The War in the Ukraine

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
In purely military tactics terms you are right. However in politics, how are you going to win a war without gaining territory against an endless stream of conscripts?

So while people are indeed more important than territory in an operation where you have limited manpower, this doesn't mean that territory is meaningless.

Sometime in the future Russia will want to get back these areas and you can be certain that they will pay x times more casualties than they did on the first time they took that territory.

Its all about finding a balance (leaning towards preserving lives/manpower). If territory isn't important then they could simply just pack up their things and return to their pre-war borders, which obviously they aren't going to do, which means that (strategic) territory is actually quite important for them
True, but this is a bigger war than just Ukraine, it is a war of attrition with NATO. A slow grind that exhausts European NATO and causes significant demographic changes in Ukraine (since I cannot use the other d word) even at the cost of some ground now, could be making the most of a bad situation. If European NATO is exhausted the material basis for Ukraine's continued aggression is severely weakened.

In addition it shores up Russian weakness in demographics by transferring people from Ukraine to Russia who can be immediately economically productive due to their knowledge of Russian, while EU is further burdened with housing unproductive refugees who don't know a EU language well.

Purely from a military perspective, Kherson city on the right bank is difficult to defend intact. One way to minimize loss is to use it as a fortress while evacuating civilians. either repel the aggressors there or extract a heavy toll then blow bridges. Politically, losing Kherson is a big problem. How will Russia solve it? Watch the weather and the infrastructure hits.
 

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
If they don't have to deal with civilians, they can bomb whatever they like to defend and push back Ukrainian forces. It open a large spectrum of possibilities for defending or attacking. Even pile up ammonium nitrate to create giant mine in buildings on the path of enemy forces and blow them when they pass through. Winter is coming anyway, if they cannot keep the civilians with energy and water supply, better for them to go elsewhere for a while.
I think they are evacuating civilians because they are going to blow up the dam to slow or completely stop Ukraine. The flood will provide a much wider buffer than the Derp River provides.
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think they are evacuating civilians because they are going to blow up the dam to slow or completely stop Ukraine. The flood will provide a much wider buffer than the Derp River provides.

The Russians are worried that it is Ukraine that will blow up the barrage of Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. Surovikin also says it in today's interview and that's forcing the authorities in Kherson to start evacuating civilians.

Automatic translation:

The head of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, has already announced the possible undermining of the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant by Ukraine.

What is the threat of a breakthrough of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant:

1. Colossal streams of water will sweep away everything on its way. It will take several days to release water.

2. Coastal settlements and neighborhoods of Kherson will be flooded, consequences for the district center Golaya Prystan will be catastrophic.

3. The Kherson region will be in the emergency mode for many days.

4. Up to 50 thousand people will suffer.

5. It will take years to restore infrastructure from the consequences of Ukrainian terrorist shelling.

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Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Listening to Surovikin it seems like there is a real possibility that they would lose Kherson. If that indeed happens it's gonna be quite emabarasing and demoralising not just for the military but also for Russia as a nation, because remember Russia officially considers Kherson to be Russian land yet they will run away from it. if that happens I wonder, will Putin even be able to show his face to his nation? all of that hype due to the Shahed drone attacks will go away if they lose Kherson.

They could change the general a thousand times and that still won't make a difference, because the issue is the commander in chief who has shackled his military to a rediculous degree and only recently removed some of the shackles with the bombing of the energy infrastructure.

You know it's like how in school when in a classroom a bunch of students start eating in the class and they talk loudly not paying attention to the teacher while he has his back turned on them writing something on the choakboard pretending to not be aware of the chaos behind him, which only emboldens the students to be even more chaotic and disrespectful of him till after several months the teacher all of a sudden lashes out at them excessively because he is overflowing with all of that pent up anger. In other words if the teacher had shown from the very beginning a strong enough character to his student then the situation wouldn't have gotten this bad from the beginning to the point where he has to lash out.

From the beginning Putin greatly held his military back because he wanted to preserve Ukrainian civilian lives.
But mark my words Putin will eventually end up killing far many more Ukrainians than is needed for the war and he will do that while losing many more Russian soldiers than what was needed to win the war.
I wouldn't say that. It would be demoralizing if Russia retreated and did not continue to attack Ukraine's rear, in addition to not being able to evacuate civilians as happened exactly in Kharkov. This reactive approach by Russia was condemning the Russian military, especially the pro-Russian civilians, and I say that Shoigu and Gerasimov are also partly to blame for this inaction.

Also, no one paid attention, but Surovikin's words refuted one of the biggest claims they had around him, all the media pointed out that he didn't believe in retreat, his recent statements show exactly the opposite, this is great information that was given, if this claim was really proven, something could happen that so far has not happened with the Russian military, having large military units surrounded.

As you said, things changed with the direction of Surovikin, he obviously has greater freedom as in the case of attacks on energy installations that are still going on. But the strategic situation will not change in a few days of command, that takes time, even more with a mobilization in the hands with so many problems.

I don't see how a tactical retreat is a humiliation, especially considering russian military history. I mention the date of June 24, 1812, Napoleon's "Grande Armée" crossed the border into the Russian Empire. The commander-in-chief of the Russian army, Mikhail Barclay de Tolly, wanted to avoid a general battle with the French, preferring to retreat inland. Due to the population's dissatisfaction with these tactics, Emperor Alexander I decided to appoint Kutuzov as commander-in-chief.

Kutuzov, however, was in no hurry to enter the battle and, in general, shared his predecessor's logic: the Grande Armée had to starve. Kutuzov claimed that the Grande Armée would eat its own horses, just as he did the Ottoman forces on the north bank of the Danube when he captured the supply base, forcing the Ottomans to eat their own horses.

The Russians burned Moscow, my friend... when Napoleon arrived in the city, it was still on fire, you know what he said: "It's Scythians." An analogy to describe the Scythians who periodically retreated and attacked the enemy in the face of the overwhelming power of the Persians, with the Persian army being defeated because they never fought a decisive battle.

The Grande Armée was defeated, returning with less than 1/6 of its original strength.

Going back to the present, the Russians seem to have some defensive strategy for the winter, the Russians are digging trenches in Donbas, I saw an enlarged front of several km of trenches being prepared:
Sem-t-tulo.png
 

obj 705A

Junior Member
Registered Member
I wouldn't say that. It would be demoralizing if Russia retreated and did not continue to attack Ukraine's rear, in addition to not being able to evacuate civilians as happened exactly in Kharkov. This reactive approach by Russia was condemning the Russian military, especially the pro-Russian civilians, and I say that Shoigu and Gerasimov are also partly to blame for this inaction.

Also, no one paid attention, but Surovikin's words refuted one of the biggest claims they had around him, all the media pointed out that he didn't believe in retreat, his recent statements show exactly the opposite, this is great information that was given, if this claim was really proven, something could happen that so far has not happened with the Russian military, having large military units surrounded.

As you said, things changed with the direction of Surovikin, he obviously has greater freedom as in the case of attacks on energy installations that are still going on. But the strategic situation will not change in a few days of command, that takes time, even more with a mobilization in the hands with so many problems.

I don't see how a tactical retreat is a humiliation, especially considering russian military history. I mention the date of June 24, 1812, Napoleon's "Grande Armée" crossed the border into the Russian Empire. The commander-in-chief of the Russian army, Mikhail Barclay de Tolly, wanted to avoid a general battle with the French, preferring to retreat inland. Due to the population's dissatisfaction with these tactics, Emperor Alexander I decided to appoint Kutuzov as commander-in-chief.

Kutuzov, however, was in no hurry to enter the battle and, in general, shared his predecessor's logic: the Grande Armée had to starve. Kutuzov claimed that the Grande Armée would eat its own horses, just as he did the Ottoman forces on the north bank of the Danube when he captured the supply base, forcing the Ottomans to eat their own horses.

The Russians burned Moscow, my friend... when Napoleon arrived in the city, it was still on fire, you know what he said: "It's Scythians." An analogy to describe the Scythians who periodically retreated and attacked the enemy in the face of the overwhelming power of the Persians, with the Persian army being defeated because they never fought a decisive battle.

The Grande Armée was defeated, returning with less than 1/6 of its original strength.

Going back to the present, the Russians seem to have some defensive strategy for the winter, the Russians are digging trenches in Donbas, I saw an enlarged front of several km of trenches being prepared:
View attachment 99689
The Ukrainian military is not the Grande armee, the major troubles that the Russians are facing now are purely self inflicted and are not due to some super Grande armee.
If the Russians had done war the right way from the beginning instead of holding back and p*ssyfooting around then they wouldn't have been forced into this situation of evacuating their own civilians and possibly withdrawing from Russian land and then bombing it themselves in the first place.
 

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is the correct strategy. Save lives and give up territory is worth, since the land is going nowhere. Give up lives for territory and you eventually lose both.
That may be true in a civil war in which your success depends on turning part of the country's population into soldiers for your side. That doesn't apply here. The citizens of Kherson are not going to volunteer to fight for Russia in large numbers and the number of Russian soldiers isn't limited by the newly acquired citizens. It depends on the people in pre war Russia, which aren't really threatened by Ukraine
 
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