The War in the Ukraine

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
Such a weird guy tbh.

I mean, exceptional statesmen like Deng, Kissinger or maybe Xi if you count him, you can understand at least a hint of what theyre trying to do.

Putin starts a war where everyone, including his allies, view it as a war of survival, and then he goes and randomly drops little nuggets of wisdom like "Moscow does not have the intention of destroying Ukraine as a country" even as Zelensky and NATO is frothing at the mouth every time the word Russia is mentioned.

So, if Russia is not going to use their bomber superiority, then what will be their next move?

Either Putin has 170 iq or he has 70 iq. No inbetweens.
I read somewhere on twitter he mean't more like Russia doesn't need to escalate the situation to a higher level. That the current level of missile and drone usage is enough for what their objectives are for (pre)Season 2 of the SMO.

But yeah i can't read RT because i'm located in the ooh so free garden called the EU.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Russia's enemies openly say that they not only want the destruction of their country but also the death of their leader, how are they acting to defend themselves against this enemy initiative?
Here's the answer: Let's stop the attack, because we've already done a lot of damage.

This is a real joke.

Then their supporters say they deserve to lose, like Strelkov, Dugin and so many others, they are the fifth column, sixth column or traitors, recently it was reported that they are under investigation because they are discrediting the Russian army. And who wouldn't disbelieve in the face of so much passivity?
This is a business.
Not emotional wagling.

The Russians handling all of this like a cold headed payout calculation.

Think like a professional, they make the rules, and if the Ukrainan live with the Russian Rules then they are fine, if not then they have few plant blown up.

Mouth wragling, advertisement, not calculated/ paid for actions doesn't make sense.


Like ,you know, if the Maffia break the leg of a person.They don't do it because of the emotion,revenge or whatever, but because the book has to be ballanced, all debt has to be canceled with credit, and they need to break that leg to make the tally.

If no one know that the leg was broken then it doesn't make sense, if the reason not advertised again, it doesn't make sense.

It is just business.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The Russian missile strikes were used, I think, to gimp Ukraine's mobility and blunt their offensives. These were combined with limited Russian counter offensives across the whole line of contact. It seems to have mostly worked since Ukraine's advance seems to have stalled with one exception near Lyman. And it is not like Russia can collapse the entire Ukrainian power grid, they refrained from attacking near the nuclear power stations, or the NPP electric supply, to prevent meltdowns. I think you will continue to see delaying tactics for the most part until the mobilized troops are available for a more general offensive. As is, Russia already seems to be forward positioning a lot of equipment.
 

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Russian missile strikes were used, I think, to gimp Ukraine's mobility and blunt their offensives. These were combined with limited Russian counter offensives across the whole line of contact. It seems to have mostly worked since Ukraine's advance seems to have stalled with one exception near Lyman. And it is not like Russia can collapse the entire Ukrainian power grid, they refrained from attacking near the nuclear power stations, or the NPP electric supply, to prevent meltdowns. I think you will continue to see delaying tactics for the most part until the mobilized troops are available for a more general offensive. As is, Russia already seems to be forward positioning a lot of equipment.
Ukraine is consolidating and sweeping the land they have gained and that takes time. Just like when they took Izyum there was a lull but Russian Telegram is picking up reports of a new offensive coming. Even western military officials are giving hints of a major offensive to take control of Kherson up to the Der river.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
This is a business.
Not emotional wagling.

The Russians handling all of this like a cold headed payout calculation.

Think like a professional, they make the rules, and if the Ukrainan live with the Russian Rules then they are fine, if not then they have few plant blown up.

Mouth wragling, advertisement, not calculated/ paid for actions doesn't make sense.

Like ,you know, if the Maffia break the leg of a person.They don't do it because of the emotion,revenge or whatever, but because the book has to be ballanced, all debt has to be canceled with credit, and they need to break that leg to make the tally.

If no one know that the leg was broken then it doesn't make sense, if the reason not advertised again, it doesn't make sense.

It is just business.
You are at war, you should have taken out their power plants on day one. Why even give the Ukrainians an opportunity to strike at bridges, cities, and anything else they feel like targeting?

You think Ukrainians will really say, "oh no, we better stop shelling Russian towns or they'll fire more missiles at us" They'll carry on doing what they have been doing until they are incapable of doing so.

Your analogy is false, the mafia only used tactics like that on rational people. Ukraine is like a homeless drug addict, messages don't work. You need to take them out or they'll bring you down with them. And Russia has been very emotional in their responses, like the missile strikes right after the bridge was blown up.

It makes no sense to anyone outside of Russia, Putin is making Russia look like a laughing stock right now.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
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Looks like Putin decided he did too much damage to Ukraine, no further strikes.

We'll have to wait for the next Ukrainian terrorist attack for Russia to do something again. Where next, the Kremlin?
No comments
Oy vey. These poor Belarusians have no idea what hell is waiting for them if they go in. This could be the beginning of the end for Lukashenko. It feels like Putin may have given him an ultimatum to join.
Lukashenko has no other choice, Russia's defeat would mean the end of his regime, he needs to anchor himself to all expectations that Russia will win this conflict even if he has to enter it to support it, that would be all or nothing for Lukashenko.

Probably with Geranium-2 kamikaze drones.

That was a little too fast for 220,000.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Such a weird guy tbh.

I mean, exceptional statesmen like Deng, Kissinger or maybe Xi if you count him, you can understand at least a hint of what theyre trying to do.

Putin starts a war where everyone, including his allies, view it as a war of survival, and then he goes and randomly drops little nuggets of wisdom like "Moscow does not have the intention of destroying Ukraine as a country" even as Zelensky and NATO is frothing at the mouth every time the word Russia is mentioned.

So, if Russia is not going to use their bomber superiority, then what will be their next move?

Either Putin has 170 iq or he has 70 iq. No inbetweens.
War is a complex business. You need to make sure your economy can handle the cost in the long run. You need to ensue that your allies are still onboard. You need to mobilize your own country. While there is high percent of Russians approving of the war, it could change depending on how much sacrifice they are asked to shoulder. Within Russia, there are oligarchs who controls the balance of financial power and who only looks after number one. After that is taken cared of, you need to look at how the war is viewed by your enemies. Just as not all Russians are going to unconditionally line up behind Putin, not all his enemies in the West will have the same level of enthusiasm for supporting the war. This is especially true now that even amongst Western Europe, the question of who blew up the Nordstream pipelines are answered in the minds of the populus.

This is not just a straight forward military operation. There are lots of political and financial consideration for both domestic and foreign audience. I think if you take all of these into consideration, Putin has done very well given the limitation of his small economy and weak military. I don't believe all these 'defeats' are real. For example, if Putin defeated Ukraine quickly in Donbass and Ukraine(really NATO) sue for peace while building up a very strong defensive line, it basically spell the end of the Russian operation. This is not an ideal outcome. If Ukraine still has the will to fight on and overextends itself, they might collapse when the Russians do their counter offensive. This might allow Russia to take all land East of the Dnipro and the South.

It is a long war, buckle your seatbelts.
 

Fedupwithlies

Junior Member
Registered Member
War is a complex business. You need to make sure your economy can handle the cost in the long run. You need to ensue that your allies are still onboard. You need to mobilize your own country. While there is high percent of Russians approving of the war, it could change depending on how much sacrifice they are asked to shoulder. Within Russia, there are oligarchs who controls the balance of financial power and who only looks after number one. After that is taken cared of, you need to look at how the war is viewed by your enemies. Just as not all Russians are going to unconditionally line up behind Putin, not all his enemies in the West will have the same level of enthusiasm for supporting the war. This is especially true now that even amongst Western Europe, the question of who blew up the Nordstream pipelines are answered in the minds of the populus.

This is not just a straight forward military operation. There are lots of political and financial consideration for both domestic and foreign audience. I think if you take all of these into consideration, Putin has done very well given the limitation of his small economy and weak military. I don't believe all these 'defeats' are real. For example, if Putin defeated Ukraine quickly in Donbass and Ukraine(really NATO) sue for peace while building up a very strong defensive line, it basically spell the end of the Russian operation. This is not an ideal outcome. If Ukraine still has the will to fight on and overextends itself, they might collapse when the Russians do their counter offensive. This might allow Russia to take all land East of the Dnipro and the South.

It is a long war, buckle your seatbelts.
I suspect how the war continues is going to depend on how the protests in Iran and Europe turn out, and how big a grudge Venezuela has against Biden.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
This is a business.
Not emotional wagling.

The Russians handling all of this like a cold headed payout calculation.

Think like a professional, they make the rules, and if the Ukrainan live with the Russian Rules then they are fine, if not then they have few plant blown up.

Mouth wragling, advertisement, not calculated/ paid for actions doesn't make sense.


Like ,you know, if the Maffia break the leg of a person.They don't do it because of the emotion,revenge or whatever, but because the book has to be ballanced, all debt has to be canceled with credit, and they need to break that leg to make the tally.

If no one know that the leg was broken then it doesn't make sense, if the reason not advertised again, it doesn't make sense.

It is just business.
This is not an emotional speech, it is very rational in view of the way the Russians react.

Are the Russians really dealing with a cool head? I will tell you that this is not entirely true.

The Russians only carried out these mass attacks when they were forced to react in the face of the emotion caused by the Crimean bridge explosion. Today, 5 days after the start of the first attack, I would say that the Russians would have been able to do this well before the Crimean bridge exploded, why didn't they do it sooner if nothing would have changed if the attack had started October 09 or October 5th?

I say the reason. Because they were forced.

The strategic objective of the Russian military leadership may not have changed since the bridge explosion, but the ability to act in furtherance of all that these attacks would mean for the AFU's military logistical cargo was there from the beginning, you would say these attacks were totally rational when they were not, they were a response to an action promoted by the AFU.

When you tell me to act rationally, you are not considering that this should also apply to Russia's military leadership, I can even accept that the change of command may have some influence on this reaction to the bridge explosion, but based on military actions historically everything leads me to believe not.

When the attacks started I said that this kind of action should be casual to have the desired effect, with this new statement they are openly saying that just blow up a bridge in Russia or carry out terrorist attacks in the country and they will react for a week and all will return to normal.

The example is enough that this type of reaction is emotional, if Russia thinks that these AFU means would in no way change the strategic direction of the war, it would simply not be necessary to follow this way of reacting and then withdraw, this indicates that they simply These attacks as a form of execution, which is quite different from following a well-defined strategy even if they have setbacks.

I read somewhere on twitter he mean't more like Russia doesn't need to escalate the situation to a higher level. That the current level of missile and drone usage is enough for what their objectives are for (pre)Season 2 of the SMO.

But yeah i can't read RT because i'm located in the ooh so free garden called the EU.
Do you know why he doesn't want to escalate anymore?

Because he wants to negotiate with Kiev with Turkey as a mediator. It worked very well in previous times.

Einstein defined this as madness.

The Russian missile strikes were used, I think, to gimp Ukraine's mobility and blunt their offensives. These were combined with limited Russian counter offensives across the whole line of contact. It seems to have mostly worked since Ukraine's advance seems to have stalled with one exception near Lyman. And it is not like Russia can collapse the entire Ukrainian power grid, they refrained from attacking near the nuclear power stations, or the NPP electric supply, to prevent meltdowns. I think you will continue to see delaying tactics for the most part until the mobilized troops are available for a more general offensive. As is, Russia already seems to be forward positioning a lot of equipment.
Nice. Now explain to me why you do this after they blew up the Crimea bridge and didn't do it before? Explain rationally to me why they did this after suffering the attack on the bridge and not before when the ability to do so was already there.

And another, there are many ways of using action for the Russians, the main one is so far and what has remained intact is the fact that Zelensky is alive, the political leadership should have already been one of the main targets to be eliminated. . Perhaps as the previous colleague mentioned, when they carry out terrorist attacks in the Kremlin they may realize that they should attack as they were attacked, but depending on the course of action, it may be too late.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Ukraine is consolidating and sweeping the land they have gained and that takes time. Just like when they took Izyum there was a lull but Russian Telegram is picking up reports of a new offensive coming. Even western military officials are giving hints of a major offensive to take control of Kherson up to the Der river.
It is widely accepted that Ukraine is accumulating troops on the southern front, some sources claim that as many as 60,000 AFU troops would have been gathered to carry out the major attack, with half of that contingent stationed at Nikolaev preparing to attack Kherson.

Let's see how this new general will react in the first major offensive of the enemy, based on this new Russian statement, I would say that General Sergei Surovikin has his hands tied, and I expected just the opposite.

I suggest getting the popcorn and following the unfolding of events.
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