The War in the Ukraine

Tam said:

Yes, every MANPAD costs more and takes longer to make than a Shahed 136. Furthermore, it's the Igla that's most effective against the drones and that's not being furnished anymore.

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It always depend of what the Shahed 136 will destroy anyway... it's not only the cost of the missile.

But like you say, Russia are certainly able to mass produce the Shahed while the Ukraine manpads they use are probably their remaining stockpiles for the next year more or less... If they don't have any against attack helicopters in a couple of weeks, it will hurt way more than these Shahed.

Sinnavuuty said:

This attack a few hours ago took place mainly through strategic bombers, if I'm not mistaken there were some sources saying that there were 40 bombers in the air, with the NATO media confirming this number reporting to Ukraine.

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But I'm really blind, I've read bombers... hahaha

Fierce fighting continues in the Kremennaya area. During a Russian counterattack, soldiers from Division Z and Spestnaz from Division O re-established control over the settlements of Terny (already mentioned), Torskoye and Novosadovoe.

Rybar also mentioned that the first mobilized arrived at the front.

Ukraine continues the offensive towards Svatove against the defensive positions of Russian forces, regaining control of the Pershotravneve and Nevs'ke settlements identified by the light-colored yellow line.



In Kherson Oblast, the settlements of P'yatykhaty, Sablukivka and Kachkarivka are now contested as Ukraine carries out probing attacks on Russian new defensive lines. It is worth noting that last week Ukraine carried out a maneuver that captured the northeast of Kherson, in recent days it is worth mentioning the advance on Novaya Kamenka, but the front line apparently has been moving towards stabilization with intense Russian artillery activity. In the evening of the 10th, Ukrainian formations fired another salvo of HIMARS missiles at the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson. Two missiles hit, the rest were intercepted by air defense.

In the direction of Soledar, PMC Wagner units are fighting on the outskirts of Bakhmut. The unit has been achieving important advances in the south of the city these days.

Luhansk Region:
Ukrainian formations attacked the center of Rubizhne with HIMARS missiles.

Donetsk:
Russian missile and artillery troops hit concentrations of personnel and armored vehicles from Ukrainian formations in Avdeevka, Vodyany, Krasnohorivka and Maryinka.

Zaporizhzhia:
Russian troops attacked Ukrainian positions in Malaya Tokmachka, Malinovka, Novoaleksandrovka, Zaliznichny and Krasny, as well as in Nikopol on the banks of the Kakhovka reservoir.

Why hasn't Russia taken out the highways, railways and tunnels between Ukraine and Poland instead with this new wave of cruise missiles?

Those are freaking stationary targets that are out in the open that will see the amount of hardware being used by Ukraine decrease significantly. It's really not asking a lot.

Close to zero. (Personal opinion) Lack of target info, especialy timely one, is the single biggest reason behind russian air force being relatively ineffective during this whole war.

Atomicfrog said:

Not a lot of Russian heavy bomber have dumb bomb capacity anymore. They probably used strategic bomber in the latest cruise missile attack. A bear is a sitting duck against S-300 or BUK... TU-22 didn't fair well in Georgia, Would not risk a Tu-160 over Ukraine.

Would have been interesting to recycle old Intercontinental ICBM to carry a giant conventional load at 2000 km by keeping only the first booster stage...

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It would be cool to see this too. An ICBM travelling at hypersonic speeds will have a lot of kinetic energy. It'll be like a tactical nuclear weapon without any of the fallout.

Take out a retired Soviet ICBM and replace the warhead with a tungsten ballast and launch it at an appropriate target.

Surovikin woke up this morning and it looks like he ordered the usual:
The cruise missiles should have crossed into Ukrainian airspace right about now. Current air sirens:

Those Caspian Sea KH-101 where launched from strategic bomber fleet. We've known in the last day or two that indeed there's been bomber gathering around Caspian Sea.

cn_habs said:

Why hasn't Russia taken out the highways, railways and tunnels between Ukraine and Poland instead with this new wave of cruise missiles?

Those are freaking stationary targets that are out in the open that will see the amount of hardware being used by Ukraine decrease significantly. It's really not asking a lot.

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I've wondered myself that since April and I've come to the conclusion it would take a lot of missiles and it would only put those roads and railways out for at least a couple days. Is it worth it if you're just hitting the road and railway and not the actual weapons? Targets like that need to be taken out by aircraft carrying 2000lb+ of ordinance to really mission kill it for more than a week or two. That's how the US does it no cruise missile for such targets always aircraft.

cn_habs said:

Why hasn't Russia taken out the highways, railways and tunnels between Ukraine and Poland instead with this new wave of cruise missiles?

Those are freaking stationary targets that are out in the open that will see the amount of hardware being used by Ukraine decrease significantly. It's really not asking a lot.

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It looks like Russian cruise missiles lack the accuracy to reliably strike tunnels. According to USNI, a Russian journalist they quote stated that Kalibr has an accuracy (CEP?) of 30m.

SolarWarden said:

I've wondered myself that since April and I've come to the conclusion it would take a lot of missiles and it would only put those roads and railways out for at least a couple days. Is it worth it if you're just hitting the road and railway and not the actual weapons? Targets like that need to be taken out by aircraft carrying 2000lb+ of ordinance to really mission kill it for more than a week or two. That's how the US does it no cruise missile for such targets always aircraft.

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This is not entirely true, at least with regard to railroads.

This Western aid could have been drastically reduced if the Russians had done their job. It is not possible to reduce deliveries to zero due to the extension of the common border and the developed road transport network. But the AFU clearly needs fuel and other supplies from the West, so the delivery of equipment, ammunition and other military equipment is mainly carried out by rail, as close as possible to the troop concentration areas. The target of these attacks should have been infrastructure located in close proximity to western borders in Ukraine. What the AFU will definitely not be able to do quickly is restore the destroyed railway bridges, that takes a long time to rebuild.

Just make an analysis of all rail corridors between Ukraine and neighboring countries. And in each of these corridors, a critical point was found in the form of a railway bridge, the failure of which would paralyze the transport line and significantly complicate railway logistics.

The following is the ideal list of railway bridges, whose single failure will paralyze the rail supply of western countries. A total of 21 bridges would need to be decommissioned. If at least one of the bridges survives, the AFU will still have the opportunity to deliver weapons and military equipment to Ukraine by rail.

Vinnytska region -
railway bridge (Mohyliv-Podilskyi settlement) - 48.460294, 27.766381
Border bridge over the Dniester River (Mohyliv-Podilskyi settlement) — 48.449110, 27.779921

Volynska region -
Double railway bridge (Kovel settlement) — 51.226367, 24.700441 | 51.228894, 24.700672
Railway bridge over the Putylivka river (Romashkivka settlement) - 50.781638, 25.804592
Railway bridge over the Stokhid River (Goloby settlement) - 51.029249, 25.108861
Railway bridge over the river Stokhid (Zayachivka settlement) - 51.282653, 25.206144

Transcarpathia Region -
Double rail bridge over the Vecha River (Volovets settlement) - 48.710053, 23.155696
Railway bridge (viaduct) over the Uzh River (Uzhok settlement) - 48.985140, 22.843154
Railway bridge over the Tisza River (Kruhlyi settlement) - 47.963468, 24.189143

Lviv region -
Double railway bridge over Vereshytsya River (Kam'yanobrid settlement) — 49.842649, 23.651923 | 49.843007, 23.651934
Railway bridge (Stryi settlement) — 49.244127, 23.856522 | 49.269314, 23.886442
Railway bridge over the river Mlynivka (Zavady settlement) - 50.074812, 23.896215
Railway bridge over the Rata River (Mezhyrichchya settlement) - 50.343717, 24.231357
Railway bridge over the river Dniester (Sambir settlement) - 49.506856, 23.222314
Railway bridge over the Strvyazh River (Khlopchytsi settlement) - 49.605139, 23.415355

Odessa Region -
Railway drawbridge on the coast of Odessa (Karolino-Bugaz-Zatoka settlement) - 46.076304, 30.469847

Others -
Bridge over the river Dniester in Khmelnitsky (Makarovka-Velyka Slobidka settlement) - 48.555192, 26.743138
Bridge over the river Siret in Cherepkovtsy (Staryi Vovchynets settlement) - 48.014033, 25.959089
Bridge over the Stalyneshty River in Chernivtsi (Novoselyts'kyi settlement) - 48.242906, 26.541793

From what I remember of that war, the Russians probably only attacked the bridge in the Odessa region more than once, but they didn't do the same with the other bridges.