I agree that the M2 would be a better fit for Ukraine's needs than the M1. But their main problem is lack of air cover or air power. Western missile defense is a bust so if the conflict lasts long enough I expect the US to send Ukraine F-16s or the like. But the thing is, it takes years to train pilots, so those would likely have to come from NATO as well. And it would be a major escalation if that happened.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Make cheaper missile tho... That's what Russians doing with Pantsyr.. and prolly Tor too, with increased ammunition load.
Gun have problem mainly in dispersion of its munition which requires smart fuzed munition, and this could actually rival missiles in cost especially that this are fired in burst. Another solution would be smart fuzed and increased caliber. Thus why we have 50mm and 57mm seems to regain popularity for AA purpose.
and there is laser.. tho this one have set of challenges like all weather performance and whether the platform can provide enough electrical power or space for laser fuel if chemical laser is sought upon.
Gun have problem mainly in dispersion of its munition which requires smart fuzed munition, and this could actually rival missiles in cost especially that this are fired in burst. Another solution would be smart fuzed and increased caliber. Thus why we have 50mm and 57mm seems to regain popularity for AA purpose.
and there is laser.. tho this one have set of challenges like all weather performance and whether the platform can provide enough electrical power or space for laser fuel if chemical laser is sought upon.
Good Knockabout, but you should think more, using a $200,000 to protect a $20,000,000 power station.
Still its a poor trade off as the cheap swarm drones are just that.
Lets not forget also that these drones are simply a class of weapon and that in due course the Russians have to anticipate that Ukraine may obtain something similar which is sent in their direction and to which they too will need to find an answer.
In the meantime, The Russians do have an advantage which helps create an opportunity. Can they grasp and use it?
What are you talking about lack of air cover? Russia doesn't have air superiority over the frontlines Russian air force is MIA. A competent air force would have easily taken out the buildup of Ukraine forces in Kherson, Kharkiv and Izyum. Ukraine forces have been on the offensive without any air cover if anything HiMARS has been acting as CAS and interdiction.
The pro-Russian Telegram channel "Readovka" does not believe in Zelensky's tearful speeches about the collapsed energy system of Ukraine and thinks it is a bluff of the Kiev regime.
Automatic translation, I quote:
October 19:
Methodical strikes on the Ukrainian energy system have been taking place for more than a week. How is our opponent tolerating them?
Despite the Ukrainian authorities' claims that up to 30% of all power plants were damaged, there is no talk about any noticeable sag in electricity generation and consumption. According to Ukrenergo, electricity generation on "peaceful" Tuesday, October 5 (12.07 gigawatts) exceeds numbers on the 18th (11.13 gigawatts) by only 9%. Despite periodic rolling blackouts, Ukrainians have kept the grid relatively stable so far.
The problem here is not the inefficiency of the strikes, but the enormous capacity reserve that Ukraine has. Due to the almost complete shutdown of industry and electricity exports to the EU, less than 50 percent of the total capacity of Ukrainian power generation is now in use. First of all, we are talking about thermal power plants and cogeneration plants, which now operate at only a fraction of their maximum capacity.
Does this mean that it is impossible to paralyze the Ukrainian power system with the means available to the RF Armed Forces? NO!
More than 50% of the generation (~6 GW) at the moment is provided by nuclear power plants (Rivne, Khmelnytsky and South Ukraine). Despite the availability of huge capacities of thermal power plants, Ukraine does not have sufficient fuel reserves for them.
Of course, suggesting that the Ministry of Defense should be like the Ukrainians and start shelling nuclear power plants is foolish. But there is another solution: to attack the outdoor switchgear (open distribution system) of the substations with which the nuclear power plants are connected, namely their transformers.
First of all, we are talking about 750kV substations - in case of destruction of all transformers at these substations, the flow of power from the NPP to the power system of Ukraine will actually stop. What would this mean for Ukrainian power engineers?
Firstly, the Ukrainian nuclear power plant will repeat the fate of ZNPP and will be shut down because of its inability to "recycle" the electricity it produces. Restarting a nuclear power plant is a labor-intensive and long process. With cold weather looming, a sudden shutdown of all nuclear power plants could have catastrophic consequences.
Secondly, although we mentioned earlier that Ukraine has a huge reserve of thermal power plants and cogeneration plants, it would not be possible to simply use them to generate electricity. The problem is in the shortage of fuel, especially coal. Fuel supplies from the West look unrealistic in conditions of severe energy crisis in the EU. Even if Europeans can allocate some resources for Ukraine, the question of logistics remains. Again, no one prevents the Russian Armed Forces from continuing strikes on other targets.
It is important to note here that from the beginning of the massive strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure on October 10 until the 17th, there were no strikes on 750 kV substations. Perhaps, it was caused by a display of humanism inherent in the Defense Ministry, but on the 17th of October several such substations were struck at once: Severoukrainskaya, Dneprovskaya, and Vinnitskaya. The damage to transformers at these substations immediately caused fan outages in Kharkov and Dnipropetrovsk.
Time will tell if such strikes will be a one-time action or just the first swallows of the change of the MoD's approach to the destruction of the strategic infrastructure of Ukraine.
The coordinates of all 750 kV substations are available, all of them are within the range of our weaponry. The only question is whether a decision will be made to destroy them or not.
It will not be easy to achieve the deterioration of the Ukrainian power system by shelling only ordinary thermal power plants. As always, a methodical approach to solving the problem always brings great results.
October 20:
The rolling blackouts and blackout are a fake by Zelensky to stop the strikes on Ukraine's energy system and arouse the compassion of Western countries
Last night various Kiev officials began making sobbing statements that today from 7 am to 11 pm a series of rolling blackouts would sweep across the country, the residents of Ukraine are asked to charge phones and limit consumption of electricity. In many cities, buses are running instead of streetcars and trolleybuses, and in some places the water is being turned off. It is all done as loudly and demonstratively as possible.
Recall that yesterday the Readovka team prepared an analysis of the results of strikes on the Ukrainian power system, during which we found that there was no critical damage at the moment. Ukraine still lives off nuclear power generation, and in order to plunge all regions into darkness, Russia needs to continue the methodical destruction of both cogeneration plants and thermal power plants, as well as transmission lines and substations coming from nuclear power plants. Surprisingly, Bloomberg came to similar conclusions almost simultaneously with us. The question arises: why is Zelensky stirring up these defeatist sentiments?
The answer is banally simple: first, by these actions Kiev is trying to convince Moscow that the goals of "retaliatory strikes" have been achieved and, therefore, the Geranium attacks can be stopped; second, this whole media story is aimed at the Western user in order to increase arms supplies and also to revise the price of electricity, which Ukraine exports to the EU.
In any case, both Zelensky's office and the population of Ukraine react quite painfully to Russian drone arrivals, and therefore the delivery of Geranium to Ukraine should continue and become an integral part of everyday life.
Automatic translation, I quote:
October 19:
Methodical strikes on the Ukrainian energy system have been taking place for more than a week. How is our opponent tolerating them?
Despite the Ukrainian authorities' claims that up to 30% of all power plants were damaged, there is no talk about any noticeable sag in electricity generation and consumption. According to Ukrenergo, electricity generation on "peaceful" Tuesday, October 5 (12.07 gigawatts) exceeds numbers on the 18th (11.13 gigawatts) by only 9%. Despite periodic rolling blackouts, Ukrainians have kept the grid relatively stable so far.
The problem here is not the inefficiency of the strikes, but the enormous capacity reserve that Ukraine has. Due to the almost complete shutdown of industry and electricity exports to the EU, less than 50 percent of the total capacity of Ukrainian power generation is now in use. First of all, we are talking about thermal power plants and cogeneration plants, which now operate at only a fraction of their maximum capacity.
Does this mean that it is impossible to paralyze the Ukrainian power system with the means available to the RF Armed Forces? NO!
More than 50% of the generation (~6 GW) at the moment is provided by nuclear power plants (Rivne, Khmelnytsky and South Ukraine). Despite the availability of huge capacities of thermal power plants, Ukraine does not have sufficient fuel reserves for them.
Of course, suggesting that the Ministry of Defense should be like the Ukrainians and start shelling nuclear power plants is foolish. But there is another solution: to attack the outdoor switchgear (open distribution system) of the substations with which the nuclear power plants are connected, namely their transformers.
First of all, we are talking about 750kV substations - in case of destruction of all transformers at these substations, the flow of power from the NPP to the power system of Ukraine will actually stop. What would this mean for Ukrainian power engineers?
Firstly, the Ukrainian nuclear power plant will repeat the fate of ZNPP and will be shut down because of its inability to "recycle" the electricity it produces. Restarting a nuclear power plant is a labor-intensive and long process. With cold weather looming, a sudden shutdown of all nuclear power plants could have catastrophic consequences.
Secondly, although we mentioned earlier that Ukraine has a huge reserve of thermal power plants and cogeneration plants, it would not be possible to simply use them to generate electricity. The problem is in the shortage of fuel, especially coal. Fuel supplies from the West look unrealistic in conditions of severe energy crisis in the EU. Even if Europeans can allocate some resources for Ukraine, the question of logistics remains. Again, no one prevents the Russian Armed Forces from continuing strikes on other targets.
It is important to note here that from the beginning of the massive strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure on October 10 until the 17th, there were no strikes on 750 kV substations. Perhaps, it was caused by a display of humanism inherent in the Defense Ministry, but on the 17th of October several such substations were struck at once: Severoukrainskaya, Dneprovskaya, and Vinnitskaya. The damage to transformers at these substations immediately caused fan outages in Kharkov and Dnipropetrovsk.
Time will tell if such strikes will be a one-time action or just the first swallows of the change of the MoD's approach to the destruction of the strategic infrastructure of Ukraine.
The coordinates of all 750 kV substations are available, all of them are within the range of our weaponry. The only question is whether a decision will be made to destroy them or not.
It will not be easy to achieve the deterioration of the Ukrainian power system by shelling only ordinary thermal power plants. As always, a methodical approach to solving the problem always brings great results.
October 20:
The rolling blackouts and blackout are a fake by Zelensky to stop the strikes on Ukraine's energy system and arouse the compassion of Western countries
Last night various Kiev officials began making sobbing statements that today from 7 am to 11 pm a series of rolling blackouts would sweep across the country, the residents of Ukraine are asked to charge phones and limit consumption of electricity. In many cities, buses are running instead of streetcars and trolleybuses, and in some places the water is being turned off. It is all done as loudly and demonstratively as possible.
Recall that yesterday the Readovka team prepared an analysis of the results of strikes on the Ukrainian power system, during which we found that there was no critical damage at the moment. Ukraine still lives off nuclear power generation, and in order to plunge all regions into darkness, Russia needs to continue the methodical destruction of both cogeneration plants and thermal power plants, as well as transmission lines and substations coming from nuclear power plants. Surprisingly, Bloomberg came to similar conclusions almost simultaneously with us. The question arises: why is Zelensky stirring up these defeatist sentiments?
The answer is banally simple: first, by these actions Kiev is trying to convince Moscow that the goals of "retaliatory strikes" have been achieved and, therefore, the Geranium attacks can be stopped; second, this whole media story is aimed at the Western user in order to increase arms supplies and also to revise the price of electricity, which Ukraine exports to the EU.
In any case, both Zelensky's office and the population of Ukraine react quite painfully to Russian drone arrivals, and therefore the delivery of Geranium to Ukraine should continue and become an integral part of everyday life.
This has relatively short range, so if you shoot down a suicide drone over a city, it's going to crash into civilians
Russian Armed Forces strikes on Ukraine’s energy system on October 19, 2022 — analysis
Rybar's team continues daily analysis of the consequences of systemic fire destruction of Ukrainian energy system facilities.
Verified Hits:
Burshtynska TPP - autotransformers hit. Located in Ivano-Frankovsk, the thermal power plant feeds western Ukraine, as well as Transcarpathia and the Carpathians. Depending on the severity of the damage, the entire southwest of the country could face significant power shortages.
Ladyzhynska TPP - the object was hit by three missiles, the exact amount of damage is unknown. Together with the cascade on the Dnieper, TPPs feed the entire south-west of the country, and the complete decommissioning of the facility will lead to an increase in the load on the network and a shortage of electricity in the region.
About power outages
The Ukrainian authorities announced on October 20 a rolling blackout in all regions, which will last from 7:00 to 23:00. People were urged to reduce their electricity consumption as much as possible. Street lighting will also be limited.
According to the Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko, if you do not reduce energy consumption, you will have to switch to temporary power outages. First of all, enterprises should reduce electricity consumption.
The Ukrainian energy system is experiencing a shortage of both generating and transmission capacities. Autotransformers at substations and thermal power plants were hit by blows. And the hydroelectric power stations, apparently, have been transferred to the maximum generation of electricity, but there is nothing to compensate for the morning and evening peaks of consumption.
So far, it is impossible to confirm the degree of damage to the power system in 30-40%, as they say in Kiev. However, the damage has already been done very serious, although not enough for a complete collapse.
Strikes on the 750 kV and 330 kV outdoor switchgear of the remaining three nuclear power plants can quickly cause critical damage to the power system. But at the same time they will have strong political costs.
Continued strikes on substations and thermal power plants will achieve the same effect. At the same time, they will require more time and more missiles.
Rybar's team continues daily analysis of the consequences of systemic fire destruction of Ukrainian energy system facilities.
Verified Hits:
Burshtynska TPP - autotransformers hit. Located in Ivano-Frankovsk, the thermal power plant feeds western Ukraine, as well as Transcarpathia and the Carpathians. Depending on the severity of the damage, the entire southwest of the country could face significant power shortages.Ladyzhynska TPP - the object was hit by three missiles, the exact amount of damage is unknown. Together with the cascade on the Dnieper, TPPs feed the entire south-west of the country, and the complete decommissioning of the facility will lead to an increase in the load on the network and a shortage of electricity in the region.About power outages
The Ukrainian authorities announced on October 20 a rolling blackout in all regions, which will last from 7:00 to 23:00. People were urged to reduce their electricity consumption as much as possible. Street lighting will also be limited.
According to the Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko, if you do not reduce energy consumption, you will have to switch to temporary power outages. First of all, enterprises should reduce electricity consumption.
The Ukrainian energy system is experiencing a shortage of both generating and transmission capacities. Autotransformers at substations and thermal power plants were hit by blows. And the hydroelectric power stations, apparently, have been transferred to the maximum generation of electricity, but there is nothing to compensate for the morning and evening peaks of consumption.
So far, it is impossible to confirm the degree of damage to the power system in 30-40%, as they say in Kiev. However, the damage has already been done very serious, although not enough for a complete collapse.
Strikes on the 750 kV and 330 kV outdoor switchgear of the remaining three nuclear power plants can quickly cause critical damage to the power system. But at the same time they will have strong political costs.
Continued strikes on substations and thermal power plants will achieve the same effect. At the same time, they will require more time and more missiles.
Unlikely given the Swiss involvement in the project.
They already vetoed Germany from sending swiss-made ammo for the donated Gepards