The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Sorry if this has been discussed before, but isn't Putin obligated to protect Kherson at all costs since this is legally considered Russian territory(in Russia)? That means he's obligated to use nukes if Ukrainians overrun the city, right?
They will defend Kherson and protect the civilians who are still there. Taking them out of the front is a way to protect them. You know that you don't nuke your own territory right ?
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
They are using beyond visual range SAM to intercept a drone at visual range at far higher altitude .
what does it tell you about sensors and revealing missile location.
How many aa missiles they have to be able to spend them on Shahed-136 ? Someone have an idea of the prewar stockpiles ? 72 command post or so for BUK, listed but how many missiles ?
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Exactly. Russia caught Ukraine sleeping and that's how it managed to get all that territory so quickly and with so little casualties.

Now imagine if Russia is pushed back and then wants to get these territories again. It would easily cost them >5x the casualties they had on the beginning of the war.

Offensive operation for Russia + crossing a river + complete ISR superiority for Ukraine + battle hardened Ukrainian troops = bad time for anyone trying to cross a river
Losing territories per se does not mean much. Losing all foothold West of the Dnipro does mean something. The way the Russians fight has not been about taking territories quickly. Even when they are on the offensive, the Ukrainians have suffered multiple X the casualties the Russians did. In fact, when the Russians were on the defensive, the casualty rate was said to be 5 to 1 in favor of the Russians, where as when they go on the offensive, the casualty rate was more like 8 to1. They just bombard the Ukrainians until the Ukrainians leave town and they went in and took it. As long as the Ukrainians still have tens of thousands of troops in town, they keep bombarding. The intent is to grind down the Ukrainian military. Actually, this is much better done closer to the current borders. The Russians have shorter supply lines. The Ukrainians must fight a long ways away.

The Ukrainians cannot continue to mobilize without end. What is important is that the motivated and trained soldiers are dwindling and the Ukrainian armor and cannons are lost irreplaceably. So far, in face of dire needs, NATO has refrained from sending the Abrams and Leopards, and for good reason. No defense industry want to see their tanks get blown up by cannon fire just as easily as the T-64s. It is bad for business. The way the Ukrainians use them, without air cover, without adequate cannon support, these tanks will not fare much better compared to the T-64s. No tank is designed to take a cannon shell from the top.

The Russians suffered from lack of troops when defending their territories. The Ukrainians have a much longer border to defend and fewer well trained and motivated men and armor to do it. The side that is on the defensive must defend all frontlines, the side that is on the offensive can concentrate his arm forces like a fist and punch through and encircle the other guy.

The 300K mobilization is not just to defend the existing borders. There will be an offensive coming from the Russians. For now, if the Ukrainians are willing to bring their armor out in the open to be attacked, the Russians are happy to obliged.

If the Russians can get through this offensive without losing all territories West of the Dnipro, the Ukrainians are in bad shape. Not only will they lose Donbass, they will likely to lose Odesa. We shouldn't have to wait too long for the Ukrainian offensive. The window is closing due to weather.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
tfw you think you're winning because you used a $200,000 missile to shoot down a $20,000 drone.
I've already given my opinion on this.
They are using beyond visual range SAM to intercept a drone at visual range at far higher altitude .
what does it tell you about sensors and revealing missile location.
To be fair, we don't know why this range was chosen to carry out the intercept,, but the fact is that if it were to carry out an interception further away, they would have this ability like the case shown by @Chilled_k6 :

But it is not possible to know if there really were organic radars in the place, but even so, this interception is very strange.

Update:
Source alleges AFU 59th brigade is in trouble in Dudchany

British Intelligence reportedly transmitted to the President's Office and the General Staff of Ukraine that Russia is redeploying troops in Kherson. Chechen troops and the national guard would be replaced by artillery and special forces. In addition, MI-6 reportedly reported that Russia is preparing the city as a fortification for the defense of the region. The local officials from Russia state clearly and concisely: "no piece of land will be handed over".

We'll see.
 
Last edited:

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
They will defend Kherson and protect the civilians who are still there. Taking them out of the front is a way to protect them. You know that you don't nuke your own territory right ?
Lets say destruction of the dam causes the whole city to be destroyed via flooding, should that be considered an act equal to a nuclear launch? Like how China consider attacks on Three Gouge Dam.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Ukraine today launched the third attempt to break through Russia's defensive line at Kherson, but to no avail, new waves of attack from Ukraine are being prepared for the next few hours.
FfdVRcwXkAA3NYe.jpg

The situation in the three most active sectors of the contact front - Krasnolimansky, Kherson and Kupyansky
12.jpg
In the direction of Krasnolimansky, Ukrainian attempts to force the Zherebets River into the settlement areas at night were thwarted. Stelmahovka, Rozovka and Raigorodka LPR. Russian troops destroyed more than 30 military personnel, 3 armored vehicles and 2 vehicles.

In the direction of Kupyansk, Russian troops inflicted fire damage on units of the 14th and 92nd brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as foreign mercenaries, in the areas of the settlement. Petropavlovka, Sandy and Berestovoye Kharkiv region. More than 40 Ukrainian military personnel, 4 armored vehicles and 3 pickup trucks were destroyed.

In the direction of Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog, missile attacks by the Russian Aerospace Forces in the Nikolaev area and on the Novovoskresenskoe, Bezymennoye and Trifonovka settlement in the Kherson region were hit by the forces of the 60th and 35th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as mercenaries. of the Foreign Legion. More than 120 military and mercenaries, 8 armored fighting vehicles and 12 vehicles were destroyed.

Embassy evacuation:
On the 15th, China asked its citizens to leave Ukraine
On the 16th, Serbia temporarily closed its Ukrainian embassy
On the 17th, Italy also recommended its citizens to leave
Today (19) India also did this
FfdTNcCXEBQ8Bsh.jpg
German President Steinmeier canceled his visit to Kiev, scheduled for tomorrow, for security reasons - German media says

KSA used Patriot to shoot down a Houthi drone
Pakistan shot down a Shaheed 129 (with JF-17 guns)
USA shot down a Shaheed 129 with an F-15E (did not have information on what weapon)

It isn't just the cost of the interceptor, but also what you are protecting.
Very cool. How to explain now when you have dozens of Houthi drones and dozens of Shaheed 129s to intercept? This is Ukraine's current dilemma. These situations you listed are important yes, I could give another example, a British fighter shot down a cheap Iranian drone near Al Tanf with a $200,000 air-to-air missile, but in none of these circumstances were they facing a mass of several dozens of drones.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Lets say destruction of the dam causes the whole city to be destroyed via flooding, should that be considered an act equal to a nuclear launch? Like how China consider attacks on Three Gouge Dam.
I know that Ukraine want to blow that dam, and the US are talking nonstop of Nuclear strike but it change nothing on the fact that you don't blow your own territory with nuke... clearly don't know why would someone propose to use nuke in Kherson ?
 
Top