The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
I thought Putin needed to mobilize to win but in the end of the day, I'm just a civilian playing armchair general from the safety and comfort of my home.
What I'm trying to say is I don't know anything.
The Russians know they are weak......conventionally when compared to US and now China. They don't have the economic power house and industry to produce gears in great numbers and quality like the current superpowers. In fact, the Russians are punching above their weight and have achieved quite a bit of mayhem (and influence) globally with their minuscule military prowess. Syria, Georgia, Sahara Africa, etc.
I now realized that if they declared war and mobilized completely to fight Ukraine, it would be the most foolish thing Putin could have done. It will ruin Russia economically and financially and create societal pressures for Putin. Wars are never good for an economy. In fact, those who benefit from it are those supplying the war combatants with weapons and food and staying out. (Lol it's why Putin is calling this a special operation...giving himself some wiggle room to squash any domestic criticism.)
Point is this is an attrition war and infrastructure war. It will last probably 2 years; more like 5 years if Russia decides to take Kyiv. Russia can slowly produce quality weapons during this time and continue to grind out and destroy Ukraine infrastructure. They have China as a source for any sub-systems they need and all the natural resources that the Earth can give. It doesn't matter if Ukraine continuous to receive 1960s artillery and a few dozen armor vehicles from the West. They won't go anywhere if they have no fuel to drive them and that's what they Russians continue to pummel. The East of Ukraine is lost strategic. Only in time that territories there will slowly fall to the Russians.
Russia's actions are already having huge effects on Ukraine. There's a massive inflation in Ukraine, massive fuel shortages and the country is effective blockade. They can't export anything, only by land through the West and I think they don't want to give all their food away as well. They are constantly demanding financial assistance so they can keep paying troops.
Russia can't wage a US high-tech kinda of war that we've all been spoiled to so they will wage a Russian-style war. They will grind Ukraine out slowly, meanwhile making sure their not-so-war doesn't create huge economic stress back home. At the same time they will sit back and watch as Ukraine benefactors (US and Europe) enter a couple years of high-inflation and economic stress and recessions. Russia's actions will bring about the end of the US dollar reserve-system. It was foolish of the West to wage that financial war on Russia and now their actions will backfire as many countries slowly adopt non-dollar payment systems. The trust in the dollar was the US greatest weapon and Biden completely ruined it.
Russia will come out on top of this and they will turn Ukraine into a landlocked state after ruining its infrastructure and economically. They will seize a chunk of Eastern Ukraine as well. Russia will deal with their losses like they've always done in other wars and keep pushing.
This war will go on for a long-long time. Possibly 7 years. I suggest you move on and don't spend nearly all your time following it.
Until then keep your ears open for major developments.
What I'm trying to say is I don't know anything.
The Russians know they are weak......conventionally when compared to US and now China. They don't have the economic power house and industry to produce gears in great numbers and quality like the current superpowers. In fact, the Russians are punching above their weight and have achieved quite a bit of mayhem (and influence) globally with their minuscule military prowess. Syria, Georgia, Sahara Africa, etc.
I now realized that if they declared war and mobilized completely to fight Ukraine, it would be the most foolish thing Putin could have done. It will ruin Russia economically and financially and create societal pressures for Putin. Wars are never good for an economy. In fact, those who benefit from it are those supplying the war combatants with weapons and food and staying out. (Lol it's why Putin is calling this a special operation...giving himself some wiggle room to squash any domestic criticism.)
Point is this is an attrition war and infrastructure war. It will last probably 2 years; more like 5 years if Russia decides to take Kyiv. Russia can slowly produce quality weapons during this time and continue to grind out and destroy Ukraine infrastructure. They have China as a source for any sub-systems they need and all the natural resources that the Earth can give. It doesn't matter if Ukraine continuous to receive 1960s artillery and a few dozen armor vehicles from the West. They won't go anywhere if they have no fuel to drive them and that's what they Russians continue to pummel. The East of Ukraine is lost strategic. Only in time that territories there will slowly fall to the Russians.
Russia's actions are already having huge effects on Ukraine. There's a massive inflation in Ukraine, massive fuel shortages and the country is effective blockade. They can't export anything, only by land through the West and I think they don't want to give all their food away as well. They are constantly demanding financial assistance so they can keep paying troops.
Russia can't wage a US high-tech kinda of war that we've all been spoiled to so they will wage a Russian-style war. They will grind Ukraine out slowly, meanwhile making sure their not-so-war doesn't create huge economic stress back home. At the same time they will sit back and watch as Ukraine benefactors (US and Europe) enter a couple years of high-inflation and economic stress and recessions. Russia's actions will bring about the end of the US dollar reserve-system. It was foolish of the West to wage that financial war on Russia and now their actions will backfire as many countries slowly adopt non-dollar payment systems. The trust in the dollar was the US greatest weapon and Biden completely ruined it.
Russia will come out on top of this and they will turn Ukraine into a landlocked state after ruining its infrastructure and economically. They will seize a chunk of Eastern Ukraine as well. Russia will deal with their losses like they've always done in other wars and keep pushing.
This war will go on for a long-long time. Possibly 7 years. I suggest you move on and don't spend nearly all your time following it.
Until then keep your ears open for major developments.
this is an interesting idea. So, US basically wants to use Ukraine to bleed Russia out. But what if it's actually the other way around, that Russia is sacrificing troops and equipment in order to damage the civil infrastructure of US/EU itself, not just Ukrainian infrastructure directly, but their entire economic system as a whole?
If that is the case, then that may explain why Russia is going for a war of attrition with the minimum possible investment while provoking maximum investment from the west. It would explain why they'd rather keep their early gains and then go for the attrition game i.e. they'll try to minimize own losses and maximize opponent losses without necessarily taking ground quickly.
After the failure of a chance at quick victory through maneuver, the next best thing is to inflict maximum damage at lowest cost. West can't quit. If they quit Ukraine collapses. If they don't quit they'll get attritioned indirectly while Russia runs more or less as normal.
Exactly.
For example,
One of the un-talked about consequences of this war already (which I mentioned briefly in my post) is the end-of the Petro-dollar system and possibly the beginning of other fiat-currency commodity backed systems. Watch out for gold-standard backed Yuan in the future or Petro-Yuan. This will ruin the US more than any imaginary Russian invasion of NATO (btw please guys stop these stupid hypotheticals. They are very stupid).
The signs of crack in the West will begin when the EU stops talking about "impossing a Russian oil embargo" and secretly allows govts. to open accounts in Russian banks to pay for Russian commodities in Rubles.
US has really f**ked up on this one in Ukraine. They thought they would get Europe (not including UK) to complete fall in line if they start some tensions in Ukraine. In the end what will end up happening is the economic stress in Europe will divide them more. UK will always follow the US so forget about them, but there was a time when Germany and France were seriously challenging US dominance of control in EU.
The only consolation US will get from all this is Finland and Sweden will officially join NATO. To be frank, those two have always been unofficially part of NATO. It's just now official on paper.
If you count Russian, LPR, and DPR losses you probably are not far from the actual casualty numbers. Actual Russian infantry losses are probably like half that.
Some people are claiming Ukraine is having a 6:1 infantry loss ratio. There are plenty of videos of Russian follow up units carting out dead Ukrainian soldiers and burying them in mass graves. In Mariupol there were dead Ukrainian troop corpses piled up inside houses.
I have also seen videos of dead Russian troops. But those seem to be ambushes of at most like 10 guys at one time.
It is pretty nasty. I am avoiding looking at those videos to be honest.
It expect it to take slightly longer. But yes not that much more.
Not really. The main limitation is the narrow roads are not enough for the amount of vehicles which need to move. Rail is more effective at moving things in bulk. But once the ground dries up I would not be surprised if the trucks could start moving offroad at least in certain sections. Ukraine is pretty flat.
Russia will use the Railway Troops to fix any broken rail in a couple of days if they really need it. So far the Railway Troops seem to be mostly active in the south establishing the links to Crimea.
It will favor vehicle mobility. But to move vehicles you need fuel. One side has lots of fuel and the other does not. I think the result will be pretty obvious.
I do not think they were strictly feints. I think it was the typical Deep Battle operation where you attack in multiple axis to probe the enemy and then regroup and focus attacks on the axis you want to drive through. With the expectation several of those places they probed would just collapse and surrender. In the south it worked. They managed to capture territory on the other side of the Dnieper. They also tried to push into Nikolayev to see if they could cross the river there and maybe continue to drive towards Odessa. But then the Ukrainian side started blowing up bridges towards Odessa and stiffened up resistance. So the Russians gave up, tried to go around Nikolayev, but probably could not get to a narrow place to cross the river without getting its rear attacked by the Ukrainian troops in Nikolayev. The Russians did not have enough troops to go into Nikolayev proper either and I think those were VDV so not enough armor either. The troops from Crimea were split in two axis West and East. So they pulled back from the Nikolayev Oblast and I think those troops are now trying to support the Donbass section by making thrusts towards the center to prevent them from sending the troops in Nikolayev to reinforce the Donbass region.
It seems relatively early on the Russians decided to focus on Mariupol to link up Crimea and Donbass. They moved the Marines to Mariupol when the Donbass section with LPR/DPR troops took longer than originally planned to get into the city.
And for Sumy and Chernihiv, both places had little strategic importance in terms of the overall operation, and Russian lines were getting way too extended while neither place collapsed immediately, so they pulled back. Had those places collapsed and there been little resistance maybe things would have been different. I think the fact Kharkov did not surrender made continuing operations around Sumy and Chernihiv way too dangerous. Then there is the fact Ukraine keeps bombarding the residential areas in Donbass. So they had to focus operations there.
There is some of that. But the whole war was unnecessary in the first place had Ukraine accepted the autonomy of Donbass. You know the treaty they signed and reneged on. Even if they had to give them their own parliament, it would hardly be something new even for Ukraine, since Crimea used to have autonomy. And as for Crimea they could have just let it be in Russian hands and leave the status unresolved. Spain and the UK to this day do not agree on the status of Gibraltar and you do not see them in active war. And sorry about that, but if you think as a smaller country you can just do whatever you want with a large neighbor like that close to you, then you are being really naive.
At least some amount of good news. Your family should keep any property deeds of land or housing they had. When this clears up eventually, even if it takes decades, they might get it back or be able to claim compensation.
I forgot to add but wars are the perfect time to test out new equipment. Watch out for exotic new Russian gears and weapons showing up on the battlefield.
This war is probably Russia first and only chance to test out their new upcoming toys. Don't read too much into it when you see them and knowing Western propaganda, they will spin any apearance as signs of Russia's weakness and distress. Don't be fooled.
I won't be surprised if we see Russia's T-14 Armata tank. I've seen footage of Russia's BMPT Terminator near Severodonetsk for the upcoming asault there. I don't know how close they (3) were to the front lines.
This war is probably Russia first and only chance to test out their new upcoming toys. Don't read too much into it when you see them and knowing Western propaganda, they will spin any apearance as signs of Russia's weakness and distress. Don't be fooled.
I won't be surprised if we see Russia's T-14 Armata tank. I've seen footage of Russia's BMPT Terminator near Severodonetsk for the upcoming asault there. I don't know how close they (3) were to the front lines.
The current difficulties the Russians are facing in Ukraine are not due to any kind of Russian weakness. Russia can turn Ukraine into glass if they want to without having to resort to nukes, however Putin has basically shackled his own military to such a ridiculous extent because he considers Ukrainians to be his own people.
If you don't believe me just look at Azovstal, what's happening there is absolutely absurd, the Russians had Azovstal surrounded for how long now? For some weeks or months and they are still not finished! They could reduce Azovstal to one big crater within few minutes to minimize the casualties on the Russian side and get this over with quickly yet Putin is still refusing to do what needs to be done and he is still holding his military back.
Previously I always thought that Putin was a hardcore atheist who only pretends to be a christian for political reasons, however now I'm starting to think perhaps Putin truly does believe in Christianity! He is afraid if he goes all out on Ukraine and kills too many civilians in there then he will go to hell.
Long wars are also not good. In fact, a war should be as quick as possible in order to minimise any inevitable uncertainties arising from such war.
From example, given the extend that NATO is training Ukrainian forces, Russia should quickly finish this war before they get sufficient training with Western equipment and then thrown into combat.
Putin can call it whatever he wants. This is a war. What you probably mean is mobilisation which I would agree. Even then though, the economy keeps accruing damage
Lol. I think you underestimate NATO a little too much. Imagine giving NATO 2-5 years to train and supply Ukrainian forces. That's probably the dumbest thing that Putin could do if he wanted to destroy Russia's economy and military.
Basic question, who has the best MIC? NATO or Russia?
The answer to the above question determines if its in Russia's interest to prolong the war or not (hint: its not)
You are mistaken. This is a war between NATO and Russia. Ukraine is purely a pawn in this war which is destined to be sacrificed for NATO to achieve its aim on bleeding Russia. If Russia really thinks that its principle opponent is Ukraine, then it has already lost the strategic war
Yeah.. no. People still dont realise how powerful the dollar is.
Russia has damaged the dollar, but it wont destroy it. This can only be done by China
Now its 7 years.. How about you clearly describe the costs shouldered by the Russian economy during this time? Not only on decline of GDP numbers, but also on lost future GDP output. The numbers are staggering. Russia is basically shooting itself in the head to destroy Ukraine, which is merely a pawn of NATO.
All in all, Russia should aim to finish this war by end of Fall. Any longer than this, and it will become Afghanistan 2 for it with the whole West arming up and training the Ukrainian forces
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Broccoli
Senior Member
Russia has lost over 100 T-72B3 Obj 2016 tanks out of 570 (in less than three months btw) they got and those are equipped with Thales optics what are most sophisticated Russians have and can't be replaced. They were also strunggling with manufacturing home made optics (worse quality vs Thales) so I don't see how anyone can think Russia will be ready for attrition. Yeah, Russians have a lot of tanks... but most of them are older T-72 and T-80 models without any proper night-combat capabilities while Ukraine is getting that stuff for free.
Many writers in this forum live in made up reality where Russia has endless supplies of modern AFV's and capability to produce such weapon en masse. It doesn't have vast Soviet era armies full of men from different republics either... so throwing more men to the grinder isn't an solution because now those guys are Moscovites and other "our boys" not some men from Kazakhtans etc.
Many writers in this forum live in made up reality where Russia has endless supplies of modern AFV's and capability to produce such weapon en masse. It doesn't have vast Soviet era armies full of men from different republics either... so throwing more men to the grinder isn't an solution because now those guys are Moscovites and other "our boys" not some men from Kazakhtans etc.