The War in the Ukraine

MortyandRick said:

Those pipelines are not yet operational. Difficult to know how much Russia can take advantage of the harmuz closure given attacks on their energy infrastructure. Btw Ukraine has attacked all the way to Urals

My concern is the front line drone tech gap, or supposed drone gap which can inflict casualties on Russian front line troops, halting their advance.

From Gemini and Kimi. Although take it with a grain of salt because it's heavily biased toward western and Ukrainian sources

As of late April 2026, the situation on the front is characterized by a high-intensity "tug-of-war" where massive Russian strikes are being met with significant Ukrainian drone and tactical advantages.
The Kremlin has launched what they call their **"Spring-Summer 2026 Offensive"** (officially starting around mid-March), but independent assessments suggest it has largely stalled due to staggering equipment and personnel losses.
### **1. Territory and Operations (Current Status)**
* **Stalled Momentum:** In the last four weeks, Russia actually suffered a **net loss** of territory (about 2–4 square miles).
* **Key Sectors:** * **Pokrovsk Direction:** Russia has made minor tactical advances here, though at an extreme human cost.
* **Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka:** Ukrainian forces have successfully pushed back and advanced in this tactical area.
* **Kharkiv/Northeast:** Russian recruitment rates are falling while casualty rates are increasing, leading to a visible slowdown in their ability to conduct high-intensity "wave" assaults.
### **2. The Aerial War (The "666" Strike)**
One of the most notable events occurred just yesterday (**April 25, 2026**). Russia launched a massive, coordinated strike involving **666 drones and missiles**—the fourth such strike of over 500 vehicles in April alone.
* **Primary Target:** Dnipro City was the main focus, enduring over 20 hours of bombardment.
* **Interception Success:** Ukraine’s air defense has evolved significantly. In March 2026, they intercepted **92%** of Russian drones, a massive leap from the 50-60% rates seen in early 2025. However, Russian ballistic missiles remain a major threat, with zero interceptions of the 12 launched in March.
### **3. The "Drone Gap"**
There is a growing consensus that Ukraine has achieved a **technological advantage** in drone warfare.
* **Hungarian/Druzhba Incident:** Ukraine recently blew up a pump station on the Druzhba pipeline, disrupting oil deliveries to Hungary, shortly after restoring the line.
* **Battlefield Air Interdiction (BAI):** Ukrainian "Unmanned Systems Forces" (USF) are now performing over **11,000 combat missions per day**.
* **Internal Russian Friction:** Reports suggest Russian Defense Minister Belousov privately informed Putin that the situation is "critical" due to Ukraine's drone superiority.

**The Bottom Line:** Russia is throwing its weight behind a massive spring push, but they are currently trading enormous quantities of men and machines for negligible territorial gains. The front is moving from a war of maneuver to a war of **technological attrition**, and currently, the Kremlin is scrambling to bridge the "drone gap."

Click to expand...

You're not keeping up.

Ukraine only turned areas into grey zones. It failed to consolidate it's counterattacks in Dnipro and Kupyansk, and now both are in the process of being rolled back. You can check @historylegends video for that.

March was operational pause for the Russians due to Rasputista. Ukrainian counterattacks came at a heavy cost due to the lack of cover in Zaporyzhia. Plenty of video footage on that, not postable due to final living moments caught on camera.

I normally won't post map updates. Here's an example.



His methodology is simple. He overlaps both Rybar and Deep State UA maps over each other, and adds confirmed OSINT geolocations. Grey zones represent map overlaps.

Russians are moving west of Hulialpolye, doing a huge border incursion in both Sumy and Kharkhiv regions, sometimes taking in as many as 50km a day. Konstantinovka is being stormed. Hryshyne has fallen to the Russians despite fierce Ukrainian resistance.

Last body exchange was 1000 Ukrainian bodies to 41 Russians.

As for the "technology superiority" how can you quantify that? During the defense of Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian footage I observed attacking Russian columns were no doubtedly using wireless drones. In comparison, the large majority of Russian FPV drone attacks were fiberoptic and deep within Ukrainian lines aimed at their logistics. At least, if it wasn't a Molinya loitering drone. Which is technically better? Wireless drones or fiberoptic?

A large portion of Ukrainian drone attacks are Baba Yagas and R18. But these are frequently shot down by FPV drones, a $1000 drone taking out a $10,000 heavy drone. Hexacopters are also taken out by snipers with thermals and using Zu-23-2 machine guns and Yelka drones. FPV drones take out Ukrainian recon drones, tons of footage on that produced everyday, and it is claimed that a Leleka-100 costs as much as $100,000. A Geran is said to cost around $30,000-40,000 here.

Saudi Arabia brought some Ukrainian 'experts' with interceptor drones to help defend refineries. They were sent back after Iranian Shaheds got through and still managed to hit Saudi infrastructure. Shaheds are not as improved as Gerans on top of that, with Gerans now using optical cameras and jet engines.

Ukrainians claim success with footage of hitting Molinya production sites with drones, yet we still see Molinya drones abundantly everyday non stop for weeks and months. Molinya drones are being targeted because they are notorious for kamekaze attacks on Ukrainian drone operator sites and troop assembly points which happen constantly everyday. Each is a winged drone done cheaply like a school project but can hold the equivalent of a TM-62 antitank mine that has as much explosive as a 152mm shell. Such a drone is difficult to control unless it has a sophisticated FCS to compensate. These drones increasingly feature a fiberoptic connection and has a reconnaissance variant.

Last few days ago, Russians launched a massive 666 drone attack. The amount of hits observed challenge claimed interception rates.


Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026.

Yesterday day and night, the Aerospace Forces and missile forces attacked targets in the Donbass, Sumy, Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and Kherson regions (the entire range of weapons), Brovary, Kiev region (Geran-3), Chernigov, Nezhin and Gorodnya, Chernigov region, Odessa and Ilyichevsk, Odessa region, Korosten, Zhytomyr region (Gerani/Gerber).

April 25, 2026.

• 07:45 Dnepropetrovsk - explosion. Geranium/Gerbera.
• 08:10 Gorodnya, Chernihiv Oblast, and Dnepropetrovsk - explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.
• 10:10 Donbass - explosions. UMPC.
• 10:40 Kharkiv Oblast - explosions. UMPC. Borovaya area.
• 11:10 Dnepropetrovsk - explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.
• 11:30 Zaporizhzhia Oblast - explosions. UMPC.
• 12:45 Dnepropetrovsk - explosion. Geranium/Gerbera.
• 12:59 Berestin, Kharkov region - explosion. Geran-3.
• 14:30 Chernihiv - explosion. Geran-3.
• 16:00 Sumy Oblast - explosions. UMPC.
• 16:15 Brovary, Kyiv region - explosion. Geran-3.
• 16:25 in Snigirevka, Kherson region - an explosion occurred. Geranium/Gerbera.
• 17:05 Donbas - explosions. UMPC.
• 17:40 Zaporizhzhia Oblast - explosions. UMPC.
• 17:40-17:45 Dnepropetrovsk - explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.
• 17:55 Donbas - explosions. UMPC.
• 18:20 Petropavlovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - explosion. Geranium/Gerbera.
• 19:18 Dnepropetrovsk - explosion. Geranium/Gerbera.
• 21:00 Donbass - explosions. UMPC. Limansky district.
• 21:15 Veliky Burluk and the outskirts of Prikolotny, Kharkov region - explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.
• 21:20 Donbas - explosions. UMPC. Druzhkovka.
• 21:35 Kharkov area - explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.
• 21:37 Nearby Nizhyn, Chernihiv region - explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.
• 22:00 Donbas - explosions. UMPC. Pokrovsky district.
• 22:10 Balakleya, Kharkiv Oblast - explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.
• 22:40 The surrounding areas of Pavlograd and Chernihiv are explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.
• 22:45 Zaporizhzhia Oblast - explosions. UMPC.
• 23:10-23:15 Dnepropetrovsk - explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.

26 April 2026.

• 00: 30 Kharkov area - explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.
• 02:00 Zaporizhzhia - explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.
• 02:30-02:35 Ilyichevsk, Odessa region - explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.
• 03:00 Surroundings of Ovidiopol, Odessa region, and Krivoy Rog - explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.
• 03:15 Sumy region - explosions. UMPC.
• 03:20 Donbass - explosions. UMPC.
• 03:20 Odessa - explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.
• 03:25 Kharkiv Oblast - explosions. UMPC.
• 03:25 Ilyichevsk, Odessa region - explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.
• 04:25 Krivoy Rog - explosion. Geranium/Gerbera.
• 05:15 Donbas and Zaporizhzhia Oblast - explosions. UMPC.
• 05:35 Chernihiv and the surrounding area of Korosten, Zhytomyr region - explosions. Gerani/Gerbers.
• 05:50 Zaporizhzhia Oblast - explosions. UMPC. Neighborhood of Upper Tersa.
• 05:55 Krivoy Rog - explosion. Geranium/Gerbera.
• 06:20 Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - explosions. UMPC.
• 06:33 Krivoy Rog - explosion. Geran-3.

Geran strike today with optical TV camera against a Ukrainian substation. These cameras turn a Geran into a massive FPV drone, although they are AI piloted.


If Ukrainians have drone superiority, why are they always still being hit by FABs? FAB attacks are always prescouted by Russian drones, then observed by other drones as FABs strike and then later more drones assess the damage.

FAB-1500 strike at Konstantinovka today.

With regards to the pipelines, Power of Siberia 1 delivered 38 billion cubic meters to China in 2025, and is operational since 2019. You're saying it's not operational?

Tam said:

With regards to the pipelines, Power of Siberia 1 delivered 38 billion cubic meters to China in 2025, and is operational since 2019. You're saying it's not operational?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

No, I mean the Power of Siberia 2 and third China-Russia pipeline is the Far East pipeline that goes from Sakhalin region to Heliojiang, China. The sooner they get it going the better.

Good or hear Russia has been utilizing AI drones en mass.

Too bad China doesn't export drone killers to Russia. Would have been good to test their efficacy and gain experience like US is getting.

MortyandRick said:

No, I mean the Power of Siberia 2 and third China-Russia pipeline is the Far East pipeline that goes from Sakhalin region to Heliojiang, China. The sooner they get it going the better.

Good or hear Russia has been utilizing AI drones en mass.

Too bad China doesn't export drone killers to Russia. Would have been good to test their efficacy and gain experience like US is getting.

Click to expand...

There is a report of a Chinese laser device being tested and used. With the news blog scrolling so fast daily, I don't think I can find it anymore. It might have been posted here also somewhere.

Drone killers don't work against faster drones. The higher the target drone flies, the harder it is to reach with a bunch of small propellers with batteries against something with wings and a piston engine. Hence the success of drone interceptors are limited against high flying recon drones unless they can catch the recon drone in a low altitude. Sometimes the recon drone has to fly low because targets on the ground are small and can be well camouflaged, you cannot spot them properly due to atmospheric haze. You need to look closer.

Some Ukrainians are masters in laying camo and you need a slow flying fiberoptic drone to discover the hidden sites and use multiple fiberoptic drones to destroy. Which the Russians do.

Ukraine's heavy use of heavy hexacopters like R18s and Baba Yagas provide easy and plenty of opportunities for the Russians to hit them with FPV drones. You are trading a $1000 FPV drone to a $10,000 agri-drone modeled after a DJI Matrice 3000. There's a reason why the Russians don't use heavy copters as much as the Ukrainians do, is because of their skepticism towards it. I see footage of Baba Yagas being traced back to their HQs, leading to the discovery of their launching and control point. Soon, the spot gets visited by Russian fiber optic drones, or gets Krasnopoled, or FABed, or LMURed, or a couple of Molinya drones.

Imitation is the best and the gold standard for a successful tactic or weapons system. Remember when the Germans freaked out when they encountered the T-34 and it's slopped armor? They quickly rushed to copy the idea. Copying is a universality in warfare. Romans started to copy cataphracts after the Sassanids trashed Roman infantry with them.

Ukrainians copying Russian infiltration tactics. If Russian infiltration tactics are bad and leading to tons of Russian lives being lost, why is man power starved Ukraine copying them? Compared to using NATO armored tactics, the same infiltration tactics served back to the Russians, had the most success so far in Dnipro and Kupyansk. But the NATO style column tactics used in the Pokrovsk region turned out to be a disaster. To be fair, there are also Russian traditionalists who still want to try the old methods and gets badly stomped doing that. More tactical progressively commanders are getting much better results.

Ukraine is also copying Lancets and Geran designs. Shows those work. Even the US has its own Shahed now, the LUCAS, which was employed against Iran.

Russia using Starlink on their long range drones before the links were cut off shows this tech works. Russians are developing and may have already employed their own mini Starlinks due to we are seeing optically guided drones once again deep into Ukrainian territory.

US reviving Copperheads and sending them to Ukraine. This shows that laser guided artillery such as with Krasnopols does work, especially if guided by drones.

GPS guided munitions work. HIMARS, Gerans, GPS guided drones. GPS guided MLRS like Tornado-S.

On the other hand, GPS guided artillery don't seem to be, despite the West enthusiasm to it. The Russians don't bother with their own copy of Excalibur shells or use GPS guidance on GRAD rockets like the RM-70 Vampire. Turns out the Russians use EW to turn the shells and rockets off course. This does not work as well with bigger munitions like FABs or Hammers because the inertia of the weapon prevents it from being turned away in time unless you can interfere far ahead in the trajectory but which requires a more powerful EW system. However EW systems are themselves electronically detected and visually spotted and can be attacked by fiberoptic or optically guided drones.

AI is a 50/50. Russians use some AI in their drones when it was discovered from fragments of a Lancet, there's an nVidia chip. However such chips can make a drone very expensive and a substantial loss if they are intercepted. AI is not perfect, if you remember the Ukrainian sea drone that infiltrated the Russian dock then went ahead to miss the submarine nearby. From the footage I see some of these AI guided drones were not heading to their proper mark but the footage gets edited to make you perceive the miss didn't happen.

Ukrainians copying the use of ATVs and motorcycles. Russians copying the use of pickups. No one on both sides like to use armored vehicles anymore. They want to jump out of the vehicle ASAP and shoot the drone. It doesn't always work but they rather take their chances on it. Ukrainians oddly leave the doors of BMPs, APCs, IFVs and MRAPs open knowing that a drone will come in and blow the vehicle up. It seems it is deliberate and they want to get rid of these forced upon them.

Difference of Ukrainian mapping:

Drone OSINT sighting and geolocation of both regular, reconnaissance and infiltration troop movement. Colored to one side.
Area is present with bubbles of their own troops. Colored grey.

Difference of Russian mapping.

Drone OSINT and geolocation of reconnaissance and infiltration troop movement. Colored to grey.
Drone OSINT and geolocation of regular troop movement, colored to one side.
Area present with bubbles of their own troops. Colored grey.

Reality.

No one really stays on the front lines, because these zones are dead zones. Anyone staying there are nothing but drone food in either side. Reconnaissance, infiltration, assault and storm troopers reach to a certain area, do their photo opportunity, then head back. No one stays. This means the next morning, a team from the other side will come and take their photo opportunity and leave, then the other side will do the same the next day after.

Ukraine now going into social media blackouts on severe conflict areas. It seems this works for the Russians and Ukrainians are doing the same, see Kupyansk. If you don't hear news from a certain area, it's guaranteed to be very active with lots of troop fragging going on. Bloggers starving for news to get social media views need to kiss their xxxs goodbye.

TK3600 said:

Is AI slops fit for the thread?

Click to expand...

AI slop is not allowed @MortyandRick @Tam because of hallucinations and unable to trace to original sources.

Footage of Ukrainian E-300 Enterprise and FP-2 long-range kamikaze UAVs being destroyed by Russian interceptor drones of an unknown model. The location of the footage is unknown. The E-300 Enterprise is essentially an aircraft converted into a kamikaze UAV, and is frequently used by the Ukrainian military.

This is the first instance of three X-39 LMUR missiles being used simultaneously in a single town during military operations in Ukraine. The video shows an M-28 helicopter using an X-39 missile to destroy three buildings housing Ukrainian service members and drone operators from the 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade. The video was filmed in the village of Senkovo in the Kharkiv region.

An April video shows the destruction of heavy Ukrainian hexacopters by Russian FPV interceptor drones. Hexacopters are expensive, heavy agricultural drones of various models, modified for military use.
Hexacopters are most often used as FPV drone carriers, communication relays, or bombers. Military hexacopters in Ukraine and Russia are called "Baba Yaga" drones, after a character from Russian fairy tales.

Footage of a Russian FAB-3000 aerial bomb striking a temporary deployment site in the village of Kostyantynivka. The building was defended by soldiers from the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Army. The precision strike was carried out by a Su-34 frontline fighter-bomber.

Footage of a Russian FPV drone striking a Ukrainian unmanned boat of an unknown model. The video was filmed in Crimean waters. Judging by the video, the Ukrainian unmanned boat is equipped with containers for launching FPV drones. As a result of the Russian FPV drone strike, the Ukrainian naval drone was destroyed.