The War in the Ukraine

Sinnavuuty said:

Probably only Kalibr-NK had a stockpile of between 1,600 and 2,000 units before the start of the war. Also, we have the media reporting an approximate number of older missiles before the war started:

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I distinctly remember we discussed that article a long time ago and it was evident a lot of "pulling-numbers-out-of-their-arse" was done.

Anyway, there are claims this picture was taken in Ukraine, some claim it is fake, others that it is R-37. I'd say a Tochkha-U but at that stage of flight, that body wouldn't be still attached to the warhead.

The next best thing I can come up with is a Kh-58UShKE ARM





LMUR missile striking an Ukranian BMP that was towing a captured T-62M


What's left of the bridge, the vehicle towing it and the T-62M

sheogorath said:

Anyway, there are claims this picture was taken in Ukraine, some claim it is fake, others that it is R-37. I'd say a Tochkha-U but at that stage of flight, that body wouldn't be still attached to the warhead.

The next best thing I can come up with is a Kh-58UShKE ARM

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I saw. Each claiming a different missile.
or

So far the Kh-58 seems to be a better match although the fins are rather short but could be a distortion by the speed, angle, light, etc.

It would be also be interesting to find out what launched it. As far as I am aware it is only integrated to the Su-57 and maybe, the Su-35, so a Su-57 went in and did some SEAD?.

An interesting development so far:
On the same subject, movement towards the Belarus border:




PMC Wagner advances in Bakhmut






Australian servicemen may be sent to Ukraine to train Ukrainian soldiers - Defense Minister Richard Marles, reports SBS News.

As I mentioned earlier, the Shepetovsky railway junction, the repair plant and the positions of the 11th anti-aircraft missile regiment of the AFU, located in the Khmelnytsky region, were seriously damaged by today's Russian missiles.



Ukrainian anti-aircraft system in operation on the October 10th

Ukraine's interception claim

@gelgoog claim seems to have been the correct one.

MLRS strike with thermite on Ukranian positions in Nikopol

cn_habs said:

Why hasn't Russia taken out the highways, railways and tunnels between Ukraine and Poland instead with this new wave of cruise missiles?

Those are freaking stationary targets that are out in the open that will see the amount of hardware being used by Ukraine decrease significantly. It's really not asking a lot.

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Railroader's opinion:

“I have experience in the profession. Assistant driver of an electric locomotive, diesel locomotive, as well as by education I am a "Master of Railway Tracks, Construction and Maintenance", a total experience of 12 years.

I want to say the following. It is not the superstructure of the track itself that needs to be destroyed, the issue of restoration is a maximum of a day under the most terrible scenarios.

I would pay close attention to the fleet of locomotives, locomotive depots, PMS (track machine stations) - they are the ones who are engaged in the restoration of the track. To paralyze any movement on the railway, it is necessary to knock out the LOCOMOTIVE DEPO. Fortunately, their location is known (any junction station).

And another argument. It is impossible to restore the locomotive fleet, because European locomotives have a different gauge, and it is almost impossible to get locomotives of our gauge, because the locomotive fleet in Ukraine is almost all from the USSR.

In general, IMHO, if the Ministry of Defense wants to deliver sensitive and most effective strikes on industries, you need to ask the professionals. Judging by the attacks on the railway infrastructure, there were no such consultations.”

@sashakots

Zichan said:

It looks like Russian cruise missiles lack the accuracy to reliably strike tunnels. According to USNI, a Russian journalist they quote stated that Kalibr has an accuracy (CEP?) of 30m.

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A missile hit the car of a Ukrainian leader directly. Two missiles hit a bridge directly.

MixedReality said:

And another argument. It is impossible to restore the locomotive fleet, because European locomotives have a different gauge, and it is almost impossible to get locomotives of our gauge, because the locomotive fleet in Ukraine is almost all from the USSR.

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The US has sold diesel locomotives to Mongolia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine which use Russian gauge.

The problem is delivering them. Without shipping them they would have to go by rail or be assembled in Ukraine. And it is a lot easier and cheaper to blow them up than build them.

These hits also look quite precise to me. Whatever ammo is stored there, went up immediately.

Sinnavuuty said:

We have supposed evidence:

I'm not convinced the Ukrainian shot down a missile in this video, but a Shahed-136. Cruise missiles were very effective today because apparently Shahed-136 drones were used as bait to distract and confuse Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses. Ukrainian soldiers celebrated thinking they shot down a missile with MANPADS, but it was just a Shahed drone.
It's not just me with this claim...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579498557044051968

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That would be an interesting tactic to use if they can time it right.

From the video though, I do not think it's a Shahed 136 they shot down. It sounds more like a cruise missile, the drone engine has quite a distinctive whirring sound.