The parties in Kiev look like they're about to end. The misery of war will reach your capital and the rabidly nationalist cities and towns of the West. Wars have a cost. Last month, most Ukrainians still did not feel this personally. This is gonna change.
If Ukraine thinks of another provocation, such as the recent attack on the Kerch Bridge, it should better consider the consequences. Since mid-September, the Ukrainian counteroffensive from Kharkov has stalled. Despite heavy Ukrainian losses, the counteroffensive southward from Kherson did not move much either. On the Donbas front, the Ukrainian central position in Bakhmut is in danger of falling. Russia mobilized 300,000 reservists and 70,000 volunteers. They are now in training and next month they will be ready.
The weather in recent weeks has become more rainy. Tanks and trucks can no longer move across open fields without risking getting stuck. In late November/December, frost will set in. The ground will freeze and Russia may launch major attacks if the Russian military leadership so desires.
Russia has also changed the pace of the war So far it has avoided hitting civilian infrastructure, in addition to electrical transformer stations that serve the rail network, but has launched attacks on thermoelectric plants and the 330 Kv long-range electrical distribution network.
Russian governor of the Kherson region has announced the "organized movement of the civilian population to the left bank of the Dnipro river" - Kommersant
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