided to play it slow, conserving casualties and economic stress. The war would probably end when the AfD come to power in Germany + Reform in the UK + Le Pen in France. Of course it could end earlier than this, and we can see the Europeans attempting to make connections to Moscow. The combination of a rapidly declining industrial base + a weakening Ukr (see youth conscription debate) + America removing forces in Europe will be factors in ending the war. Or Ukraine could just collapse.
For other countries looking to get fight wars in the 21st century, blitzkrieg will be an attractive option, given the Ukraine example. The US tried to do some stupid form of this by relying on airpower and the brains of octogenarians so it doesn't count.