The War in the Ukraine

An AFU Buk allegedly intercepting a Shahed-136

More occurrence of AFU SAM failures

Shahed-136 is really causing adverse reactions with analysts

Is Russia sending any systems or equipment to Iran? Some sources claim that due to the supply of missiles and drones to the Russians, they are possibly sending S-400s and other systems that were previously not in the Russian defense industry's export planning or it would just be the pursuit of more drones from Iran.
Still on this matter, it is worth remembering that Russia and Iran will sign a comprehensive cooperation agreement by the end of 2022. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said that Tehran and Moscow will sign a comprehensive cooperation agreement between the two countries.

Missile arrivals in Kiev

Russia's MoD Claims Destruction of AFU Communications Equipment in Odessa

I wouldn't say it's stable

Israel's Defense Minister makes it clear they won't be sending any weapons to Ukraine any time soon



It'd be interesting to know if the unusual rate of failure of Ukranian SAMs outside of MANPADs and SHORADs is due to faulty equipment(as far as I know, the missiles are only made in Russia in the case of the Buk) since they probably haven't received maintenance by the manufacturer since 2014, jamming or operator error.

It is fine to retreat when you are weaker and in danger of being encircled, and evacuation of the civilians in Khersan is the right thing to do, but I feel that if the Russians loses all of the territories West of the Dnipro, it is a big military blow to them. Crossing the Dnipro would be costly. If the rumors of the 60K-100K Ukrainians are true, they are indeed throwing the kitchen sink at this battle. Will see if the Russians manage to hold on to at least a beachhead West of the Dnipro before their own offensive starts.

reservior dogs said:

It is fine to retreat when you are weaker and in danger of being encircled, and evacuation of the civilians in Khersan is the right thing to do, but I feel that if the Russians loses all of the territories West of the Dnipro, it is a big military blow to them. Crossing the Dnipro would be costly. If the rumors of the 60K-100K Ukrainians are true, they are indeed throwing the kitchen sink at this battle. Will see if the Russians manage to hold on to at least a beachhead West of the Dnipro before their own offensive starts.

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60k is not even close to the kitchen sink. Ukraine has millions of fighting age men and unlike Russian "recruits" that get two weeks or less training Ukraine new recruits are trained by US/NATO to US/NATO standards, the same training doctrine Ukraine got after 2014 invasion in which they were able to expel Russian forces from Kyiv and all of north/north east of Ukraine. Remember on Feb 24th the only western weapons Ukraine had were Javelins, NLAWS and stingers everything else was soviet era military equipment. A couple weeks ago 10k new Ukrainian soldiers finished training in UK fully geared and with transport vehicles. Germany is training 15k and Poland/US is training 10-15k. It may take a lot more time than Russian "recruits" but when they do join Ukrainian units they make a huge difference.

Is there something wrong with using Osa/Stinger SAMs to intercept Shaheeds?
Is the IR signature not strong enough?
Would Crotale fare better with command guidance?

reservior dogs said:

It is fine to retreat when you are weaker and in danger of being encircled, and evacuation of the civilians in Khersan is the right thing to do, but I feel that if the Russians loses all of the territories West of the Dnipro, it is a big military blow to them. Crossing the Dnipro would be costly. If the rumors of the 60K-100K Ukrainians are true, they are indeed throwing the kitchen sink at this battle. Will see if the Russians manage to hold on to at least a beachhead West of the Dnipro before their own offensive starts.

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Exactly. Russia caught Ukraine sleeping and that's how it managed to get all that territory so quickly and with so little casualties.

Now imagine if Russia is pushed back and then wants to get these territories again. It would easily cost them >5x the casualties they had on the beginning of the war.

Offensive operation for Russia + crossing a river + complete ISR superiority for Ukraine + battle hardened Ukrainian troops = bad time for anyone trying to cross a river

Overbom said:

Exactly. Russia caught Ukraine sleeping and that's how it managed to get all that territory so quickly and with so little casualties.

Now imagine if Russia is pushed back and then wants to get these territories again. It would easily cost them >5x the casualties they had on the beginning of the war.

Offensive operation for Russia + crossing a river + complete ISR superiority for Ukraine + battle hardened Ukrainian troops = bad time for anyone trying to cross a river

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The NATO army passed it high, it was the stronest during September.


Now every passing day makes them weaker.

And Russia doesn't play for area, but now playing for the collapse of the Ukrainan state. The clock ticking, the partial collapse of the infrastructure makes hard the job of Washington.

Imagine what will happens if the whole Ukrainan electrical network collapse on a winter night, I mean the leftover of it.

Sorry if this has been discussed before, but isn't Putin obligated to protect Kherson at all costs since this is legally considered Russian territory(in Russia)? That means he's obligated to use nukes if Ukrainians overrun the city, right?

supersnoop said:

Is there something wrong with using Osa/Stinger SAMs to intercept Shaheeds?
Is the IR signature not strong enough?
Would Crotale fare better with command guidance?

Click to expand...

No. I would expect Stinger to work better than old types like Strela and Igla. Mainly because it's detector elements are InSb (Indium Antimonide) Which can sense 3-4 micron wavelength. So it can "see" Shahid airframe.

Igla and Strela works in Shorter wavelength due to them using PbS (Lead-Sulfide) Detector element, they are meant for hotter target like aircraft or helicopter exhaust pipe. Shahid's exhaust might present them some challenge as it's quite small and the temp might be in order of 400 degrees Celcius or 673 Kelvin... it emits in 4.3 micron wave band. Which outside the response of PbS detector and in area where PbSe (Lead Selenide) start losing its response.

Osa and Crotale are both command guided, they are basically equivalent. They have however their own set of challenge, namely RCS.